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U.S. Open 2015 odds: Don’t waste your money on Tiger Woods

The U.S. Open occasionally produces a totally unexpected winner. But that still doesn’t mean you should consider Tiger Woods winning at Chambers Bay.

Eileen Blass-USA TODAY

There are plenty of ways to waste money, but one of the most unsatisfying methods would be betting on Tiger Woods to win U.S. Open 2015.

Tiger starts the week at Chambers Bay with 33/1 odds to win his fourth U.S. Open. That’s higher than normal for the 14-time major winner, but it’s still incongruous with everything we know about this current iteration of Tiger. When he was at his best, Woods drew absurdly low odds, sometimes 3/1, to win majors. And even when he wasn’t at his best, he was still the favorite because the oddsmakers knew the public money would go running to the one star who overwhelmed the game.

Tiger was 28/1 to win the Masters at the start of the week in Augusta. Given that he was coming off a two-month self-imposed hiatus to see if he could chip a golf ball anymore, those odds seemed outrageous. A 28/1 line to make the cut seemed more appropriate than a bet to win. But he, incomprehensibly, showed up at the Masters with no sign of what we’d all been calling chipping “yips.” He even spent much of the weekend inside the top 10 (he was a long ways from the Jordan Spieth lead, but he was still there!).

Now he rolls to the U.S. Open without that mysterious absence from the game proceeding this major. But what we’ve seen in full public view at his last couple tournaments is not much better than the unknowable state of his game before the Masters. The dead-last finish at Memorial and the career-worst Round of 85 had a little bit of everything -- the continued wildness off the tee, inconsistent irons, shaky putting and a few signs of those chipping troubles popping up here and there. Tiger “rebounded” with a final round 74, saying he was “finally able to hit shots ‘we’ were looking for on Sunday.” It was still a 2-over round.

Some argue that this Chambers Bay venue may actually suit Tiger and all his weaknesses better than the normal U.S. Open track. The fairways are allegedly more open, so his biggest problem, bombing them right and left off the property, may be mitigated a little by that. But it’s still a major championship, and the toughest one at that. Tiger’s form and this swing alteration he’s going through with Chris Como are nowhere near ready to compete, let alone contend, at places like Memorial. Some books have Tiger as 50/1, but even at that value, it’s not a wise choice.

While Tiger languishes, his Nike friend Rory McIlroy stays No. 1 in the world and the favorite to win every tournament he enters -- even when he’s coming off two straight missed cuts. Rory had his most dominating PGA Tour performance at the Wells Fargo, and it appeared we were set up for another summer of repeated major contention and titles. But then he tanked out early in two straight Euro Tour starts to take some steam out of that momentum. He’s still the top talent in the game, though, and while he shared co-favorite status with Spieth for a bit at The Players, he’s back at 6/1 this week.

Spieth is right behind Rory as a clear No. 2 at 7/1, and then there’s everybody else further down the board. Here are some of the early-week odds to win (via Bovada):

Player Odds to Win
Rory McIlroy 6/1
Jordan Spieth 7/1
Dustin Johnson 16/1
Justin Rose 18/1
Phil Mickelson 18/1
Rickie Fowler 18/1
Adam Scott 20/1
Jason Day 22/1
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Bubba Watson 28/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
Hideki Matsuyama 33/1
Jim Furyk 33/1
Jimmy Walker 33/1
Martin Kaymer 33/1
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Patrick Reed 33/1
Tiger Woods 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Brooks Koepka 50/1
Billy Horschel 55/1
Keegan Bradley 55/1
Paul Casey 55/1
Graeme McDowell 66/1
Hunter Mahan 66/1
JB Holmes 66/1
Lee Westwood 66/1
Louis Oosthuizen 66/1
Ryan Moore 66/1
Webb Simpson 66/1
Zach Johnson 66/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Byeong-Hun An 80/1
Charl Schwartzel 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Chris Kirk 80/1
Harris English 80/1
Ian Poulter 80/1
Jason Dufner 80/1
Luke Donald 80/1
Steve Stricker 90/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Gary Woodland 100/1
Graham DeLaet 100/1
Jamie Donaldson 100/1
Kevin Na 100/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Victor Dubuisson 100/1
Angel Cabrera 125/1
Brendon Todd 125/1
Ernie Els 125/1
Nick Watney 125/1
Russell Henley 125/1
Ryan Palmer 125/1
Shane Lowry 125/1
Alexander Noren 150/1
Brendon de Jonge 150/1
Danny Willett 150/1
John Senden 150/1
Jonas Blixt 150/1
Kevin Stadler 150/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 150/1
Thomas Bjorn 150/1
Thorbjørn Olesen 150/1
Bernd Wiesberger 175/1
K.J. Choi 175/1
Kevin Chappell 175/1
Matt Jones 175/1
Seung-Yul Noh 175/1
Stewart Cink 175/1
Bo Van Pelt 200/1
Boo Weekley 200/1
David Toms 200/1
Erik Compton 200/1
Geoff Ogilvy 200/1
Joost Luiten 200/1
Kevin Streelman 200/1
Matt Every 200/1
Nicolas Colsaerts 200/1
Padraig Harrington 200/1
Retief Goosen 200/1
Stephen Gallacher 200/1
Thongchai Jaidee 200/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 250/1
Matteo Manassero 250/1
Darren Clarke 500/1
Y.E. Yang 500/1

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