U.S. Open 2017: Ranking the weekend contenders at Erin Hills

ERIN, Wis. — We’ll start the weekend at the U.S. Open with a crowded leaderboard at Erin Hills but with little in the way of major championship pedigrees at the top. Eight of the world’s top 12 players missed the cut in Wisconsin — including Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, and Jason Day.

What’s that leave us with? Still plenty in the way of compelling golf.

The leader for the majority of the golf tournament, Rickie Fowler, will play headliner for the weekend, starting Saturday just a shot behind a quartet of players at 7-under-par. And, my, how things change. And could it be Sergio Garcia playing the role of proven, confident veteran? (We’re going with SergioSlam; do note it’s stylized without a space or hyphen.)

Our leaders are set to take to the course around 1:30 local time. Let’s sort out the contenders and pretenders at Erin Hills ahead of Saturday’s action.

Listen, young Americans Champ and Schauffele are fun to watch. They are big hitters who have the talent to hang around professional golf for a long time — and get back to this stage regularly. But it’s a big ask for two major championship rookies to hang around through the weekend.

Unless you’re a fan of Jordan Spieth’s chances seven shots behind the leaders, Kaymer’s the only multiple-time major winner left in contention this week. He’ll start the weekend four shots behind, but it’s fair to wonder if his form will hold out. The former top-ranked player hasn’t had a top-three finish anywhere in the world since 2015.

If you did a quick survey of the media center and players’ locker room, no one would complain about Bill Haas picking up the major champion designation. A six-time winner and FedEx Cup champion who probably doesn’t quite get his due, Haas will start the weekend three off the lead. The downside? He’s 35 years old with exactly one major championship top-10 finish.

Always in the shadow of countrymen Adam Scott and Jason Day, Leishman won’t have that problem this weekend at Erin Hills. A forever trendy pick to contend, he had a near miss at the 2015 Open Championship and won at Arnie’s event earlier this year. If you’re looking for one of the pack at 4-under-par to emerge, Leishman may be the best bet.

I’ll admit: Ranking Brian Harman this low is straight-up disrespectful. He’ll share the lead, play in the final grouping on Saturday, and has been in good form of late. But! There are players perhaps better suited to Erin Hills than Harman, and his major championship contention experience is basically zero. That’s a lot to ask of a dude walking in the final grouping today.

It feels like a long time coming for the former USC star in Lovemark at a major championship. His big-hitting style suits well to Erin Hills — if he can drive it accurately, — and he’ll enjoy a comfortable Saturday pairing with fellow SoCal native and Walker Cup teammate Rickie Fowler. If he can survive treacherous traps like the 9th, don’t be shocked if he pops into the lead at some point early on Saturday.

Sure, he’s five behind and out of the spotlight a bit. But there are 36 holes of golf left, and that’s plenty of time. In a leaderboard that lacks some punch outside of Rickie Fowler up top, Erin Hills could use another punch of star power. JT’s exactly that, and this course suits him well. He’s your best bet to make a move up from the group at 2-under-par.

No one at 4-under-par or better on this leaderboard has won a major championship, so JB Holmes’ veteran experience and strength off the tee could propel him to a win here. He turned in finished in the top five in half of last year’s majors

Sure, sure — call it a double standard. I knocked fellow leader Brian Harman for his lack of major experience, yet this is only Tommy Fleetwood’s second major championship weekend ever. But he’s had high finishes in quality events in 2017 (a win in Abu Dhabi, second at the WGC-Mexico) and there’s perhaps no better iron player in the world right now than Fleetwood. He greens at around an 85% clip on the European Tour. At a ballstriker’s paradise like Erin Hills, that’s a good predictor of success.

Does Si Woo Kim have a pulse? Coming off a Players Championship win at 21-years-old, the South Korean phenom’s just two behind the lead at Erin Hills entering the weekend. He didn’t blink at Sawgrass on Sunday a month ago. Is he perhaps the safest bet to stay up near the top of the leaderboard of this relatively unproven bunch?

We could go higher here, but since he’s four behind, let’s start out conservative. But if you’d told me Sergio would win a major in 2017, Erin Hills might have been the first venue to which I would’ve pointed. He says he’s confident at the moment and admits to believing he’ll have an advantage if the golf course toughens this weekend.

We’re through the looking glass. Sergio’s the proven, confident shark now, coming for the rest of the field. Sergio. Sergio Garcia. God, this is so weird but I love it.

It’s really hard not to like Brooks Koepka at Erin Hills.

He’ll be the best professional driver (Hi, Cam Champ!) of the golf ball remaining in the field this weekend, and his strengths line up well with Erin Hills — especially if overnight rains make the course play a hair longer. And at just 27, he’s been a solid pick in majors since he first broke onto the PGA Tour back in 2014. In fact, since the 2014 U.S. Open, Koepka’s only finished outside the top 21 of a major twice.

Nice, solid finishes are worlds different from wins, but the ingredients seem ripe for a Koepka breakthrough this weekend.

Consider: Take an appearance of a triple-bogey off Paul Casey’s second round card — and the Englishman’s your three-shot leader heading into the weekend. He’ll still own a share of the lead and tee off last on Saturday, but the question for Casey is simple: Will this time be any different?

Casey’s weekend major championship struggles are well-documented. For a player who’s reached third in the OWGR and owns 17 worldwide wins, he’s never had much in the way of success on the weekends at majors — a third-place finish at the 2015 Open Championship his lone top-three finish.

Sergio got the burden off his back at The Masters in April. It’d be apropos for another cursed European star to get it done at Erin Hills.

For much of Thursday and Friday, all seemed to be aligning for Rickie. He played three full nines at the U.S. Open without a bogey, a task that’s difficult to fully appreciate. But through the early rounds, he’s looked the part of a major champion.

Yet, perhaps Rickie’s never had an issue with the early rounds, nor has he with the physical aspects of the game. In 2016 especially, Fowler struggled to finish golf tournaments. Sunday collapses at the Wells Fargo and the Barclays stick out in my mind, particularly.

Golf needs major champion Rickie Fowler. Rickie Fowler deserves major champion Rickie Fowler. In a post-Tiger world, there’s no one in golf with more potential star power. He’s got the ability to captivate more casual fans that Jason Days and Dustin Johnsons perhaps are unable to draw. He’s marketable, personable, friendly — and has broad interests outside the sport. If some agency sketched up the ideal player to carry the sport into the future, Rickie would be close to the final draft.

The question: Is he ready for all that? Is he ready for the mental crucible of a six-hour Sunday walk at a major championship? I think so. We’ll find out this weekend.

I watched golf in concert yesterday, perhaps the closest thing to perfection I’ve seen in a round in person. You can read me wax poetic about it here. When he’s on, I’m still not completely sure there’s anyone more fun to watch — or anyone better in the world than Hideki Matsuyama. But we won’t need to litigate that argument this weekend! The three players above the Japanese star in the world rankings are long gone.

Majors are most fun when we get one of two types of winners: either (1) current major champions or (2) first major wins for guys who are going to win more. Hideki’s capable of winning many, many more. From what I saw on Friday, I think he’s your favorite this weekend.