Players Championship picks and predictions: Jordan Spieth returns at TPC Sawgrass

“It’s not a major ... but it should be a major.”

The Players occupies some weird but dignified space in golf these days. Its prestige has never seemed higher and last year’s Rickie Fowler finish was arguably the best in the event’s history. It will be hard to match that but every big gun in the game is back at TPC Sawgrass for the PGA Tour’s premier event and the richest purse in the game. Some picks and predictions for the weekend ahead.

Emily: For sure, Spieth is rested and ready following Spring Break with the boys after his Augusta debacle. But there will likely be some rust in his first competitive rounds since the Masters. And while he finished T4 in his Players debut in 2014, he missed the cut last year, so best to keep expectations relatively low this week for the two-time major winner.

Kyle: He’ll be fine -- and if he’s not it’ll have more to do with the layoff than Augusta. Jordan’s taken the loss in stride (See, #SB2K16). And, again, it was one bad hole of golf. He didn’t start hitting hosel rockets on the last six holes. There’s no swing flaw, there was no out-of-order thought process that led to what occurred on the 12th. He made a less-than-great decision and hit a couple bad shots in a row. It happens. Now, if he made wholesale changes to his swing due to the one bad hole of golf, I’ll be concerned. But Jordan’s too smart to do that, I think. Don’t expect him to win considering the layoff, but I’d be shocked if he wasn’t a part of TV coverage on Sunday.

Brendan: Spieth has, for him, taken a really long break away from the game and said there would be moments of not “rust” but “not quite there” (whatever that means exactly). We have very little record to go on with Spieth here and I think we should set aside his MC last year. This would seem to be a course that rewards some of his strengths and mitigates the advantages some of his closest competitors have, like those big booming Jason Day and Rory McIlroy drives. I expect him to be back playing on the weekend at TPC Sawgrass and inside the top 20 -- something similar to his up-and-down week at the Houston Open, which we all forgot about, prior to that unforgettable Masters.

Trevor: I expect him to play well. I believe him when he says he’s over the Masters. It’s going to be a wild summer and Spieth is going to be just fine. He thrives when playing with the world’s best.

Kyle: There’s probably good reason for that, too. Sawgrass isn’t really a bombers course off the tee where Rory & Jason can take advantage of their length. I’m still bullish on both players right now, but Rory more so this week. That might be reading too much into a performance at a Quail Hollow layout that he loves, but I think we’re overdue for a Rory win right now. He’s not my pick, but I think he’ll hang around the leaderboard. I’ll give Jason a week off from contention and take a futures bet on him at the Memorial in a couple weeks.

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Emily: Not for Rory, who plans to execute a more conservative strategy at TPC Sawgrass than at other venues, where it’s bombs away. Another top-10 finish to go with the T8, T6, and T8 in his last three starts at the Players seems more likely than the three consecutive missed cuts he recorded in his first three TPC outings. There’s also reason to believe, given his 2016 winless record to date, that the former world No. 1 will continue his spate of head-scratching lackluster play that takes him out of contention (see final-rounds of 75 and 74 at Riviera and Doral, respectively; dual 75s at Bay Hill; a third-round 77 at the Masters; and a pair of 73s at Quail Hollow).

Day should hold on to his top world ranking, which Spieth could regain with a stellar performance this week. But No. 1 has cooled off since rolling into the Masters on the strength of two straight wins at Bay Hill and in WGC Match Play. A disappointing T10 at Augusta preceded a meh showing at the RBC Heritage, and he survived a weather-shortened 54-hole Zurich Classic by scoring three rounds in the 60s and finishing T5. It could go either way with Day, who very well may contend, but his three MCs at the Players, including last year, are difficult to ignore.

Brendan: This course forces these two to do things that don’t normally do every other week on Tour -- throttle down. Day said he’s going to hit a whole bunch of 2-irons this week and that he’s not, and never has been, very comfortable with a 3-wood. Of course, that 2-iron goes almost as far as many drivers but it’s still a change for Day, who dominates courses and his colleagues with that advantage off the tee. Rory seems to have figured out how to approach this course that he does not love. After making a mess at Sawgrass early in his career, and skipping the event altogether one year, Rory has posted three straight top 10s at this Pete Dye course. He’ll be a part of the Sunday afternoon chase.

Brendan: I used to make one snide joke after another about The Players and its self-importance. It never registered with me much more than a WGC or regular weekly event. Maybe that was my own personal shortcoming because I’ve bought in over the last few years, even before Rickie rescued the 2015 edition from what had been a sleepy weekend into the best event of the year. Because of the golf course, I think we’ll see random and unknown winners pop up here but that happens at the majors, too.

Whether it’s the rise of non-stop media coverage, or the switch in schedule to May, the event has a major-feel and identity now. I think filling that void between the Masters and U.S. Open has been a huge win. While the course will always have its critics, playing and winning here clearly means more than ever. It’s not a major but it is something more -- a huge resume-boost and something you can cite forever when promoting your all-time bona fides. It has carved out its own level separate and distinct from every other golf tournament, majors included, and that’s fine.

Emily: Rather than add another major, which would dilute the impact of the traditional four (and can you imagine five majors, the Olympics, and the Ryder Cup in the same year? For the love of all that is sacred in the game of golf, NO!), why not switch out the PGA Championship for The Players? The PGA always seems like an afterthought anyway, so let’s have the boys contend for the final major title of the season at the same course where the difference between winning and losing may come down to the viewer-friendly drama at the ball-sucking island green.

Kyle: Unless it occurs organically over a long period of time, we don’t. The Open Championship will play its 145th edition this year. We’re on U.S. Open 116. The PGA Championship will play the 100th iteration of the event in 2018. Danny Willett just won the 80th Masters. The Players is still a relatively young golf tournament. This year will just account for the 42nd Players -- and it’s only been at TPC Sawgrass since 1982. It’s a great tournament, on a golf course built for drama, that’s produced a big-name champion seemingly every year since 2002 when Craig Perks won the event. It’s on a level of its own right now among Tour events. But artificially tagging it with the “major championship” moniker wouldn’t do the others justice ... yet.

Trevor: Don’t know that you can call anyone a dark horse here because the field is the best of the year, but Chris Kirk at 80/1 is really intriguing. He’s logged a couple top fives this year and was in the final group last year at Sawgrass.

Kyle: Here’s one that’s probably totally off the map for casual fans: Jamie Lovemark at 100/1. If you only tune in for the big events, you might not know the name, but there’s no question the former USC star has always had the game to win on Tour. He’s a former World Amateur No. 1, but dealt with back problems early in his pro career. Now that those seem to be out of the way, he’s turned in more top-10s in 2016 than missed cuts, and nearly won in the pig slop at TPC Louisiana two weeks ago. He might not win this week, but don’t be shocked if this is Lovemark’s coming out party. Could a Ryder Cup appearance follow?

Brendan: Kevin Na at 60/1 is tasty. He’s got three top 10s here, got a nice three-week break, and finished inside the top five last we saw him on Tour. It was at this event that Na’s mental struggles unloading the swing came into full public view. It was tough to watch and even Johnny Miller, soft-hearted NBC analyst, felt for him. But he’s come a long way since then and is one of the most consistent players on Tour. The track record here and 60/1 value make him a nice choice.

Emily: Of course, it’s an overhyped gimmicky track (it’s the PGA Tour’s flagship event, after all), but who doesn’t want to watch the tournament come down to whoever can stay dry at No. 17? There’s a reason Forbes dropped these stats on us: dating back to the 2003 Players, some one in every 10 shots have found the water at the par-3 17th and in 5,675 official rounds, contestants have dunked 598 balls into the pond. And then there’s this: Aaron Baddeley owns the record for most splashes (13) at the 17th since 2003, while Bob Tway posted the highest score (12) on 17 in the third round in 2005. What’s not to love about that?

Kyle: Courses like the Stadium are always going to be polarizing, and it’s often guided by your strengths as a player. I played the Stadium a handful of weeks ago. The tree-lined fairways, small greens, and quirks didn’t bother me -- if anything it should have set up well for a dude from Indiana that’s grown up on Pete Dye tracks. It’s a ballstriker’s course, not a long-hitter’s course. That said, I’m also not a dang Tour player for good reason. I get the critiques of some that there’s not enough opportunities to make birdies out there. If you can keep the ball out of trouble and not do anything stupid, you can grind out a ton of pars and hang around if nobody goes full Greg Norman and takes it way-deep under par. That’s probably why the Rory McIlroy’s of the world aren’t crazy about the venue.

Oh, and a parting take: 17’s not a hard hole. It’s a stock gap wedge. Don’t @ me.

(via Deadspin)

Brendan: I’ve written about this many times over the years but like The Players, I’ve come to accept Sawgrass for what it is and embrace it. I used to hate all the promotion and would laugh at the course hype. It has its gimmicks, no doubt, and it will never be considered some classic Americana track. But it’s one week a year, a different test, and has elements that make for a fun TV event that the traditionalists and cynics (I used to be one) can hate on forever.

Trevor: It is gimmicky at times, but that’s fine with me. It creates some drama. It has some great risk/reward options which make the final holes compelling. Watching Rickie fire at the flag on 17 over and over again last year was awesome from a fan perspective.

Emily: Mentally unfettered by a potential matchup with the absent Tiger Woods and overlooked as the so-called “Big 3-4” grab everyone’s attention, Sergio Garcia can fly under the radar and hone in on his second Players title. He has a top 10 in each of the last three years, including that runner-up finish after being on the losing end of Rickie Fowler’s playoff win last year. He feasts on TPC Sawgrass like no other venue. Also, eight of the past 13 winners have been among the top five in greens-in-regulation at the event and Sergio’s currently No. 4 on Tour in that category. So, yeah, Sergio. Why not?

Kyle: I’ll take Sergio, too, because he should’ve gotten his second one of these things last year. I’m not sure there’s a course that sets up better for his skill set anywhere on Tour, and I’ll ride with El Nino this week -- since it’s not technically a major. Yet.

Brendan: HIDEKIIIIIIIIIIIIIII. I picked Matsuyama to win last week in Charlotte and he made a weekend move to get inside the top 15 after an ugly start to the week. I’ll ride this horse again. He’s a tee-to-green ace, never misses a cut, and almost always finds his way inside the top 25. That ball-striking is such an advantage at Sawgrass. Matsuyama continues his ascent and the public gets to know another 20-something talent a little more.

Trevor: Rory. He’s going to break through on this course at some point, he’s just too talented. Why not do it this week and let the rest of the big 3, or 4, or 5 know he’s going to be a force this summer.