U.S. Open 2016 picks and predictions: Can Jordan Spieth go back-to-back at Oakmont?

The 116th U.S. Open returns to its unofficial home. After a rocky, to put it mildly, edition last year in the Pacific Northwest, this year’s national championship goes back to a classic setup at Oakmont. And much like the Masters two months ago, almost every top player in the world is playing well with demonstrated success coming into the the season’s second major. They’ll still face what many are calling the hardest golf course they will ever play though, and a favorite’s chances can be wiped out in just a matter of minutes. With all that unpredictability, we still bravely put forth some picks and predictions for the week at Oakmont.

Emily: Why not Matthew Fitzpatrick? The 2013 U.S. Amateur champion enters the week after a win on the European Tour a week and a half ago and a T-7 at the Masters in his first major since he turned pro. He also captured low-amateur honors in the tournament in 2014.

Brendan: Does Brandt Snedeker count as a darkhorse? He’s 60-1 and while he’s been uneven this year, he does have a win, a strong track record at the U.S. Open (four top 10s in his last seven starts), and the putter to keep it under control as much as one can at Oakmont.

Trevor: I honestly think the winner is going to come from someone in the top 10 in the world. Bobby Jones, Snead, Hogan, Nicklaus. Those are some of the guys that have won here at Oakmont. It’s a course where the best of the best rise to the occasion. If you twist my arm, I will say Justin Thomas at 80-1. I think I’ve picked him as a darkhorse a few times now. Eventually, he is going to break through. Maybe even in the same way his good buddy Jordan Spieth did by winning a major championship.

Mark: I think Marc Leishman at 80-1 is a very interesting pick. The two biggest keys to contending at Oakmont are positioning off the tee and work on the putting surface. Leishman is in the top 20 in both total driving and total putting this season. He’s accurate off the tee, but still has enough distance to give him some shorter irons into the greens. He’s also contended in big events and is familiar playing on the major championship stage.

Kyle: U.S. Opens put a premium on mental toughness and course familiarity, so I’m more inclined to tap someone who’s gone through the rigors of a U.S. Open test successfully before rather than a promising young star at a venue like Oakmont. At 100-1, Webb Simpson’s really intriguing. The 2012 Champion at Olympic Club wasn’t in the field the last time the event came to Oakmont in 2007, but he’s never missed a cut in the Open. He’s coming off a pair of nice finishes at Colonial and at the Memorial heading into this week, and while his upside to win the tournament might not be as high as others, there’s a strong chance he’ll be within striking distance on Sunday morning if things go predictably haywire.

Kyle: Considering Oakmont’s demands, the initial impulse here is to assume Bubba Watson will shoot somewhere around +1,000 over two days and end up wrasslin’ Ted Scott off the 17th green by Friday evening. But no! Don’t forget that Oakmont was where Watson first burst onto the scene with a T-5 finish in 2007. He’s probably got warm feelings toward this place.

I’ve got some concerns about Rickie Fowler’s current form. You can argue he’s missed the cut in each of the year’s biggest three tournaments to date (Masters, Players, Memorial) and hasn’t made one since Quail Hollow. Oakmont isn’t the type of place you’re going to be able to grind out good scores without having your best stuff. He’s put in a lot of preparation on the golf course in recent weeks, but bad golf shots are bad golf shots and there’s not much preparation can do about them here. There’s a much better chance for more terrible think-piece fodder about his spring break trips and Snapchats than getting the major monkey off his back this week.

Mark: If the career grand slam is going to happen for Phil Mickelson, it won’t be this year. He should make up some ground in and around the greens, but his work off the tee has been less than stellar this season. I can’t see him successfully scrambling from the rough successfully for four days.

Emily: Rickie Fowler — He started the season on fire but has just one top-10 finish in his last seven starts, and two straight missed cuts (at The Players Championship and the Memorial) entering the week. The reason, his swing coach Butch Harmon believes, is the flat stick — and stats, which show him dropping from 36th on tour last year to 47th in strokes gained putting so far in 2016 bear him out. He’s mapping a precise strategy around Oakmont, but he’ll need that putter working on the treacherous greens. And while he finished T-2 in the national championship in 2014 and T-10 in 2013, his record in U.S. Opens (MC 2013, 2011; T-41, 2012; T-60, 2008) does not inspire much confidence that he’ll conquer Oakmont.

Brendan: Phil and Rickie seem to be the popular choices here. Mickelson, I think, respects the course but is not a fan, telling Jason Sobel that, of his three categories for courses -- Hard, Great, Fun -- this one is neither great nor fun. He also ducked out in the middle of the practice rounds to fly back to California for his daughter’s graduation, which is perfectly fine, commendable and a thing he’s done in the past. But it just doesn’t seem like Phil is targeting this Oakmont venue as a U.S. Open where he can contend (hope I’m wrong!).

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Emily: The best golfers in the world grinding their way around a brutal layout, chopping out of rough that eats golf balls, and putting and praying — what’s not to enjoy?

Mark: I enjoy the U.S. Open the most when the setup is tough, but fair. Should the players be challenged? Yes. Should good shots be rewarded? Yes. As long as that is the case, I think it’s great and would consider the U.S. Open my second-favorite major only behind the Masters. Now, if it teeters too far in the difficult direction and players are unable to make scores, even when they are hitting good shots, then I don’t think that’s an enjoyable experience for anyone. Challenge the field to the max and let the cream of the week rise to the top. Just don’t make it impossible for the sake of making it impossible.

Brendan: It’s good for one week. I tend to prefer the other three majors but I’m fine with this being the style of play one week of the year. I would rather have a setup that allows a player to make a Sunday charge up the leaderboard as opposed to the war of attrition that relies on blow-up holes for leaderboard movement. But again, I do love the drama of the players screaming about setup and conditions and the USGA pushing the line as much as they can. It’s fun for one week and I can appreciate the U.S. Open carving out its identity as such.

Trevor: I would say it is a tie with the Open Championship as my second favorite major. For the most part, The Open is the better tournament, but come on, I can’t have my own national championship be third on my list! I am not a huge fan of this style of golf. Birdies are fun! I have enough cringe-worthy moments in my own golf game so I enjoy pros going low. We won’t see that this week. I also like when the players are the story and not the golf course. As we have seen so far this week, Oakmont’s course conditions have been the main storyline.

Kyle: The U.S. Open is golf’s greatest event. It’s golf’s toughest test, it’s truly an “open” field and it might be my single favorite sporting event of the year. For someone that deeply cares about access to the game and breaking down golf’s very stupid financial barriers to entry, playing the tournament often on courses you can play matters. But as I wrote about here, it can go overboard. There’s a very thin line between stiff test and unfair garbage that doesn’t provide the best player that week as the champion. And high scores aren’t always indicative of how fair a golf course might be. Oakmont in 2007 was fine. The winner shot +5. Shinnecock in 2004 wasn’t -- and the winning score was -4. This is the one golf tournament nearly always certain to keep the best players in the world from getting double-digits under par, and it’s a welcome change from the rest of the schedule when it doesn’t go overboard.

Emily: Around 5-over, which is the score Angel Cabrera carded when he won at this venue in 2007. Even-par will be a distant memory come Sunday night at Oakmont, where the rough is unforgiving and balls traveling at breakneck pace on unforgiving greens will have players praying for birdies and thankful for bogeys.

Trevor: Last time the U.S. Open was here, Angel Cabrera won at +5. With the way the course looks early this week, I think we could see something like that again. If the course gets a little rain, players could go lower, but this course is still really hard. I’ll say the winner is at +1, just where the USGA likes it.

Kyle: +7, +8, +9? That sounds insane, but if these winds kick up as they did last Sunday, that’s a number we could approach. We’re expecting some rains over the first two rounds, which would make most pro courses play easier. But trying to play from this rough in wet conditions? Please. Even if they don’t, I’d be shocked if we see anything in the even, +1, +2 range take the trophy. Expect the winning score to be around Angel Cabrera’s +5 in 2007. The field is better than it was at that time, but I’d argue conditions are tougher this time around. Winds and weather will have a huge effect on that.

Emily: It’s wait’ll next year — again — for Lefty. Mickelson may well be running a game on his opponents by calling the course “the hardest golf course we’ve ever played,” but if he truly believes that, it will be a challenge for him to finish in the top 10.

Trevor: He leads the Tour in scoring average and his T-2 last week in Memphis is encouraging, but I just don’t see it happening. He’s got the length, but his accuracy off the tee is concerning with this rough.

Kyle: He’ll be in the mix, but he won’t get it done. U.S. Opens are predicated on taking your medicine from bad spots, Oakmont more than most. It’s not a place for Who’s Making You Do This stuff. Not this year.

Mark: McIlroy certainly has the game to win on this course. He might even be my favorite if I could believe he’ll put 72 holes together. His problem recently has been the blip round. Where he gets out of sorts and things spiral, ultimately leading to a bad round. With how difficult Oakmont can be, a bad round could be even worse and completely end a player’s chance to compete. I think McIlroy finishes in solid position -- top 20 -- but his chances of winning are washed away by a bad third round.

Brendan: Rory will have a hot streak and get the crowd whipped up as he almost always does, but I don’t expect him to be there late on Sunday. He’s the best driver in the world but this setup might mitigate that advantage. His putter and wedge game from 125 yards are question marks at the start of every round and while he’s my favorite golfer to watch on the planet, this may not be the place where his strengths can carry him for 72 holes.

Kyle: I walked alongside Rory for his front nine a couple weeks back at the Memorial and it’s hard to imagine that his ball striking is any issue at the moment, despite his claims after the round that he wasn’t hitting it close enough to win. Despite my own reservations about his putter at the moment, I think it’s his play from the tee that will be his undoing this week. He’s No. 1 on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, but that advantage will turn into a negative if he’s missing fairways with the big stick with Oakmont’s penal rough. Given his length, McIlroy can afford to take irons off the tee in spots others can’t -- and that game plan should keep him in contention. But the big dog will come out to play at some point, and it’s just hard to imagine that might not burn him in a critical moment. Another backdoor top 10 might be in order.

Emily: If he sticks to his strategy of playing conservatively, McIlroy will be in the mix down the stretch. The world No. 3 conceded that he won his four majors with eye-popping, under-par scores on soft courses that best suit his game. That is not Oakmont. So the plan is to use fewer drivers and more 2-irons off the tees, leave the pin hunting to others, stay patient, grind his way around the track and “rein it back in a little bit,” as he said on Tuesday — not Rory’s strengths to this point.

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Emily: It’s not so much a question of whether there’s scar tissue from his back-nine collapse at Augusta. Nor is it an issue of motivation to prove the naysayers wrong, or of pressure to repeat as U.S. Open champ. It’s his track record on traditional Open tracks that feature deep, gnarly roughs that could have Spieth scrambling to make the cut, which he missed at Merion in 2013. As Golf Channel’s Rex Hoggard noted, Spieth has also struggled in non-Open events on courses that have hosted the national championship: MC in three starts at Congressional, which has staged two U.S. Opens, and two MCs in three starts at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines, home of Tiger Woods’ famous 2008 U.S. Open win. Also, that sand; there’s too much of it in Oakmont’s fluffed-up bunkers, Spieth complained, and as Jason Day observed, “If you have a bad attitude, you may as well not even tee it up.”

Kyle: There are two ways to go with Jordan this week: (1) He’s fought his golf swing all year, and a test of the U.S. Open will expose those or (2) he’s the best grinder in the game and this is a grinder’s golf course. If you need a guy to dig out pars for you in difficult conditions, there’s no one you could have better than Jordan Spieth. I got burned on this at the Masters in not loving where he is with his golf swing at the moment, but I’m gonna stick with it here. He’s a gamer, but if he couldn’t come close to keeping up in fairly simple conditions at the Memorial -- what makes one think he can really turn it on at the world’s toughest major championship course?

Brendan: He’s the No. 1 player in the world so this is not exactly going out on a limb, but I expect Day to be inside the top five battling for his first U.S. Open on Sunday. He can hit it just as far as anyone out here and is first on Tour this year in the most important putting stat in the game. It sounds like his approach this week will be similar to The Players, where he throttled down off driver a bunch and still cruised to a multi-shot victory.

Trevor: I am going to call my shot here. Jason Day will tie Rory McIlroy and play an 18-hole playoff on Monday.

Kyle: Concerns about J-Day are the same as Rory, but his success at the Players makes one think he’s learned to manage a golf course off the tee. How can one bet against Day right now, really? Expect him to be inside the top five heading into Sunday.

Brendan: I think the big names will all rise to the top here -- Spieth, Day, DJ, Rory -- in what should be a fantastic weekend at Oakmont. But I am going a little farther off the grid for my winner and picking Branden Grace. The wider audience probably only knows him from that shot he launched off the course and onto the train tracks late in the final round last year at Chambers Bay. But he’s got a steady putter that can hang at Oakmont, been in the hunt at multiple majors over the past couple years and is in form with a strong season thus far. The need to categorize everything into “Big Threes” or fours neglects all the other immense talents, and Grace is another one of those 20-somethings who is right there with the more popular names. I think his profile gets a big boost this week.

Mark: Jordan Spieth battled his game all week at the Masters and still nearly won. Oakmont requires precision, accuracy, skill on the greens and a sound game plan. The last two areas are strengths of Spieth. The course is going to beat a lot of players down. They are going to make more bogeys than usual and are going to struggle. Keeping together and sticking to the plan and focusing on the next shot is pivotal. Spieth tends to do that better than anyone, and I think the rest of his game is obviously good enough to capture his third major championship.

Emily: Jason Day -- He’s the strongest mentally entering the week and his physical game is pretty good, too. He struggled at the Memorial on a course that has given him fits over the years, but the reigning PGA champ has won three of his last seven starts, including The Players Championship, and boasts some pretty decent stats in this tournament. Since 2011, the world No. 1 is No. 1 in birdies and eagles, rounds in the 60s, and tied for first in scoring average, according to Golf Channel’s Justin Ray. He’s also fighting the back end of a cold, so you know, that “sick golfer” thing.

Trevor: I am going to keep picking Rory in these until he wins one. I am bound to be right eventually. When he’s on, he’s the most talented player in the world. He can drive it long and straight. If he has figured out his putting, he’ll take home his second U.S. Open title.

Kyle: I don’t know, Emiliano Grillo? It’s hard for me to latch on to one of the big names here -- long hitters that tend to spray it a bit, the grinder who hasn’t been in form this year, etc. Oakmont’s a fairly old-school course when it comes to the metrics needed to predict success here: hitting fairways and hitting greens. Someone a bit off the map seems right here this week. Grillo’s seventh on tour in driving accuracy, ranks in the top 30 in GIR, the last dude who won here was Argentinian, and I was impressed with his play before stumbling a bit late at Muirfield Village. I’m drawn to Sergio Garcia’s recent form and ability to hit greens and make enough putts to make pars, but I can’t in good conscience pick him with his struggles at times off the tee and the likelihood he’ll be one of the first to complain about the course. Give me Grillo, because I don’t like taking front-runners and nothing else makes sense.