The one hole at Oakmont that could decide the U.S. Open

OAKMONT, Pa. – If the U.S. Open is coming down to the wire on Sunday, Oakmont Country Club’s 17th hole could make all the difference.

When the tournament’s final groups head toward the finish line, No. 17 might be the best chance for someone to either win or lose the tournament.

“Seventeen has been a pivotal hole on a number of occasions,” said Gerry Hickel, the club archivist who’s been a member here since 1978. Oakmont is hosting its record ninth U.S. Open, and there’s history to suggest screwing up the 17th is a turning point.

Tom Watson bogeyed it in 1983, and then he lost by a single stroke to Larry Nelson. Jim Furyk bogeyed it in 2007, and then he lost by a single stroke to Ángel Cabrera.

Either man could have forced an 18-hole playoff without a bogey on what some (including this year’s course statistics) regard as Oakmont’s single easiest hole.

Oakmont presents a lot of decision points, as does any good U.S. Open track. But the 17th hole there is deeply tempting, because it’s just a 313-yard par-4 and almost everybody in the field is capable of driving straight to its green.

But that green has multiple levels and slopes hard toward the front, including toward a bunker right and in front of the green that members call “Big Mouth.” There’s also thick rough to the green’s left. Several players have hit driver this week and landed in a gallery massing in that direction, making birdies tricky.

Even players who hit brilliant-looking fairway approach shots need to risk spinning the ball backward into Big Mouth, as Jordan Spieth did on Thursday. Others, like Zach Johnson, have hit their iron shots from the tee into the hole’s left rough, then chunked second shots that got nowhere close.

There’s difficulty all over, really. Despite the hole’s short distance, driving into the rough on either the left or right side of the fairway has snuffed out almost all statistical chance at making birdie this week.

But 32 percent of the players who have laid up and hit the fairway in the first two rounds did make birdie. That’s only a slightly small tick below the 37 percent who made birdie after successfully driving the green. Yet laying up probably means dropping an approach shot over what might be the course’s scariest bunker, Big Mouth.

It can be a hard choice, especially in the final minutes of a major championship.

The 17th has been Oakmont’s most birdied hole in this tournament and the one that’s averaged the score farthest below par. It’s going to be the second-to-last hole of the tournament for every competitor, and it could make or break anyone’s chances.

“It’s a hard hole, but you can take advantage of it if you know how to play it,” Hickel said. “But it’s been a very pivotal hole, and it could very well do that again this year, depending on who’s playing and where they are.”