The Match is trying to crowbar golf, or gambling on golf, into Thanksgiving weekend. Golf is not supposed to have a seat at the table on Thanksgiving weekend but Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, a bunch of money, and a bunch of TV and PR executives have worked to put it there. The winner-take-all event tees off at 3 p.m. ET on Friday at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas, which is an appropriate setting for an entertainment production that will be heavy on the gambling. Here are some thoughts and predictions for how this might go on Friday and what it might mean for the future.
Picks and predictions for the Tiger vs. Phil match in Las Vegas
No one fully knows what to expect from this Match experiment in Las Vegas. But here are some predictions for how it will go and how it will look.
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images for The Match
Is this a possible model for more events like this?
Brendan: It’s a possible model. I think there are way too many 72-hole stroke play events but the PGA Tour is run by the players and thus it’s dedicated to creating “playing opportunities” for its members. The result is a glut of useless events that just don’t need to be there and aren’t drawing any kind of audience to the game. Mixing it up in format, in presentation, and in production seems like a good start of a model that could work. Also focusing on the stars that might actually draw an audience and sponsors, and not the sprawling middle of the pack that makes up much of the PGA Tour, could be the potential start of an alternative pro golf business.
I don’t know if we’ll ever get an accurate accounting reported publicly, but I think putting this on Pay-Per-View is a risk. The players will make their money off this one but if it flops, that could impact what I think are larger plans to have some sort of stake in a Tiger-Phil business that runs many more of these matches. So I guess let’s wait and see how many people this actually scoops up before we analyze its viability. I do think pro golf is screaming out for different kind of events outside the dominant PGA Tour.
Kyle: Uh, sure, I guess. This is a tough one for me. I’ve led the charge on Golf Twitter for alternative formats for awhile and caped for the amazing job Keith Pelley and the Euro Tour have done changing up the traditional 72-hole, stroke-play model. GolfSixes is awesome. Belgian Knockout? Love it. Hell, turning the Austrian event into the SHOT CLOCK CHALLENGE? Give me more of it. I’m also nostalgic for the Monday Night Golf events of the early 2000s — under the lights and in primetime. All are ways to get the game in front of a new audience and freshen up what can feel like a long slog of a pro golf schedule.
This? This feels more like a transparent and bad grift from two insanely rich guys who somehow need more money. It doesn’t matter! I think it sucks! I don’t want to watch it!
We only have press releases and plans, but what has this experiment done right so far and what has it done wrong?
Brendan: I ran through this in many more words on Tuesday afternoon. The rollout was a mess and I still think the timing and date could be better. Bump it to mid-December. Play it under the lights somewhere. The price point may eliminate a section of the audience, too. As for things done right, I think the broadcast could be fantastic with the different probabilities and odds on the screen. It’s improved from the early rollout and the operation appears to have its shit together at the right time.
Kyle: It’s all pretty much been bad, honestly. The broadcast will be neat, if you could watch it. There’s an air of exclusivity to this event that sucks, when it should be utilized to broaden golf’s reach. Pay-Per-View. Shadow Creek. No fans. It’s awful and everything bad I hate about the game.
The whole thing’s just miserably contrived. Phil’s social media presence. The forced, awful social media promos. Like, god, look at this. I want to die.
Do Phil and Tiger like each other now? I don’t know. Did they realize mid-summer it would be financially advantageous to both of them to feign amicability? Absolutely.
What’s the next “Match” you’d like to see? Or would have preferred to see this time around?
Brendan: Can I say Tiger vs. Sergio? It would be like this one, minus all the mutual admiration and Phil’s goofy jokes that are labeled trash talk but really just cut any kind of tension and actually put everyone at ease. They’d probably be complimentary and play nice, but it certainly would seem less like a mutually beneficial cash grab. This can feel like Tiger and Phil are in on it together for a paycheck. Sergio and Tiger would feel like they agreed to a bout they both knew they’d profit from in the end. That relationship may have settled too, but they will never be cool with one another. It feels like a window for the two of them playing this kind of match is just about closed and I would have loved to see it here instead.
Kyle: Sergio and Tiger would be great because it wouldn’t be contrived! I’d love to see Pat Reed in one of these things, because true heels lean into this stuff. But here’s a better idea: Anthony Kim vs. anyone. Whoever he’d like to play. Tiger? Ty Tryon? Yuta Ikeda? Whoever you want, AK. Just however we can get an hour interview & a few swings on tape.
Do you, personally, care about this? Do you think others will care about this?
Brendan: I care, dammit! But up to a certain point. My eyes are wide open and I know this is less a competition and more a manufactured production to make a bunch of rich people even richer. I’m more curious about how it will look and the impact it could have on some sort of alt-golf league in the future than the actual match. So I will watch for curiosity based in that. I think others care and this has registered with the wider sports world more than I expected. Now do they $20 care, too?
Kyle: No.
Not at all. Not even a little. I’m a golf writer. I will watch damn near any tournament in the world. I will watch the World Cup of Golf on this very same weekend. I will watch, uh, [squints] UCF-South Florida during this window with zero remorse.
People will care, of course — because it’s different. But there are no real stakes here, nothing matters, it’s not particularly unique. It is, at best, one of the traveling tennis roadshow exhibition matches. At worst, again, it’s a corporatized grift to help a couple of very rich men grease their cash flows. There is no staying power to this, it is not Monday Night Golf. It is a one-off cash grab and I do not like it.
Ok, well at least state the strongest case or make a pitch for why you should watch this and it could be fun!
Brendan: That is my case. It will be a completely new kind of production, at least for golf. There will be plenty of nostalgia if you’re into that kind of thing. Also, there’s already $200k in a side bet on the line for the very first hole. Phil predicts those side bets will get into the seven figures. So I think that will be legitimately entertaining, much more than the actual golf shots. It’s their own money on the line for the side bets and that’s something we never see. If it gets real reckless and out of hand, it becomes the feature of this whole Match.
Kyle: You’ll be sick of family by that point, the malls will be crowded, Iowa-Nebraska will be a blowout, and USF isn’t very good. Might as well pay $19.99 to avoid a second straight day of family and distract yourself for a couple hours from our slow, inevitable march toward death!
Who wins The Match and why?
Brendan: This is honestly the part I care about the least but I do think Tiger wins. Phil’s game looked horrendous to end the year. It wasn’t great really since the Spring. Does that mean much for this Match? Probably not but if he can’t put the ball in the fairway, and it seems unlikely he can, Tiger has the advantage. He’s the favorite and that’s who I’m rolling with on Friday.
Kyle: The sportsbook nearest to Phil’s suite.
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