2017 British Open picks and predictions: Can Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy end run of first-time major winners?

The 146th Open Championship tees off Thursday morning, or late Wednesday night if you’re in the United States, from Royal Birkdale. This English course on the Irish Sea is a venue that’s relatively new to the Open rota, if you count 1954 as new on the timeline of the oldest major championship. This is the 10th edition at Birkdale and each Open here has produced a world-class winner. Seven of the nine champions here are in the Hall of Fame, one is sure to be when he’s eligible, and the ninth player, Ian Baker-Finch, was among the top two or three in the world when he won it.

So this is a venue that has consistently delivered top-notch champions. There have been no flukes or longshots or unknowns who have taken the Claret Jug in Southport. And still, this major just seems so ... wide open. Yes, that’s a trope that gets tossed around a lot, but it really applies this week. There is no real favorite. Dustin Johnson has 11-1 odds and technically the favorite, but he’s only played two rounds of major championship golf this year. And the world No. 1 or favorite at these majors usually slots in somewhere between 5-1 and 7-1. The realistic possibilities are vast this week but nevertheless, the SB Nation golf crew is here to valiantly charge on with predictions for the 146th Open.

Emily: Padraig Harrington. The two-time Open winner jokes that he believes he can win on weeks when he’s not even playing, so it’s hardly a shock that the 45-year-old from Ireland, who would be the second-oldest Open winner (Old Tom Morris triumphed at age 46 in 1867), envisions himself sipping from his third Claret Jug. In addition to beating Sergio Garcia in a playoff to win the championship in 2007, Paddy went back-to-back when he defeated Poulter by four shots at Birkdale in ‘08. He’s also fresh off a T4 finish at last week’s Scottish Open.

Brendan: I am going with Matt Kuchar at 80-1. He has to get a major one of these years, no? We’ve seen some of the more — what’s the word — weathered talents and veterans take the Claret Jug in recent years, from Phil and Stenson and Zach and Clarke. This is a championship that does not discriminate, bringing all styles and strategies into contention.

Kuchar played well last week at the Scottish Open and just seemed downright giddy in that very nerdy Kuchar way to be back across the pond playing links golf. His track record at the Open is uninspiring, but his form has been solid since mid-May. I don’t expect him to win, but 80-1 is pretty good value for Kuch to potentially shuffle his Skechers across the 18th green to receive his Claret Jug come Sunday,

Brendan: As a golf geek who has to know the many up-and-coming and lesser-known talents, I find it fantastic to watch. Brooks Koepka winning the national championship is an exciting moment for a super talent that’s worthy of such a title.

But I also think it’s time for one of the big guns to take a major and stop the streak of first-time winners. It would be better for the game and the wider interest in it and based on the kind of champion this venue has produced, it would keep up a historical trend if a future HOFer like Spieth or McIlroy took it this week. I’d prefer if they were heavy favorites coming into it rather than this wide open race we have at the start of this week. We need headliners at the top of the card controlling the game.

Emily: A major with a leading candidate (Tiger, we hardly knew ye), two (damn those injuries, Rory and DJ), or the mythological Big 3 (was it only a year ago when Rory, Jordan Spieth, and Jason Day were this generation’s answer to Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, and Gary Player?) makes for far more exciting viewing and is likely to attract more eyeballs than an Open so wide open that a bouillabaisse of guys like Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas, and Jon Rahm (to name just a few of the young guns) have as good a chance of winning this week as anyone.

Emily: No doubt, given that Brooks Koepka was the seventh straight first-timer to cadge a major title when he captured the U.S. Open by four strokes. Given the randomness of Koepka, Sergio Garcia (2017 Masters), Jimmy Walker (2016 PGA Championship), Henrik Stenson (2016 Open Championship), pre-injury Dustin Johnson (2016 U.S. Open), Danny Willett (2016 Masters), and Jason Day (2015 PGA) hoisting the last seven major trophies, the ’17 Claret Jug could go to anybody (well, probably not perennial major champion wannabe Lee Westwood), but how about Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, or Tommy Fleetwood? Could happen.

Brendan: As Emily notes, we are definitely on a run of first timers. But all those first-time wins didn’t exactly come from way down the world rankings or out of nowhere. Willett is maybe the biggest surprise on that list and when he won the Masters, he was among the top 15 or 20 players in the world and maybe the best Euro going at the time. So while we may get a first-timer, there aren’t many shockers anymore. It’s just so deep through the top 50 in the world that it’s hard to breakthrough.

Brendan: I think defending champion Henrik Stenson may be going home early. It’s not been a strong season for the Iceman and he’s admitted as much, saying last week he didn’t exactly love his chances at Birkdale. Stenson remains one of the most captivating talents in the game — he’s the one the other pros will tell you that makes them all stop on the range just to watch a peer fire lasers out into the sky. But his game has come and gone like this and it could be a short week for the defending champ.

I’d also add Jason Day here and Bubba Watson, although Bubba has been so bad this year that he might no qualifying as a “big name” in this space right now.

Emily: Rory McIlroy. There’s the stress fracture, an injury that has cost him competitive reps as he has started just 10 tournaments worldwide this year, and missing the cut at last week’s Scottish Open for his third MC in his last four events, and the pain that he has conceded he will have to play through for the rest of the season. An equipment switch, from Nike to Callaway for a minute to TaylorMade, has worked out about as well as his move from Titleist to Nike back in 2013, when he went winless for the year.

And then there are McIlroy’s problems on the greens, which has the four-time major winner constantly changing putters and putting grips, sometimes in mid-tourney, as he did last month at the Travelers. Add in the growing frustration with his game and the likelihood that he is trying too hard to reclaim his winning form, and — despite prevailing at the 2014 British Open and finishing tied for fifth last year — it would not be surprising if the totality of his woes result in an early exit for McIlroy from Royal Birkdale.

Brendan: I have tweeted and written about it at length so I don’t need to go into it much more here, but it’s No. 1 for me.

Emily: Before the incident with that flight of stairs that forced him to pull out of the Masters, it would have been foolish to bet against DJ at the Open. He had those three straight wins prior to Augusta, finished T2 after returning from injury at the Wells Fargo, and acquitted himself well at The Players (T12) and Bryon Nelson (T13). Then he went and missed two straight cuts at the Memorial and U.S. Open.

The No. 1 golfer in the world has a decent record at the British (since missing the cut in 2009, he has made it to the weekend in seven subsequent starts and finished T9 last year) and he’s the oddsmakers’ favorite to go all the way. He should make the cut but back injuries can flare up at any moment (right, Tiger?) so it’s anybody’s guess right now how the second-longest driver on the PGA Tour will do at Birkdale.

Brendan: Man, I did not expect to have this level of uncertainty with DJ in mid-July. It just seemed like he’d never slow down through the first quarter of this year. And if or when he did slow down, it was going to be in the way of finishing top 10 at events instead of winning them. Instead, his season has mostly been n/a since that fall at the Masters and the birth of his second child. So yes, he’s technically the favorite but on a course where driver is taken out of your hands for a majority of the holes, don’t go crazy on DJ, especially with that horrible 11-1 or 12-1 value he has as the favorite.

Brendan: Spieth is having arguably the best ball striking season of anyone in the world and coming off a win and nice long break. He’s getting a lot of love right now to win a third major. You get a shorter course with more strategy off the tee and all of a sudden everyone jumps on the Spieth wagon. I’m not sure the narrow fairways will suit him as well as everyone expects. Spieth will make the cut but finish out of contention around T25.

Emily: The almost-winner of the 2015 British will make the cut, as he has in all four Open Championships in which he’s competed. But no jug this year.

Emily: See above under the “big name” busts section.

Brendan: If you forced me to choose, I’d shade more towards Emily’s prediction of another early flameout. When Rory is on, he is the most exhilarating talent in the game. I enjoy watching no one more. But it’s not been fun to watch this year. I think he can turn it on at any moment, and our expectations are a little out-of-whack with him — his FedExCup title was not that long ago. I just think he’s still working through the equipment change and lost with the putter and searching with his short-irons.

Emily: Could be his year, after a T11 at the Masters and a T5 at the U.S. Open, though the winner of four PGA Tour events may be destined to remain one of the best golfers never to win a major.

Brendan: DJ may be the favorite by the odds, but based on everything I’ve read and heard, Rickie is the most popular pick this week. He plays his best in the wind that wipes away so many other American golfers uncomfortable in those conditions. He’s played well all year, including last week at the links-y Scottish Open. It would be more surprising to not see Rickie in the last five or six tee times on Sunday right now. I think he contends as he did at the U.S. but comes up short with another top-three finish.

Emily: Sorry, Sergio; this is the year of first-time major winners and after your Masters victory, you no longer qualify.

Emily: Tommy Fleetwood. It’s always an exercise in futility to try and pick a winner of any golf tournament on any given Sunday, but this year, at this event, it’s even more so. Given that caveat, the hometown kid is as good a bet as anyone else to win the 2017 British Wide Open. The 26-year-old Brit has posted top 10s in his last four events on the European Tour, including a fourth-place finish at the U.S. Open, has local knowledge of this week’s track since as a youngster he would sneak onto Birkdale, and has dreamed of winning this tournament since he was five.

Of course, that home-field billing could become more of a curse than a blessing, so if Fleetwood falters, we’ll throw a dart Hideki Matsuyama’s way, or maybe hedge our bets further and pick Brian Harman. Or even Rickie Fowler, because he’s overdue, right? In other words, who the heck knows?

Brendan: The streak of first-time major winners ends on Sunday with Sergio Garcia getting his second major of the season. This is Sergio’s event. He’s thrived at The Open for decades, especially in recent years, and should have a Jug, or even two, by now. While he has played less, he’s not exactly throttled down since his Masters win — consistently making cuts and contending when teeing it up. The narrow fairways and ball striking demands of this course play into Sergio’s strengths. The pressure of never winning a major is gone. He’s going to shape shots around these doglegs and through the crosswinds over four days of heart-eyes emoji world-class play at the major he wants most. He’s shown us that before at The Open but this time, it will end with the Jug.