Can Tiger Woods replicate success of past Masters comeback in 2015?

Everyone knows the story -- the fire-hydrant, the infidelity, the angry, possibly golf club wielding wife. You know about the scandal Tiger Woods put himself in the middle of in 2009. There are a lot of things we know and a lot of things we don’t know about Tiger’s personal life, but one thing is certain: that 2009 incident greatly impacted the career of Tiger Woods.

After Tiger careened his Cadillac Escalade into a fire hydrant, his career was forever changed. In the coming weeks, allegations about Woods ran wild and he took extended time off from the game in order to get his personal life pieced together. While he was gone, he went to rehab (of some sort), he tried to mend a broken relationship, and tried to become a better father. As far as we know, he didn’t play any golf.

His absence from the Tour was noticed. Many of the tournaments Woods normally played saw record low TV numbers. When Woods finally announced he was ready to continue his career, the golf world was pumped. They were also interested in the just what kind of golfer we would be getting back.

Tiger made his return to competitive golf at the 2010 Masters. It made sense that he would return at Augusta. It is a course he knows very well. The fans at the Masters are held up as respectful and even though Tiger had done some ugly things, they would gladly welcome him back.

But how would he play? Like I said, the guy hadn’t played golf in several months. Was he going to be rusty? Did he really care about golf given his personal life was in shambles? These were very real questions.

Woods surprised most. Starting off with 68 gave him his best opening-round score ever at the Masters, and he was only two off the lead of Fred Couples. Woods followed that round up with a 70 on Friday to put himself into contention going to the weekend. He stayed close heading to Sunday, but three opening bogeys and an inexplicable 3-putt from six feet at 14 were his undoing. Even with two eagles on the round, Tiger was too far back to catch Phil Mickelson.

Still, Tiger’s T4 finish was impressive. He battled allergies and a swing that in no way resembled the swing he used to win six times in 2009. He grinded and finished five shots back of Mickelson.

So with all that background, the obvious question becomes, can Tiger duplicate his performance from 2010 in 2015? There are many similarities between now and then, many are making the logical conclusion that it is possible he returns to the game and it all comes back at Augusta.

On the surface, yes, it seems possible. Woods very well could come out of nowhere, with limited expectations, and shock the world. The long absence from competitive golf may seem comparable, but it might just be the only similarity between 2010 and 2015.

For one thing, Tiger wasn’t dealing with some sort of chipping yip problem in 2010. During the 2009 season, Woods ranked No. 1 on Tour in scrambling. He got up and down almost 70 percent of the time. By comparison, in 2014, Tiger got up and down around 50 percent of the time. And in 2015, that number drops to 27 percent. Granted, that only includes a handful of rounds, but you get the point. The last time we saw Tiger, he resembled a 20-handicap. He simply could not chip the ball on the green.

On the unforgiving Augusta National surfaces, those attempts will get you laughed off the course.

For arguments sake, let’s say Tiger has solved his chipping issues. Well, his ball striking hasn’t been much better. In 2009, Woods ranked 16th on Tour, hitting nearly 70% of his greens in regulation. In 2014, that number dropped to 60%. In 2015, in limited action, he hit 50%.

And finally, putting. In 2009, he ranked No. 2 in strokes gained and No. 10 in total putting. As you can imagine, it was not nearly as easy on the greens for Tiger in 2014 and 2015. Augusta National features some of the most challenging and undulating greens in the world. It’s not a place you would want to be without your best putting stroke.

So is it possible for Tiger to contend this week, given all the information above and just how far his game his falling over the past 12 months? Of course. This is the best golfer of a generation and I have a feeling he’s not done yet. But the numbers are staggeringly different. Woods is coming off a year in which he battled injuries and yet another swing change. In 2009, he was locked in before his leave of absence.

Anything is possible with Tiger. He arrived this week and immediately went to the chipping area to show off his short game for the Golf Channel cameras. We didn’t see any of that ugliness from earlier this year, but it’s hard to extrapolate much from a couple practice rounds. You don’t want to overreact, but this is a guy that has shocked us time and time again. And this is a course he knows so well at this point that he can work his around it and post a respectable score with a game that has major flaws. Whatever happens, the golf world will hang on every shot.