The third men’s major championship can often be the toughest to project. The British Open is a completely different style of challenge for the best players in the world. It can yield unknown, random champions and it can also produce some epic duels among the players at the top of the world rankings. Weather can wipe out half the field or completely change the dynamic of a hot round when you’re out in the middle of it.
Is Tiger Woods actually a value play at Carnoustie?
It’s almost impossible to find value in Tiger Woods’ odds, but this week may be as close as it gets.
Photo by Harry How/Getty Images
Carnoustie is reputed as the toughest course in the Open rota and this year’s edition will be a fascinating test due to a summer drought. Scotland is “baked out,” as they say and it’s giving these players different strategy options. Mid-irons are running out to 300 yards and drivers are running out well in excess of 400 yards. The fairways are faster than the greens and the course is playing like concrete. The rough is also much thinner and less penal than they’re used to at Carnoustie.
That’s led to a host of bombers saying they’re going to grip and rip it and if it goes into the rough, no big deal. They will have cleared the trouble and pot bunkers. Others have said they’ll hit more accurate mid-irons and still roll out into a desirable position. Some, like Phil Mickelson, have said they’ll fall somewhere in between mixing in more drivers than expected but also hanging back and utilizing the roll with shorter clubs.
It led Brandel Chamblee to say on Monday night that this felt like the most “open” major in some time. The odds corroborate that sense again, as we’ve seen at the first two majors this year. World No. 1 Dustin Johnson is the favorite again, but it’s not by a commanding margin. In past years, we’ve seen favorites listed down in the 5 or 6 or 7/1 range. At his peak, Tiger was an absurd 2 or 3/1 to win majors. This year, the favorites are often listed up in the double digits and DJ comes in lowest at 12/1 this week.
Tiger Woods comes in at the 25/1 slot which is ... kinda good value as far as Tiger goes? You’re almost never getting the real value for Tiger because the public money just pours in on the biggest draw in the history of the game. That pushes the books’ exposure upward and they continually bump his odds down to protect themselves, even if Tiger has no real chance to hang with the players at the top of the world rankings.
But he’s playing well this summer and this might be the major, especially with these conditions, that gives him the best chance to win over the final decade or so of his career. This season, he’s playing more like a top 20 player in the world and has shown he can contend on Tour again. He also knows how to play a links-style course better than almost anyone in the field. A 25/1 number is not bad!
Here are your odds (via Jeff Sherman at Golfodds and the Vegas SuperBook) to win The Open with a couple days to go at Carnoustie:
2018 British Open Odds
Player | Odds to Win |
|---|---|
| Dustin Johnson | 12/1 |
| Justin Rose | 14/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 16/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 16/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 20/1 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 20/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 20/1 |
| Jon Rahm | 20/1 |
| Justin Thomas | 25/1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 25/1 |
| Tiger Woods | 25/1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 25/1 |
| Alex Noren | 25/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 25/1 |
| Jason Day | 30/1 |
| Patrick Reed | 30/1 |
| Paul Casey | 30/1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 40/1 |
| Marc Leishman | 40/1 |
| Branden Grace | 40/1 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 40/1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 50/1 |
| Ian Poulter | 50/1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 60/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 60/1 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | 60/1 |
| Zach Johnson | 60/1 |
| Tony Finau | 60/1 |
| Bubba Watson | 60/1 |
| Russell Knox | 60/1 |
| Adam Scott | 80/1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 80/1 |
| Rafael Cabrera Bello | 80/1 |
| Thomas Pieters | 80/1 |
| Xander Schauffele | 80/1 |
| Lee Westwood | 80/1 |
| Patrick Cantlay | 100/1 |
| Shane Lowry | 100/1 |
| Webb Simpson | 100/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 100/1 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 100/1 |
| Ryan Fox | 100/1 |
| Byeong Hun An | 125/1 |
| Charley Hoffman | 125/1 |
| Brian Harman | 125/1 |
| Haotong Li | 125/1 |
| Andy Sullivan | 125/1 |
| Luke List | 125/1 |
| Chris Wood | 125/1 |
| Daniel Berger | 150/1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 150/1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 150/1 |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 150/1 |
| Jason Dufner | 150/1 |
| Russell Henley | 150/1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 150/1 |
| Emiliano Grillo | 150/1 |
| Paul Dunne | 150/1 |
| Gary Woodland | 150/1 |
| Peter Uihlein | 150/1 |
| Ross Fisher | 150/1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 150/1 |
| Danny Willett | 150/1 |
| Dylan Frittelli | 150/1 |
| Matthew Southgate | 150/1 |
| Stewart Cink | 150/1 |
| Kevin Na | 150/1 |
| Ryan Moore | 150/1 |
| Kyle Stanley | 200/1 |
| Kevin Kisner | 200/1 |
| Si Woo Kim | 200/1 |
| Padraig Harrington | 200/1 |
| Cameron Smith | 200/1 |
| Anirban Lahiri | 200/1 |
| Alexander Bjork | 200/1 |
| Julian Suri | 200/1 |
| Beau Hossler | 200/1 |
| Retief Goosen | 200/1 |
| Eddie Pepperell | 200/1 |
| Kevin Chappell | 250/1 |
| Adam Hadwin | 250/1 |
| Shubhankar Sharma | 250/1 |
| Chesson Hadley | 250/1 |
| Alexander Levy | 250/1 |
| Chez Reavie | 250/1 |
| Brendan Steele | 250/1 |
| Pat Perez | 250/1 |
| Charles Howell III | 250/1 |
| Yusaku Miyazato | 250/1 |
| Matt Wallace | 250/1 |
| Jorge Campillo | 250/1 |
| Austin Cook | 250/1 |
| Brandon Stone | 250/1 |
| Michael Kim | 250/1 |
| Nicolas Colsaerts | 300/1 |
| George Coetzee | 300/1 |
| Matt Jones | 300/1 |
| Jonas Blixt | 300/1 |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 300/1 |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 300/1 |
| Shaun Norris | 300/1 |
| Marcus Kinhult | 300/1 |
| Bronson Burgoon | 300/1 |
| Jason Kokrak | 300/1 |
| Andrew Landry | 300/1 |
| Satoshi Kodaira | 500/1 |
| Scott Jamieson | 500/1 |
| Jordan Smith | 500/1 |
| Ernie Els | 500/1 |
| Cameron Davis | 500/1 |
| Fabrizio Zanotti | 500/1 |
| Yuta Ikeda | 500/1 |
| Hideto Tanihara | 500/1 |
| Bernhard Langer | 500/1 |
| Patton Kizzire | 500/1 |
| Ryan Armour | 500/1 |
| Abraham Ancer | 500/1 |
| Sung Kang | 500/1 |
| Tom Lewis | 500/1 |
| Zander Lombard | 500/1 |
| Kelly Kraft | 500/1 |
| Jens Dantorp | 500/1 |
| Sean Crocker | 1000/1 |
| Gavin Green | 1000/1 |
| Michael Hendry | 1000/1 |
| Brett Rumford | 1000/1 |
| Shota Akiyoshi | 1000/1 |
| Danthai Boonma | 1000/1 |
| Brady Schnell | 1000/1 |
| Darren Clarke | 1000/1 |
| Lucas Herbert | 1000/1 |
| Jazz Janewattananond | 1000/1 |
| Tom Lehman | 1000/1 |
| Kodai Ichihara | 1000/1 |
| Ryuko Tokimatsu | 1000/1 |
| Sanghyun Park | 1000/1 |
| Minchel Choi | 1000/1 |
| Oliver Wilson | 1000/1 |
| Grant Forrest | 1000/1 |
| Jack Senior | 1000/1 |
| Nicolai Hojgaard | 1000/1 |
| Masanori Kobayashi | 2000/1 |
| Masahiro Kawamura | 2000/1 |
| Yuxin Lin | 2000/1 |
| Mark Calcavecchia | 2000/1 |
| Jovan Rebula | 2000/1 |
| Ashton Turner | 2000/1 |
| Rhys Enoch | 2000/1 |
| Marcus Armitage | 2000/1 |
| Sam Locke | 2000/1 |
| James Robinson | 2000/1 |
| Haraldur Magnus | 2000/1 |
| Thomas Curtis | 2000/1 |
| Todd Hamilton | 3000/1 |
| David Duval | 3000/1 |
| Sandy Lyle | 3000/1 |
See More:
