PGA Championship 2017 picks and predictions: Rory McIlroy is the one to block Jordan Spieth’s slam pursuit

The final men’s major championship of the year is here, and it’s the most hyped it’s been in a long time. The PGA Championship got a huge boost when Jordan Spieth won the Claret Jug less than three weeks ago, setting the stage for potential history at Quail Hollow. Spieth can become the youngest ever to complete the career slam. But we’re at a course where maybe his contemporary rival and challenger for the next two decades, Rory McIlroy, has feasted and is the favorite.

It has all set up an incredible dynamic that is just a part of the 99th PGA. Here are some picks, predictions, and points to watch for this week in Charlotte.

Emily: Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama are the obvious candidates, with a bit of Matt Kuchar sprinkled into the mix. Sadly for them, they’ll all walk away from Quail Hollow with the “best golfers without a major” label still intact.

Brendan: We’ve gotten caught up a bit in the Spieth vs. Rory hype over the last two weeks and neglected some of the potential first-timers who fit this course perfectly. Fowler doesn’t have quite the track record of McIlroy, but as Kyle pointed out yesterday in his power rankings, it’s pretty dang good. And the same goes for Matsuyama, who just burned Firestone to the ground with a Sunday 61 and ran away from one of the deepest fields of the year. That kind of tee-to-green game that sets up for Firestone will play well here too (it plays well everywhere, of course, the advantage just might be greater at a setup like this). These two have as good a chance to win this week as McIlroy and Spieth.

Kyle: I think we’re all in agreement that Fowler & Matsuyama are the low-hanging fruit here, so let’s reach a bit higher on the tree -- but not much. I want to toss Thomas Pieters name in here. He’s got all the game in the world and that’s perfect here, but I think he’s still a bit green on the big stage. We’ve seen some nervy play at the Olympics, Masters, and last week at Firestone when contending in big events on the weekend. Sometimes you have to walk before you run, and sometimes you have to win a WGC or a Rolex event before we talk major championship.

I really, really like Justin Thomas in theory here at Quail. He’s the quintessential American player for the American game — big drives, hits it miles in the air — and I think we’re set to favor those type of players this week. It’s gonna be wet, it’s gonna be long. Perfect conditions to boom it and stick it. JT seems built to win a PGA, and perhaps it’s this one.

Brendan: The PGA, in theory, is the hardest major to win. You have the full top 100 in the world rankings on hand. The Masters field isn’t even 100 players total, with a swath being past champions and amateurs. The two Opens also have large chunks of their field reserved for qualifiers and other longshots or unexpected entrants. The PGA ensures everyone that’s at the top of the game is in the field, so there’s so many “darkhorse” picks with great value down the board. Tony Finau at 100/1 is good value, given his strokes gained off-the-tee advantage. Kevin Chappell, at 80/1, is a trendy pick this week given his season-long form and ability to boom it.

There’s just a lot to like with longer odds but I’ll give you just those two for fear of becoming one of those guys that rattles off an enormous list of names so they can say “they had that one” after the fact. That’s a scourge these days.

Kyle: Yeah, there’s a ton to like on down the board here. There’s a reason I think this is golf’s best major championship. It’s a deep field as Brendan said, and it’s often on the best setup. If you parse through all the sanctimony of the other three majors and just want to see a really quality championship, here’s often the best place to look. (I’ll admit that wasn’t the case last year).

I like bold picks, so I’ll give you two young names both with triple-digit odds to win: Xander Schauffele (100/1) and Patrick Rodgers (200/1). I’m all in on Schauffele after strong finishes at the last two majors, he bombs it, and should be your PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. As for Rodgers, we’re probably overdue to have him contend in a major. His professional career hasn’t yet materialized like his record-setting collegiate days at Stanford, but a T-2 here in 2015 behind Rory should give you some optimism if you’re looking waaaaay down the board for good value. I don’t know if either win, but I think both are solid bets to contend here.

Emily: Ian Poulter (80/1) has had a resurgent last few months after Brian Gay helped him keep his PGA Tour card for the season. He won’t win this week and will have to rid himself of memories of his T-61 finish at the 2016 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, but he did have a T-5 on the Charlotte track in 2009 so he could contend this week. Or not.

Emily: Bubba Watson. The two-time Masters champ is having a down season and teeing it up at Quail Hollow — where he posted his third of three missed cuts the last time around the Charlotte track in 2013 — won’t fix what ails him. But, hey, in a season of caddie musical chairs, he and Ted Scott are still a team so he has that going for him.

Brendan: I don’t have any great candidates here for this particular major, which I suppose is a good thing. Bubba is always a fit for this spot and you’ve covered him already, Emily. I have lower expectations for Jason Day, but I still find it hard to believe he’ll miss the cut. Perhaps Phil Mickelson misses his second straight major cut in what has become quite a lost year for the lefty.

Kyle: I have a confession: I’m a little concerned about Sergio this week. Okay, maybe not concerned. Kenny G just played his wedding and he’s clearly living his best life post-Masters win. But, we’re kinda overdue for Sergio to miss a cut. If there’s a time you’d be excused to no-show in a major, it’s coming off your dang wedding.

The upshot? Sergio doesn’t miss cuts anymore! Like ever! It’s been over a full calendar year since El Niño last missed a cut, since last year’s PGA in July. He’s made 20 straight worldwide, and missed exactly two in the last two years. That’s damn impressive. Tiger damaged our senses for appreciating consistency.

Brendan: I think Quail Hollow will work out fine as a major championship test, although we’ve heard some slight grumbling already about some of the Tom Fazio-redesigned holes on the front nine. For the most part, the players seem diplomatic about the changes. And it’s a course they have loved as a regular stop on the PGA Tour schedule. What may be dissatisfying to the TV viewer or the architecture nerd is not necessarily the view on the ground among those playing these courses at the highest levels.

Kyle: No. God no. Absolutely not. The schedule change is a horrible move that robs the PGA of any identity it had in the first place. Consider where the PGA’s been played, historically: the Midwest and Northeast.

The championship’s iconic venues that have provided excellent championships are all in cold-weather locales. Hazeltine in Minnesota. Medinah in Chicago. Baltusrol in New Jersey. Whistling Straights in Wisconsin. Oak Hill in upstate New York. Valhalla in Louisville. Oakland Hills in Detroit. Sure, sure -- weather is decent in May in many of those places, but the months leading up are what create the concern. You can’t prep a course for a major in March and April in cold temperatures, and it’s a strong possibility those great tracks are all axed from the rota.

What does that mean? More pro golf in areas that are already over-saturated with Tour stops: the Southeast, California, and perhaps Texas. No thanks!

Emily: Scheduling the event in May rather than August could give the event some momentum and may change the perception that the PGA is the little brother of the three other majors. This year, coming just three weeks after the British Open and seven days after the Women’s British Open, the PGA is most definitely the fourth major and reeks of majors overload.

Brendan: I’ve heard several persuasive arguments for why this schedule reshuffling is good for golf and different golf organizations. I’ve yet to hear a really compelling one for why it’s good for the PGA, which is, you know, the one event making the biggest move. I think the PGA Tour is a huge winner here, getting The Players back to March and now having all of August to get their FedExCup Playoffs done before football owns the sports landscape. I thought the PGA was an underrated and great major and perfectly suited for August, when there’s little competition. It may not have the identity of the other three, but it’s been a great championship in recent years (save for the Baltusrol bore of 2016).

Brendan: Mickelson has a strong track record here and has professed adoration for the course, but the 2017 languishing continues. I know it’s facile to point at the very obvious change and cite that as a cause for concern, but I do think he’s trying to find his way in the immediate events following the Bones separation.

Kyle: I’ll ask the uncomfortable question: Are we past the point where we seriously consider Mickelson a viable contender at 47? It’s starting to feel like last year’s duel at Troon with Henrik Stenson was kinda, like, it. He always plays well at Quail, but if not now, when?

Emily: Lefty misses Bones but not the cut this week at Quail Hollow, where he has nine top-10 finishes in 13 starts.

Kyle: This might be a golf litmus test for McIlroy this week. Let me explain.

I’m a believer in horses-for-courses, and there’s no horse more suited to a course than McIlroy to Quail Hollow. He’s the favorite, and I’d be inclined to say he’s an overwhelming favorite. We’ve had this penciled in as a McIlroy major win since Quail was announced as a venue, and it’s his tournament to lose. That’s a ton of pressure to put on the back of a player in a fickle sport, but we know how much he loves this golf course.

Now, if he doesn’t show up at all and ejects early? It’s probably due time to raise a round of valid questions about Rory moving forward.

Emily: If Jordan Spieth says Rors is the “guy to beat,” who am I to disagree? With his game rounding into form, his confidence sky high, the event one of his favorites (he has two Wanamaker Trophies to prove it), and this week’s tourney at one of the courses he enjoys most, McIlroy’s a good bet to hoist the hardware for his fifth major. But he’ll have to battle Dustin Johnson for the honor and this is just not his year.

Brendan: While Spieth does keep exceeding expectations and hitting milestones that put him in territory with Jack Nicklaus and Tiger, I don’t expect him to make history and become the youngest ever to win the career slam. He’s got 25 more years of trying at the PGA and I think he’s still coming down off the high of that Open finish. He also said on Sunday he needs to get his putting right. Spieth’s been too good this summer to just flop out, so I think he’ll be inside the top 15 come Sunday, but I don’t expect him to go back-to-back. It’s just too hard.

Kyle: Yeah, winning back-to-back is just really hard to do. Upshot? Spieth has already done it once. I don’t think Quail in wet conditions is suited for what Spieth does well. I’d be shocked to see him miss the cut, but I’d also be shocked to see anyone other than a big hitter win here this week.

Emily: It’s wait ‘til next year for the next Tiger Woods’ chance to complete the career grand slam.

Brendan: This is where the No. 1 player in the world rejoins the battle. He’s been mostly absent since his tumble down the stairs at the Masters, a point in the season where it seemed he was unstoppable. He’s not been the same since. Given the first quarter of the year, it seemed safe to think he’d get a second career major in 2017 on some courses built for his strengths. Quail Hollow favors the big hitters more than almost any major championship track ever, and Johnson does that as well as anyone. I think Johnson is back contending for a major this week, but comes up just shy with a T-2 finish.

Kyle: Sorry. Call me a curmudgeon, but I’ve sold my stock in DJ, Inc. February was a long time ago, and Johnson’s been a non-factor in the majors this year. Perhaps we’re seeing some regression to the mean. Bob Garrigus has more top-10s this summer than Johnson. Not good!

Emily: Dustin Johnson — After clocking the longest drive on the PGA Tour since 2013 Thursday at Firestone (a skull-imploding 439 yards!), it would appear the big guy’s back, which he injured ahead of the Masters, forcing him to withdraw, is no longer a problem. And after closing the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational with 68-66 over the weekend, Johnson told reporters at Quail Hollow that he was “finally coming back into [pre-Augusta] form.” That’s bad news for the rest of the field, especially with the world No. 1 predicting “a very good week” for himself. Save time and just etch his name on the Wanamaker now since the 2016 U.S. Open champ will cruise to a 15-under winning score (says this Golfstradamus who’s 0-for-2017 so far).

Brendan: I have come to make the chalkiest chalkity-chalk pick I think I’ve ever delivered in this space in some five years of doing these. I’ve been making fun of all the people who drone on about McIlroy having this great track record here and the advantage he’s got at Quail Hollow, as if it’s breaking news or some key insight. I’ve looked for other options. But I’m not comfortable with one and it would be a dereliction of duty just to pick a different winner when I truly love the McIlroy pick. So I’m adding to the chorus, jumping on the bandwagon, whatever terrible cliche you want to use.

His length off the tee is an enormous advantage and like Spieth at Augusta, things just happen for him here. He loves the place so much that the other parts of his game that have been weaknesses — approach shots, putting — actually get better too, creating a deadly combo with that driver. It just clicks and he gets super aggressive. It feels like picking the Warriors to win the NBA title or the Patriots to win the AFC East, which is an absurd comparison to make in a fickle game like golf with 156 players in the field. But the choice is McIlroy (at 12-under).

Kyle: Brendan’s talking about me. That’s me. I’m the idiot droning on and on about how obvious it is that McIlroy’s going to win this golf tournament. I’ve literally been doing it for years. This is the place he broke out, the place he loves, the place he’s dominated. He’s rounding into form. We’re overdue for a Rory major. Check. Check. Check. This seems too obvious. Anointing any one player as an overwhelming favorite to win any one event fails to understand how golf -- and math -- works. I’m going to do it anyway. McIlroy will win this golf tournament. It will be fun and awesome.

Keep in mind: I’m almost always violently wrong about everything, so we’re probably due for, like, a Grayson Murray win this week. So help us all.