Olympic golf 2016 picks and predictions: Rickie Fowler, Bubba Watson lead Team USA in Rio

After more than 100 years, golf is back in the Olympics. The men’s event will run from Thursday through Sunday as a normal 72-hole, stroke-play tournament, and then the women will tee it off the following Wednesday through Saturday. Olympic golf means different things to the men and women, but we don’t really know what to expect from each 60-person field on a course that no one has any experience with, until this week. Yet we fearlessly trudge on with medal predictions and what these next two weeks could mean, if anything, for the game.

Kyle: There are more storylines here than you’d think -- but the most compelling center around Sergio Garcia and Rickie Fowler. The two players that might come up first right now in the Best Player Never to Win a Major discussion could throw a wrench into how we think about them as players. Sure, they’ll have detractors that try to dampen what a win here would mean, but you can’t tell me a Rickie-Sergio duel down the back nine on Sunday wouldn’t make for fantastic TV.

Emily: On the women’s side, I’d enjoy seeing Lydia Ko build on her growing legend by adding a gold medal to her two majors and 13 LPGA Tour wins. For the men, it would be sweet if Rickie Olympics fervor were to be rewarded with the gold. Also, Bubba in Rio.

Brendan: Bubba, who couldn’t remember in the name of the Eiffel Tower or Louvre during that memorable Paris rant, in Rio might be the most entertaining part of the week. Ko is the best golfer in the world, of any gender, but she’s had a few bumps in her past couple majors. You can’t win everything, but adding a gold medal should boost the criminal under appreciation of the LPGA superstar.

On the men’s side, I’ve just enjoyed and am looking forward to some of these world stars we see each week on the Tour embrace a different event and environment. Of course they whiffed on the format in a big way. I’m not sold on the event being some incredibly entertaining golf tournament, but I have been fascinated and excited watching Rickie, Sergio, Justin Rose and others operate at the Olympics. Even for a cynic, this is cool.

Trevor: First, I am just looking forward to getting this thing going. All the controversy leading up to the event won’t go away or be forgotten, but I am excited to actually play golf.
Second, I am looking forward to seeing what this event means to the players that are there. What level of interest do they have? Are they engaged and grinding over putts or are they just on a Brazilian golf vacation? Based on what I have seen so far it looks like it might be the former, which is encouraging for this event moving forward.

Kyle: Uh, no, not really. The four best players in the world won’t be here. Two of the world’s best players (Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott) basically mocked the event. The 11th-best player in the field is Thongchai Jaidee. I mean, sure, it’ll be successful in some measures. They will probably complete 72 holes. It’s unlikely any playing competitor will be eaten by a rogue capybara. But men’s golf was just the easiest place for all of Rio’s mess of problems to manifest. They’re possibly less beholden to the IOC than any other group (yes, even possibly USA Basketball players) so these problems might be more about the locale than the event. But, still, the format (60 players, stroke play, no cut, ranging from fifth to 405th in the world) is almost certain to produce boring, non-competitive golf.

Trevor: I think it’s tough to call it a success now, but that might change as the week goes on. It hurts that a lot of top players didn’t show. The concerns about disease and safety have hurt the Olympics overall, however, not just golf.
But on the other hand, the course looks great. All the top ladies showed up. This event has the potential to be highly competitive and entertaining. Maybe when someone like Patrick Reed is getting a gold medal hung on his neck, it will convince other players that they made a mistake by not showing up.

Emily: We’ll have to wait and see. Leading up to the actual event, it’s been all about the top guys opting out, with less attention paid to Ko and the women (but for one lesser-known player), who are all in on Rio and infected by Fowler’s Olympics fever. The format has come under fire for its unimaginative, 72-hole stroke-play scheme, though potential playoffs for the silver and bronze medals could inject some interest and confusion into the proceedings, not to mention the possibility of two Americans (say, Bubba and his would-be protégé, Patrick Reed) going all red, white and blue on each other for the gold.

I’m also not sure how one judges the success or failure of the endeavor — TV ratings, spectator-lined fairways (organizers are reportedly giving tickets away so NBC doesn’t show the Olympians playing in front of crickets and capybaras), exciting matches, controversy? It will certainly take time to determine whether Olympics golf actually helps “grow the game” among those who can’t afford the $200 greens fees Gil Hanse’s Olympic Golf Course will reportedly charge once the summer games are over. It’s also possible that the absences of Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, et al, will diminish the chances of the men’s game continuing in the Olympics going forward, while the best women golfers gain the global exposure that’s a given on the PGA Tour. So, long answer to short question — who knows?

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Brendan: This week was not going to change the fact that the format sucks and the top men’s players bailed on the event that many people who care about the game worked very hard to push and promote. So, no, it hasn’t been a success. I don’t know if it was the weeks and months of bad publicity leading into the event that set the bar so low, but I have been pleasantly surprised with how the week has gone so far. As I noted above, it’s really cool just to see these players in the village and the women gunning for what could be a career-defining win. The four-day tournament may flop, but so far I’ve been happy with how the experience has gone since the Opening Ceremony. It’s blunted some of the bad publicity and negativity around the entire concept of golf in the games.

Emily: Sure, but not likely. If it were to happen, how about Graham DeLaet rebounding from the same type of back surgery that has grounded Tiger Woods and taking the gold, silver, or bronze back to Canada, eh?

Kyle: Here’s a longshot for no particular reason -- Ireland’s Seamus Power. He’s won this year on the Web.com Tour. He’s also missed three cuts in the last four weeks. I was going to say Denmark’s Thorbjorn Olesen, but then realized he’s probably one of the more famous players in the event. This field sucks and is bad and the IOC should feel bad.

Brendan: He’s not a name that most U.S. golf fans know and hasn’t played on the stateside PGA Tour, but Haotong Li is a young Chinese player who has had a breakout season on the European Tour. He’s struggled a little of late but he has the talent to medal.

Emily: It depends what you mean by “golf” — for the PGA and/or LPGA Tour, or for the “grow the game” advocates (see my comments above)? The LPGA has come a long way during commissioner Mike Whan’s tenure, with greatly increased schedules and purses, but the women still lack the international exposure, recognition and respect the men take for granted every week. So while I believe the Olympics will have little impact on the men’s game, it could be monumental for raising the global profile of women’s golf. At least that’s the hope.

Kyle: It’s not important. A favorite pastime of golf media voices and fans alike is turning nearly every week into a referendum on the state of the game. IS THIS GOOD FOR GOLF? WILL IT GROW THE GAME? It’s tiring and annoying -- and it wouldn’t matter if the top four players in the world were here or not.

Hear me out: Putting golf in the Olympics was never, ever, ever meaningfully going to Grow The Game. No one in Tanzania is picking up clubs because Scott Hend ekes out 4-shot win over Mikko Ilonen on Sunday. The Olympic Golf Course won’t end up being this public-course paradise it’s alleged to be -- because those it was supposed to help won’t be able to afford it. Rio can’t pay police officers and hospitals, and most of its citizens live under the constant threat of violence. They’re not going to be hitting the links anytime soon.

Trevor: A lot of people always talk about the idea of growing the game. This event has the potential to do that to some extent. Maybe not in the United States, where people are familiar with the game, but there a lot of players that can become better known in their home countries and thus raise the interest level in golf.

Kyle: Patrick Reed, USA. Don’t think he’s playing all that well but the mild insanity should help.

Emily: Bubba Watson. The Americans, not exactly the Dream Team but with the most Olympians (four) of any nation, can’t come away empty-handed, can they? Plus, as the two-time Masters champ put it so eloquently on Tuesday, referring to himself in the third person, “This is all about Bubba Watson and trying to win a medal for America.”

Anna Nordqvist. But for that one grain of sand, the six-foot Swede might be entering the Olympics as a two-time major champion. The winner of six LPGA Tour events definitely has game.

Brendan: I like recent Women’s Open champion Ariya Jutanugarn to get Thailand a medal in the women’s event. She’s in form and can play through these expected winds without needing a driver to get around this unfamiliar course. On the men’s side, I think the USA’s Matt Kuchar is your bronze medalist because it just seems too appropriate not to put him here.

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Brendan: In a condensed and thin field, it’s hard to not see Henrik Stenson make the medal stand. He’s the favorite, has been on a tear this summer, and should finish inside the top three. For the women, I am picking Lexi Thompson to show out in Rio and be the one USA rep on the medal stand. Also, I’m a homer.

Kyle: Emiliano Grillo, Argentina. Like you, American Airlines lost Grillo’s bag earlier this week. Not like you, he has lots of money and people to get it back for him.

Emily: Phil Mickelson. Oh, wait, Mr. Majors Runner-Up’s not here. Sergio Garcia then, because it would be so Sergio to win a medal at the Olympics and go oh-fer the majors.

Ariya Jutanugarn. The 20-year-old reigning British Women’s Open champ from Thailand has matched Ko, who’s playing for New Zealand, with four LPGA Tour wins in 2016 (including her first major at Woburn) and has the game to upset the world No. 1.

Emily: Henrik Stenson. Looks like withdrawing from the U.S. Open with those “minor neck and knee issues” was a good move for the 40-year-old from Sweden. He’s only gone 28-under par since then at the final two majors of the men’s season, coming away with the Claret Jug and ending his stint in purgatory as one of those “best golfers never to win a major.”

Lydia Ko. Because Lydia Ko.

Kyle: Sergio Garcia, Spain. Call the police if you want, but the Summer of Sergio is still here.

Brendan: Brooke Henderson will continue her summer as Canada’s top athlete and come home a national hero and gold medalist. For the men? I’ll get on the Sergio bandwagon because he’s been sharp all summer and, like Kuchar, this seems like the appropriate event of the major-less Spaniard to pick up a career highlight that’s still, well, not a major.