Why Tiger Woods has a better chance to win the Masters than Rory McIlroy

Tiger Woods has four green jackets to Rory McIlroy’s none, and if Brandel Chamblee and David Duval are right in their prognostications, the 42-year-old with a fused spine is more likely to capture his fifth fairway green-hued blazer than the healthy 28-year-old is to earn his first.

With Woods and McIlroy performing at last week’s Honda Classic, Duval asked his Golf Channel colleague which of the two superstars was closer to playing great golf.

“To me it’s an obvious answer and I think that says a lot about what’s going on,” Duval said during a Thursday teleconference.

What’s going on is Woods’ comeback after four back surgeries is proceeding nicely, while McIlroy has been far less remarkable since he returned last month to the PGA Tour from his own injury, a fractured rib he incurred at the start of 2017. Indeed, many pundits swear it’s only a matter of time before Woods chalks up tour win No. 80.

Observing that Woods needs more tournament reps and he could add next week’s Valspar Championship to his sparse pre-Augusta schedule (Woods added that event and Bay Hill in two weeks to his calendar on Friday), Chamblee said what he witnessed last week was enough for him to pronounce Woods ready for his closeup next month in Georgia.

”I saw mostly what I needed to see at the Honda to think he could be an absolute contender at Augusta National,” said Chamblee.

Woods’ stats support Chamblee’s contention as well as cast some doubt on his ability to be in the hunt at Augusta. He may be cranking it off the tee at an average 306 yards and a 29th ranking, for example, but he’s 213th in driving accuracy.

The latter figure has led to Woods ranking a pedestrian 208th in par-5 scoring. Those holes used to be his bread and butter, as did his short game, which is certainly better than when he demonstrated the chipping yips in 2015, but 93rd in strokes gained around the green won’t win anyone a Masters trophy.

What cheered critics like Chamblee especially was Woods’ 124 mph average swing speed at the Honda, as well as his play on the greens, where he ranks 16th overall in strokes gained putting.

“He’s comfortable cutting his tee shots. He can get away with hitting 3-wood around the corner on 13. He’s not so comfortable hitting draw drivers but he can bomb a cut at eight, bomb a cut at 15. And his iron play was very sharp. His short game was far sharper than I ever thought I’d see it again,” Chamblee explained. “I think he’s very close … It will surprise nobody if he’s very close to the lead all through that tournament, the Masters.”

McIlroy, on the other hand, not so much. In fact, the winner of four major titles may be alone in his assessment that he’s near competing for a top spot anywhere, let alone in a major.

“I’m close,” McIlroy said ahead of his week at the Honda, where he struggled to make the cut and finished in a share of 59th place. “I’m very happy with where my game is at. I feel like I’m just waiting for everything to sort of fit together. I feel like I’ve seen enough good things in my game over the past few weeks to know that it’s not far away.”

He also had positive things to say about his work on the greens.

“Putting feels good,” he said after a second-round 2-over 72 at PGA National that included a triple-bogey at the treacherous par-3 17th hole.

“Not at all, geez, no. Not at all,” he said about whether he lost sleep over a bad putting day. “I’ve made big strides in my putting … I feel good about it.”

McIlroy claims there’s no pressure on him to win at Augusta and complete the career grand slam and he kicked off his year with a hot start on the European Tour by posting a T3 and an second-place finish in two starts in the Middle East.

Then came his 2018 PGA Tour debut, which lasted just two rounds when he missed the cut at Pebble Beach. He followed that with a T20 at Riviera and the Honda, where he looked shaky with his irons and putting.

“I think he’s probably as far as he’s ever been to being back to where he was,” Chamblee said about McIlroy, whose last victory was the 2016 Tour Championship. “His iron play has never been worse … He’s completely out of sorts.”

Opining that “it’s not the Rory McIlroy that won four major championships,” Chamblee noted “he’s still a formidable player, no question about it, and there’s still a threat there.

“But,” added Chamblee, “he’s gone into Augusta every year of his career in better shape than he’s in right now.”

The numbers indicate that McIlroy has work to do in several areas, as he ranks 124th in driving accuracy, 182nd in greens in regulation, and 60th in strokes gained putting.

“I think Rory’s putting continues to put pressure on his iron game, and until he figures that out, he comes out a little bit better and more consistent on the greens, it could potentially be doing what he’s doing right now … is ruining other parts of his game,” Duval said. “I feel like he’s struggling, and you have to keep forcing it closer and closer to the hole. You are going to miss golf shots. You’re going to be in bad spots. And I think that’s part of what’s happening right now.”