Players Championship 2015 predictions and picks: Can Tiger Woods contend at TPC Sawgrass?

The game’s “fifth major” returns this week and every big name is in attendance at TPC Sawgrass. Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, who we’re already saying will have the greatest rivalry in the history of golf, are paired together for the first two days after winning the two biggest events of the past month. Tiger Woods returns after missing last year’s Players, which would have been a defense of his 2013 title. And there’s also the richest purse in golf at one of the game’s most recognizable venues. The SB Nation golf staff bats around some picks and predictions for the week at The Players.

Mark: Both are obviously playing well leading in. It’s been a weird tournament for McIlroy historically. A few missed cuts early, but back-to-back top 10s. I’ll still give the edge to Spieth, who I think will play very well this week.

Emily: Boy Wonder tops Heir Jordan at Sawgrass this week. McIlroy’s No. 1 for a reason and may have heard enough after Spieth’s impressive Augusta victory about how the Masters champ was the new Tiger, new Rory, the face of golf’s next generation, etc. Rory’s on a roll after defeating all Match Play challengers despite not bringing his “A” game to San Francisco. Though Spieth was knocked out early, he’s well-rested and may have that advantage over McIlroy, who could be in for something of a letdown after having to dig deep to come from behind several times and play like a billion holes last week.

Brendan: It’s hard to choose between the two guys that appear to be so far ahead of everyone else right now. I just want to soak in that first- and second-round pairing and give thanks to the PGA Tour for putting them together for the first two days.

If I must decide, I’ll take the world No. 2, Spieth. McIlroy just reminded everyone why he’s still the No. 1 talent with that WGC Match Play win last week, but he’s got a shaky history at Sawgrass. It’s a course that doesn’t reward length as much, especially if you can’t put it in the fairway. McIlroy has admitted this is a Pete Dye course that doesn’t fit his eye as well as some of the others he has in that self-described “love-hate” relationship with this course architect.

Spieth has the shots to work his way around and past trouble, which we saw last year when he didn’t make a bogey until his 58th hole in the middle of his round on Sunday. I’ll go with Spieth to contend this week while Rory middles around on the weekend.

Brendan: Sure. It can claim that title as the fifth major. That doesn’t mean it’s a major though. When Tiger Woods or Adam Scott or Sergio Garcia or Phil Mickelson discuss how many majors they have won, they don’t casually add their Players titles to the total. The self-hype and promotion can become a bit nauseating at a venue that’s not considered a classic or traditional major championship course, but rather a stadium venue. But TPC Sawgrass does test every part of the game. I think the Tour does a great job year-round, and it sucks they don’t get to control a major championship. But whether we label this as the fifth major or not, its status is not going to match the four ahead of it any time soon, if ever.

Mark: It consistently draws a major caliber field. The purse is major caliber. The course may not be up to the standard of Augusta, but it’s no slouch either. I think that combination is good enough for the fifth major designation. However, I also don’t think that means much. It comes with a hard-earned trophy and a nice paycheck, but it still doesn’t have the historical relevance or prestige of a major.

Emily: The hype alone is major-ish, the field is the deepest and strongest of the year, and the anticipation of watching Sergio dump a bucket of balls in the water in front of the famed island green seems more alluring than anything the PGA Championship can drum up. But when No. 1 doesn’t show up until a day before kickoff, no matter how much Tim Finchem wants to pump the tires of a “fifth major,” it’s just another tournament on the PGA Tour schedule. “It’s the tour that probably runs it, so that’s what they’re trying to elevate,” Tiger said Tuesday in a post-practice round media scrum. “I think that us as players — I can’t speak for everyone, but certainly me — I think you have to look at them [majors and The Players] in probably two different categories.”

Trevor: Sure, it can be the fifth major. It does have a great field and a challenging golf course. But, I don’t think it means anything. The history and tradition of the four majors trump anything that has happened at The Players. Those four championships are the championships that most players will be judged on. At the risk of sounding like an old man, we should keep it that way.

Emily: Of course it’s overhyped; it’s the fifth major! And, sure, it’s a bit contrived but it’s also one of the more compelling holes in golf that can make or break the next Players champion. Must-see TV.

Brendan: I used to think it was an overpraised circus hole but I’ve totally come around on it. It’s a completely unique, memorable, and fun way to end a round, especially when it’s the penultimate hole of the championship. Traditionalists probably think it’s dopey -- I used to -- but what the hell, this makes things interesting for a larger number of people and that’s good for the game.

Trevor: It’s definitely a gimmicky hole. But it’s fun. I think the Tour needs some fun. They play classic golf courses all year. Why not throw in a hole like No. 17 that can change the outcome of a tournament on one swing.

Mark: I enjoy it, although I think it peaked in the late 1990s or early 2000s. It doesn’t seem to be playing as hard recently. I think there is a certain allure to it similar to the U.S. Open. It can be fun to see players so challenged where they could pull a Bob Tway and card a 12. Unlike the U.S. Open though, they don’t have to slog through 72 brutal holes and instead it’s just a once-a-round mental challenge.

Mark: I’ll go with Danny Willett. He’s coming off a good showing at the WGC Match Play, but has really been solid all season in limited appearances. A poor round in a couple events cost him, but I think he’s starting to play consistently well enough that he’ll sneak in a PGA Tour win sooner than later.

Emily: Rickie Fowler and Ian Poulter go into overtime and decide to split the trophy. Overrate this, boys!

Trevor: How about Gary Woodland at 75/1? He finished T11 last year and got all the way to the finals last week at the Match Play. He has to get a big win one of these days, right?

Brendan: Ryan Palmer is 80/1 to win this week but in the top five in strokes-gained this year on the PGA Tour. He had a poor 0-3 stay at Match Play, but he’s been one of the most consistent players on the Tour all year. He’s a got a tee-to-green game that can work at TPC Sawgrass and that’s the best value that far down the board (he was also my darkhorse at the Masters, so I’ll keep doing this until it works out).

Mark: He still had plenty of work to do following the Masters, but played well enough there to make the cut and even sneak into a late Sunday group. If he’s made similar progress on his game, he should be in good enough form to be a factor. I think he’ll finish in the top 25, but not as a factor on Sunday.

Emily: Flip a coin; heads he makes the cut, tails he doesn’t. Yep, Tiger has two wins, including the one from 2013, but he also has a pair of WDs, a T53, a T40 and bunch in the 30s. He did sound extremely tentative about this “fresh” swing change he’s implementing (what is this, about the 353rd time he’s tweaked to or overhauled his motion?), which could give him fits on a Sawgrass track that demands accuracy. Then again, conventional wisdom had him bombing out of the Masters, so, as the tour slogan says, “Anything’s possible.”

(Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Brendan: Not expecting a good week from the two-time winner. It’s hard to pick against Tiger after what we watched at Augusta. There’s no way I thought he had a chance to play well and almost everyone expected a series of embarrassing chip shots. But his short game looked as good as ever. The long game, however, was still the spotty mess we’ve seen pop up in recent years. You can get away with some of those misses at Augusta, where the fairways are bigger and the recoveries are out there. But Sawgrass, perhaps more than any other course, yields almost no margin for error for misses off the tee and on approach. You also have to shape shots in all different directions, something we know Tiger is not totally comfortable with these days.

Tiger didn’t look or sound particularly confident on Tuesday during practice either, when he reportedly kept missing the fairway left. It’s hard to count Tiger out of anything, but this is a course that’s not been the kindest to him over the years, unlike some of those other annual stops at Bay Hill, Doral and Firestone. I don’t expect him to make the cut, but if he does, I don’t think he’ll be a factor and contend on the weekend.

Trevor: He seems to be struggling after his break-up and the anniversary of his father’s death keeping him from sleep. He says he is practicing well. But then again, he often stinks at this event. BUT THEN AGAIN, he won it the last time he played. Uh, I’ll hedge my bets and say middle of the pack. We never know with Tiger anymore.

Emily: Rory. Because that’s where the dart landed.

Trevor: I’ll say Jason Day. He’s won already this year, plus, he ranks in the top 10 on Tour in driving distance and greens in regulation. That is a good thing everywhere, but especially Sawgrass.

Brendan: Louis Oosthuizen’s form over the first quarter of the season is hard to ignore. He’s long been reputed as having the sweetest swing in golf. It’s just that his health has been a mess. The one-time Open Champion’s body has held up and he looked great last week winning his pool at the Match Play. He’s got the swing, and the consistency has been there this year from tee to green (top 10 in strokes gained t2g). It’s not the biggest name in the field, but I like Oosty to get the second biggest win of his career and take the 2015 Players.

Mark: I’m going Spieth. He was in perfect position to win the thing last year, starting the final round with the lead. Sunday was not kind to him and he couldn’t’ keep pace with Martin Kaymer. We now know he can close out a major event and he’s still playing as well as anyone in the world. I think the 21-year-old cashes another huge check this week.