Jordan Spieth shines and Bubba Watson implodes: The good, bad and ugly from the Masters

The 2016 Masters started exactly how the 2015 Masters left off -- with dominance from Jordan Spieth and his rivals stumbling around him.

Despite last year’s win, expectations weren’t terribly high for the world’s No. 1 player entering the week. Spieth had “struggled” in recent weeks on tour, often battling a balky putter which took center stage at times at last week’s Shell Houston Open. The Texan hadn’t contended since his win to start 2016 at Kapalua, and it was totally reasonable for a certain unnamed golf blogger to envision Spieth closer to the cut line than the top of the leaderboard. It was, I promise, I swear. Please don’t laugh at me. Keep reading.

But Spieth’s first round play might be a bit of an opportunity to examine how we talk about World Number One, and our expectations for him at major championships. Sure, form is the most reliable way for any golf prognosticator to predict a given outcome for a given player at a tournament -- and Spieth had been “struggling.” But struggling for Jordan Spieth is not struggling for you or I or even a replacement-level PGA Tour professional. Struggling for Spieth is missing one cut in his last 9 starts and having no other finishes worse than 21st in that stretch. Has he been putting as well as he did during his near-historic run in 2015? Probably not. Is he hitting the ball as well as during that stretch? Hard to tell. But the mounting evidence states that how Jordan Spieth is striking the golf ball entering the week is a poor predictor of how he will perform in a major championship -- simply because it is a major championship.

Spieth doesn’t hit it long for a Tour Pro, and he won’t be the first player mentioned if you ask around tour about the best ballstriking or shot-making. But at the age of 22, Spieth has become a grinder. His game isn’t as dependent as a Rory McIlroy -- a player who’s openly admitted that he just won’t have it some weeks -- or others as having the golf swing perfectly in order. When his magical short game is in order, there’s no player on Tour that’s able to get more out of less-than-stellar play. And with more high winds in order for the coming days, that should scare the rest of the field hoping to run him down before Sunday.

Let’s roundup the rest of what was an up-and-down day at Augusta.

Seven years after making his major championship debut at Augusta as an amateur, the Kiwi turned in one of the more impressive rounds of the afternoon as the winds picked up. Lee didn’t make a single bogey over his last 11 holes en route to a 4-under 68. This is the first time Lee’s been in contention in a major championship. With big names ahead and behind, it’s worth watching how he opens his round early on Friday. If he’s able to avoid an early stumble, he might be set for a late Saturday pairing.

Only two players not named Jordan Spieth reached the 5-under mark for any period of time at Augusta on a windy Thursday. One was Lowry. The Irishman went out in 31 but gave one back on the way in. It’s still a remarkably impressive round for a player with one career start, a missed cut, at Augusta. Lowry’s not completely new to this stage -- he finished in a tie for 9th at Chambers Bay last year -- so let’s see how he responds to sleeping in a T-2 position overnight.

Erase the first four holes from the golf tournament and Sergio’s as much of a story as Spieth. El Nino played an extremely El Nino round -- opening with two bogeys in the opening four holes and then closing with four straight birdies from 13-to-16 and five birdies over the final ten.

Sergio’s been here before plenty of times, he’s got the good end of the draw considering the expected windy conditions, and turned in the best closing nine -- a 32 -- of any in the field today. Could we see a Spieth-Sergio final group to start the day Saturday?

Paul Casey, Justin Rose and Ian Poulter all sit at 3-under after day one and each have the pedigree to win at Augusta. Danny Willett surrendered a bogey to fall out of that group on the 18th -- but each of these four are all names to watch on Friday.

The tone of this piece and storylines for Friday would’ve been totally different had McIlroy been able to avoid two bogeys on the final three holes on Friday. But don’t be mistaken. Rory’s far, far, far from out of it at 2-under with three rounds to play -- and entering the better side of the draw tomorrow. You can’t win the tournament on Thursday, but you can lose it. Rory didn’t do that. He’ll be disappointed with his finish, sure. But if you’re looking for weekend fireworks, don’t be discouraged.

What could’ve been. We were oh-so-close to having a television executive’s dream of a Spieth-Day-McIlroy leaderboard after the first day, but Day’s collapse came fast with a triple-bogey on the par-3 16th.

Bad news: He’s 6 behind Jordan Spieth. Good news: Day was really good in tough conditions today for far longer than he was, well, uh really bad. He’ll need an early run -- but he’s hardly out of it.

What to make of Phil’s round on Thursday? It’s hard to say. Unlike Day, Mickelson didn’t spend the majority of the morning in red numbers -- only reaching -1-under with a birdie on No. 17 before giving it right back on the closing hole. Six back with three rounds to play isn’t too far out of it to make noise, but it’s worth wondering if Phil has enough birdies in his tank to make up the gap.

Bubba walked onto the 9th green at Augusta at 3-under-par. He stood on the 18th tee at 4-over-par. Please pray for Ted Scott tomorrow, friends.

Rickie was in fine shape coming off the front side at even par, aaaaaaand then he went and shot forty-dang-four on the backside. Cool. Can’t wait for more WELL, YOU SEE, RICKIE’S OVERRATED AND HE JUST WEARS THOSE HIGHTOPS AND JOGGERS FOR ATTENTION takes. Please shoot 62 tomorrow, Rickie.

Thomas was a trendy pick by some to contend as a rookie, but he looked like exactly such on Thursday. At 4-over par, he’ll have to make a little noise to see the weekend tomorrow.

Ernie. ERNIE. Not like this, buddy.

1. How does Jordan Spieth fare in the afternoon winds? Spieth said himself he played as well as he possibly could today. Does he fall back down to his 2016 mean tomorrow? He’ll flip sides of the draw tomorrow -- and winds are expected to still be a major factor. If he’s able to post a similar number as today, the golf tournament could be all but over. Anything in the 70s? It should be open season heading to the weekend.

2. Can Jason Day play his way back in it early? A 9:59 a.m. start will give him time to make up ground before Spieth takes the course and has a chance to stretch out his lead -- and that’s big for more than weather conditions. Starting your round six behind the leader is much less psychologically daunting than if Spieth got on the course first and posted another 68 or 69. A front-side 33 or better would put Day right back in business tomorrow.

3. Hope that Tom Watson makes the cut. After posting a 2-over 74, Watson’s in position to be the oldest man to make the cut at Augusta at age 66. He’s already said this will be his final Masters appearance -- and likely his final major championship start. It’s still unbelievable that he was one putt away from winning a major just seven years ago, and a Sunday walk up No. 18 at Augusta would be the just honor for one of the game’s all-time greats.