2015 U.S. Open picks and predictions for Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson and Chambers Bay

The U.S. Open is known as the “toughest test in golf.” The punishing setup and big numbers than can dot a scorecard often make it unpredictable and can produce some previously-unknown winners. This year, in particular, is hard to handicap because it’s a new venue that no one knows yet and where no player has any history. It’s also completely different from a typical U.S. Open course. Nevertheless, the SB Nation duffers sort through what we’ve heard and seen this week and attempt to figure out what will happen at Chambers Bay.

Mark: I like Francesco Molinari at 100/1. He hits a ton of greens in regulation and is No. 1 on tour in driving accuracy. Consistently doing both this week would be a great recipe for success.

Brendan: A month ago I would not have picked Keegan Bradley for anything. But he’s shown improved form in his last two starts, and he’s 80/1 right now. Those odds seem about right, so it’s not necessarily great value, but I think he’s got the best chance to win from the group that far down the board. He’s played well at the U.S. Open before, and always handled himself just fine at the Open Championship, which is the kind of challenge this course presents.

Emily: Gotta go with Kevin Na. The winner of the 2011 Justin Timberlake event and former While We’re Young poster child has ditched those intentional whiffs and worked diligently to pick up the pace, but the six-hour rounds expected this week should suit the, um, methodical, 110/1 long shot (as of Tuesday evening) just fine. The 31-year-old South Korean has also had five top-10 finishes in nine PGA Tour contests since February.

Emily: Tiger Woods. Coming off a DFL at the Memorial and describing Chambers Bay as “brutal,” “frustrating,” and “uphill,” do not bode well for the 195th-ranked player in the world. If only the three-time winner of his national championship could find a way to bring those spot-on tee shots from the range to the generous landing areas on the course.

Adam Scott. With a premium on putting this week and Scott struggling so with his broomstick, Chambers Bay would not seem a good fit for the 2013 Masters winner. Unless Steve Williams can actually hit those shots, bringing Tiger’s ex out of retirement for the summer majors won’t be enough to get Scott to the weekend.

Bubba Watson. The two-time Masters champ periscoped into Chambers Bay and buried a ridiculously serpentine, 20-foot putt, to the disbelief and delight of his bazillion Twitter followers. But, as just about everyone has noted, this U.S. Open is really a British Open (everybody drink!) and Watson missed the cut last year at Hoylake. Plus, the magic word this week is patience (see six-hour rounds). Bubba, over and out. #urwelcome

Mark: Sergio Garcia has finished T38-or-worse in five of his last seven U.S. Opens. He was awful in his last event -- the Irish Open -- and that could continue this week with an early exit.

Brendan: Bubba -- always Bubba at the U.S. Open. I’m just disappointed that he didn’t have a Tuesday press conference, which is the usual U.S. Open ritual that confirms he hates the course and has checked out on his chances for the week.

Mark: I enjoy it when it’s a tough but fair challenge. Hard for the sake of hard, especially when it borders on impossible just feels forced and leads to a lesser product. Ultimately, we watch because we want to see the best players in the world put their skills on display. When a U.S. Open course allows for that to happen and pushes players to their max, I think the event is the No. 2 major of the year. When the difficulty is to the point where players are punished for good shots, then it’s just four days of who gets lucky. We’ll see if that’s the case this week.

Emily: The Masters -- despite being run by a bunch of green-jacketed fascists at a club with a repugnant history of racism and sexism -- sucks me in every year with its blasted azaleas and that whole “spring has sprung” thing. But the U.S. Open, with a different venue each year set up to make the best golfers in the world look like mini hackers, usually lives up to its billing as the toughest mental challenge in golf. This year, the course, with one lone tree, will play more like a firm and fast British Open links-style track (chug-a-lug) than a traditional U.S. Open layout and will either stage a truly thrilling tournament or be a complete bust. Either way -- appointment viewing.

Brendan: I tend to prefer birdies that bring a larger group of contenders into the fold and create more leader board movement throughout the weekend. At the U.S. Open, there’s always that opportunity for a car crash stretch from one of the leaders, but those are usually the only big moves that happen in this championship. While the style of the course this year is dramatically different, the way the ground is running like concrete and the unpredictability of the fescue green surfaces should it make it hard to put together a charge. And there is going to be an element of luck because of that unpredictability -- good shots will get really bad results. I’d rather watch a birdie-fest -- Valhalla isn’t all that great a course, but the moves and counter moves on the weekend at the PGA always seem more fun, even if it’s less “prestigious.”

Brendan: I think the USGA is legitimately worried about how dry and baked-out this course has gotten and could get over the next four days. The greens were already extreme with dramatic slopes and undulations, and if they stay as hard as concrete, it will get ugly. Mike Davis said they put significant amounts of water on the course the first few days this week, and with only a little rain in the forecast for one day during the tournament, it seems like Chambers will brutalize the best in the world. So much of this is dependent on setup, and it’s always dangerous to predict the winning score at a U.S. Open (remember Merion?), but I think we’re looking at an over-par winner (2 or 3-over).

Mark: I’m expecting the winning score to be a couple strokes under par, maybe 3-under. If the USGA sets up the pins to maximize difficulty all four days, the scores are going to jump over par. Instead, I think we’ll see tough conditions early then have the setups ease into the weekend to make birdies possible on the weekend and allow players to dip into red numbers.

Emily: Anywhere from 5-under to 10-over. Those greens, man.

Mark: I expect Tiger Woods to play two rounds of golf. His form is just too sporadic for him to even sneak into a backdoor top 20. The course is going to require precision and that’s just not part of Woods’ game right now. I don’t expect him to finish last, but something like 75-76 to miss the cut seems about right.

Emily: Does anyone know what to expect from Tiger, this week or any other? A two-way miss off the tee and some of those short-game issues popping up again at the Memorial were not good signs, though spacious, baked-out fairways, seriously tight lies and severely undulating greens may negate the need for crisp drives and wedge play. Woods is, of course, in great shape, but the rigorous, 8-mile hike around Chambers Bay taxed even Dustin Johnson, and Tiger, with those those wobbly wheels and that balky back, did not even want to walk 18 holes during practice sessions. Add to that, Jason Day’s candid observation that the former world No. 1 may not have the motivation needed to “climb Mt. Everest” again, and this could be shaping up to be another “career worst” stint for Woods.

Brendan: He will make the cut. His entire game went bad in that Saturday round of 85 at Memorial, but it’s the tee ball that is consistently his biggest problem right now. This course does not have those typical U.S. Open narrow fairways and the landing areas are huge for Tiger’s wild blocks to the right and yanks down the left. His irons have been sharp, and there will be a fair amount of strategizing this week that mitigates some of the natural weaknesses Tiger has versus the younger generation. He’s not going to win, but he will be here for four days and finish inside the top 40.

(Photo by Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)

Emily: The popular notion is that this is the last best chance for Phil, who turned 45 on Tuesday, to complete the slam. He gained momentum and confidence from his final-round 65 in Memphis and has certainly crammed for the toughest test in golf: after several practice rounds at Chambers Bay, he and Bones have a game plan devised to attack each hole. Lefty is also one of the few contestants who -- publicly, at least -- claims to like the track, a positive outlook that Jack Nicklaus contends gives a player an immediate edge over his opponents. Is it even possible that Mickelson’s patience and creativity on a course that will require both in great quantity will finally pay off this year? The Magic 8 ball says, sure, why not?

Brendan: I don’t think Phil is quite there yet with his game. He’s always talking about how he’s close to turning a corner, or has already turned it. But, despite that finish in Memphis, he’s too inconsistent right now to win this event and there are too many big numbers out there lurking for Phil. His entire year revolves around the majors, and the U.S. Open is the white whale of his career. We were already hammering the narrative of him winning his first last year at Pinehurst, where his love-hate relationship with the U.S. Open started. Nothing ever materialized there. I think he puts too much emphasis on this event to bomb out so he’ll make the cut, but I don’t think he’ll be in the mix of contenders on Sunday.

Emily: Boy Wonder exudes confidence coming into the week, but there were those two straight missed cuts (the most recent on a links course at the Irish Open) after five consecutive weeks of competition that left him exhausted. But then he took two weeks off, and he has those two Ws -- at Doral and Quail Hollow -- as well as that Claret Jug from last year. Expect No. 1 to play like he’s the best player in the world.

Mark: The last we saw McIlroy in the states he was playing very well. He struggled, however, recently in Europe which is concerning. That said, he should be right at home on a links style course and I’d expect him to be in contention come Sunday with at least a top 10 finish.

Brendan: He’s got his Masters -- it doesn’t get better than that. There hasn’t exactly been a let-up since winning the green jacket, like we’ve seen with others who get that April title. He should have the lag putts in his bag that Chambers will require -- no one in the world may be better right now. Spieth will top 10 it this week, but taking the first two legs of a grand slam season seems like a stretch, no?

Mark: He certainly has the game to win, but I wonder if he’ll have the nuance to win on a course of this style. He had some issues last year at Hoylake and I think experience is going to be a deciding factor this week. Not that he hasn’t overcome that plenty of times before. I think a finish in the 25-40 range.

Emily: He has distinct advantages this week -- an excellent short game, a 19th ranking on the tour in strokes gained-putting, and the extensive local knowledge from his bagman Michael Greller, who used to caddie at Chambers. Spieth will contend this week.

Mark: Mr. Major. Until Rickie Fowler doesn’t play well in a major, I expect him to contend. He has seven top 20 finishes in his last eight major starts, including five top 10s. He just seems to raise his game to another level in the big events.

Emily: Chambers Bay is a putter’s paradise. Rickie’s 124th in the league in putting. The math is not in his favor.

Mark: In my eyes, the U.S. Open is going to come down to the greens. But with how they are set up, the performance on the green is less important than the shot into the green. I think it’s going to take a superb short game and the experience and creativity to take what the course gives. Every shot isn’t going to be traditional, but the person who sets themselves up the best coming into the green is going to win. If I’m picking a winner on short game and creativity, my obvious pick is Phil Mickelson. He’s been so close so many times in this event and I think his short-game shot-making skills are enough to push him to the top for the career grand slam.

Brendan: Last year, Martin Kaymer broke a long drought and won The Players Championship in May. He then followed it up with a runaway U.S. Open title a month later. I think it happens again this year, and Rickie Fowler takes his first major championship this week after breaking that long drought at TPC Sawgrass in May.

Emily: It’s Phil’s time. Right?

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