The Players Championship has carved out a unique identity as the premier championship on the PGA Tour. It’s on one of the more famous courses in the world, and this is the week we make our annual visit to TPC Sawgrass. Dustin Johnson is back following his mishap on the steps in Augusta. Rory McIlroy is back after getting married. Sergio Garcia is back after taking a month away with his new jacket.
The Players Championship 2017: Predictions and picks for TPC Sawgrass
The Players Championship boasts the strongest field in golf on one of the most exciting courses in the world. Here are some picks and predictions for the week at Sawgrass.
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
The best in the world all show up for this championship, which boasts one of the richest purses in the game and its strongest field. SB Nation golf staffers Brendan Porath and Kyle Robbins hit some of the discussion points and make some predictions for this week at The Players.
Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, the Nos. 1 and 2 players in the world, are paired together for the first two days. Who has the better week?
Kyle Robbins: There’s no real point in debating it at this current moment: Dustin Johnson is the best player in golf right now, back injury or not. But if you’re thinking back, this time just last year we watched the no-doubt, best-player-in-the-world dominate Sawgrass — that was Jason Day. Golf is hard; maybe we should stop rushing these proclamations.
At nearly any other course, DJ and Rory might be your favorites. They likely will be at Erin Hills in one month. But this is Sawgrass — where the premium is on shotmaking, not bludgeoning the course with distance. It’s a test as mental as it is physical. Day overcame career struggles here to win by changing his approach tactically, often leaving the driver in his bag. Even with his dominance, I’m not sure I trust DJ to pull back the reins enough to win here. I think both stay in the Top 15 to 20, but I’ll guess Rory has a better shot to contend here.
Brendan Porath: With the Tiger era over, we all too often have what is, to me, this rather tedious debate about which player is “best at his best.” Some argue for Jordan Spieth. Some for Jason Day. Others for Dustin Johnson. And many for Rory McIlroy, who has as many major championships as those three combined.
It’s an unanswerable question that takes up a lot of media air time. We’ll never get a week where all the top players in the world are playing at their best. What is true, however, is that DJ has been the best player in the world — at his best, his close-to-best, his mediocre, his whatever — for almost a full year now. He became No. 1 in the world just this February, but no one has been doing it better on a weekly basis since his U.S. Open win last June. I expect him to be back again challenging for another win this week.
DJ came off that injury layoff from his Masters tumble down the stairs and immediately contended at the Wells Fargo last week. It was like nothing happened. Rory, meanwhile, got married, turned 28 years old, and signed a new equipment mega deal during his layoff since the Masters.
This is supposed to be a course where driving distance is mitigated — one of the few remaining on the PGA Tour and in professional golf. That’s a DJ and Rory strength, but I’d still be surprised if both are not in the hunt on Sunday afternoon. Rory seems ready for another top 10 (which doesn’t necessarily mean he’s in contention), with DJ pushing for his fourth win in five starts. It’s hard to pick anyone, even Rory, to finish ahead of DJ these days.
Is The Players the “5th major?” Does that even mean anything? Do we care anymore about this?
Brendan: Ahhh, the annual discussion about a “fifth major.” I do not care about this. If you feel like it is — fine. If you scoff at the notion — cool, whatever. The debate has seemed to quiet in recent years, and the PGA Tour definitely doesn’t try to push that narrative, either overtly or behind-the-scenes.
It does not matter whether The Players Championship is a major or not even close. What it is is a completely unique event that occupies its own space in the game. No one skips this event. It draws the strongest field of the season and is on an instantly recognizable course made-for-TV with rowdy crowds. It doesn’t have to have the traditions or test of golf like the majors. It is a huge golf event and party floating in its own space, which is perfectly fine separate and apart from the traditional four majors. The Tour and those covering the game have seemed to embrace that.
Kyle: Yeah, that’s about where I’m at. I do, personally, enjoy The Players. It’s very much different from the week-in, week-out tour experience, it provides the best field in the sport, and it’s held on a one-of-a-kind track. On the heels of the reformatted Zurich Classic & GolfSixes last week in London, this is really the home of weird golf.
In general, we in golf spend waaaaaaaay too much time forcing the conversation about where things stand in history. You can’t classify everything with binary logic. Is it a fifth major? Does it matter? I don’t know. Time will tell. The PGA still isn’t prestigious enough for some folks — and it’s gonna be played for the 98th time this year!
The Players is another point on the schedule to get super excited for some awesome golf. Just enjoy that for what it is. It’ll be much more enjoyable.
The island 17th hole is one of the most instantly recognizable holes in the world. It also gets a ton of hype. Are you a fan or jaded cynic?
Kyle: If we’re gonna be super honest, 17’s not a hard hole — the water and the optics provide more bark than bite. For a replacement-level college player, it’s a pretty stock gap wedge to a relatively large green. Swirling winds can be the lone defense, and even then, well — it’s a relatively short par-3. Tour stats reflect that.
That said! This is a 10/10 good hole for televised, tournament golf. It’s iconic, there’s a stadium-like feel to it for fans on the course, and the finishing stretch of 16-17-18 is classic Pete Dye and as good as any for drama in golf. Not every hole need be diabolical — it just needs ample risk/reward benefit. Trailing by a shot or two on Sunday and firing at that classic tucked front-right pin provides that. It’s cathartic.
Brendan: Along the same lines of the “fifth major” discussion, the 17th hole at TPC Sawgrass is an annual tradition I’ve come to terms with. It’s a fine hole, a big party, and makes for a good broadcast, whatever your opinion is of its architectural merits. I used to pan the hype around it, but maybe I’ve gone soft as I get older.
Who is your dark-horse pick to either win or contend (odds here)?
Brendan: The winners at this event since 2012 are really a who’s who from the top of the world rankings over the last five years. But it still carries a rep as an event with an extremely deep field that produces random winners. When it comes to gambling on golf, the value almost never lies with the top stars and favorites. I like Matt Fitzpatrick way down the board at 100/1 — he’s played here only once, missing the cut. But he’s a super ball-striker and tends to play well in tougher conditions. Patrick Cantlay at 80/1 is also a great sleeper pick.
Kyle: I’m gonna go with another young Englishman: How about Tommy Fleetwood at 80-1? The 26-year-old is having the best season of his career — second in the European Tour’s Race To Dubai rankings. He’s already had success in big events in North America this year, a runner-up at the WGC-Mexico and a top-10 at Arnie’s event. He’s an elite ball-striker and hits greens by the boatload. If he’s able to make enough putts, he’ll be in the conversation this weekend.
This is known as one of the harder events on the PGA Tour to handicap. What makes it so difficult and so unique?
Brendan: It’s Pete Dye golf with lots of trouble and a layout that doesn’t automatically reward the guys who can bomb it the farthest off the tee. Distance is still an advantage, as it is everywhere in the game in this era. But things can even out here and make it harder to predict. That can make for a fun tournament unless you end up with some titanic Sunday clash between, oh I dunno, Brian Stuard and Sean O’Hair.
Kyle: You’re totally right, but I think you can even take this a step further. Golf is hard, lots of guys can win on any given week, and this is the best field in golf. There’s not the deadweight of The Masters, the amateurs of the U.S. Open and Open Championship, and the club pros of the PGA. This is, top-to-bottom, guys who can truly win the event. That makes it harder to predict, especially combined with Dye’s tricked-up track.
Who’s your winner this week and why?
Brendan: I am going with the third wheel in that marquee group of the first two days, passing on Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy to pick Justin Thomas as my winner. JT has cooled off a bit since he lit the world on fire in the first couple of months of the season. But he has professed his love for this championship and has backed it up with results in his first two years at The Players, finishing inside the top 25 as a rookie and T3 last year.
He’s also shown each year that he can put a “round of the day” type number up at Sawgrass — that Saturday 65 in his 2015 debut rocketed him into contention for Sunday’s final round and was one of the major statements of his rookie season. He returns this year as a top-10 ranked player in the world, has all the game and distance off the tee to compete anywhere in the world, and playing a course he loves and has figured out early in his career. That’s my pick.
Kyle: I like the JT pick. Loving a course you’re playing can be half the battle. But I’ll go a little different route for a young guy and take, um, Jordan Spieth. Is it weird he still seems to sit a bit under the radar? I’ll admit, there’s no particular rhyme or reason on this one — Jon Rahm, JT, even Sergio or DJ. But for whatever reason, this just feels right. A track like Sawgrass should fit Spieth’s game a touch. Don’t be shocked if he’s taking home the crystal on Sunday.
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