It has been 25 years since the United States won a Ryder Cup on European soil. The last two decades have brought Euro dominance, but a new generation of talent is turning over the American roster. And a new “task force” process, put in place following the 2014 embarrassment in Scotland, worked in a home win at Hazeltine in 2016. Now comes another test for that talent and system in Paris, where the Euro team is not-quite-as-loaded but still loaded and playing on a course, Le Golf National, they know well.
2018 Ryder Cup picks and predictions: Tiger Woods makes his Team USA return
Woods is back, fresh off a win, and ready to lead an American team that has not won a Ryder Cup in Europe in 25 years.
Tiger Woods is back, and fresh off a win. Phil Mickelson has not missed a Cup since 1993, the last U.S. win in Europe. They’re the leaders of a team with young talent that has now shown out at different times over the last four years and doesn’t have the scar tissue of those veterans.
On the other side are Justin Rose, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Ryder Cup legends (and pests) Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter. Predicting a Ryder Cup, when match play is such a departure from the usual weekly stroke play and the environment is completely different, can be a fool’s errand. But we bat around a few predictions for the weekend in Paris.
Do the captains have any effect, for better or worse, on this 2018 edition?
Kyle: Captaining is always an interesting one to me — it’s kind of the only time during the year the mainstream public gets exposed to any sort of a true team “coach” in golf. Whether it’s coaching a college golf team or managing a Ryder Cup, it’s something like managing in baseball — you’re massaging the talent you have on that day, manipulating matchups, and setting up a cheeky strategic decision here or there. Furyk’s not going to make Tiger play poorly, Thomas Bjorn’s not going to alone pull Sergio out of his summer of suck. But smart decisions on pairings, listening to your players, and not trying to overcoach? That’s the most successful thing any captain can do.
Brendan: The captains always have an impact, although I’d say it more often shades toward the negative impact. You can get some headstrong hall-of-famer that just goes down in flames and totally screws up the team, like a Tom Watson or Nick Faldo. But for the most part, I think the system on both sides now has put some guardrails up and ensured the captains stick to a similar year-over-year process. I think Furyk fully embraces the task force changes that put more power into the players’ hands — he was a part of the overhaul. He should be a positive captain and his poor record as a player means nothing to the job.
Who or what is your biggest concern for the European team?
Brendan: There’s data that says rookies and inexperience don’t really have a negative effect on a team’s success. I do have some mild concerns about two particular Euro rookies this year in Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton, who are both hotheads and could blow up at any time, much to the dismay of their partner. Europe had a few rookies that were almost unplayable in 2016 in Matt Fitzpatrick, Andy Sullivan, and Danny Willett. It’s good to have rookies, but when they start to make up almost half your team, it can get dangerous (there were six in 2016 and five this year). Especially when your vets are struggling or injured, like Sergio Garcia and Henrik Stenson, who should also be a concern for Euro fans!
Kyle: Nothing jumps out to me here as a super big deal. Sure, Henrik’s health is a key to getting the most out of Justin Rose. Sergio’s been back and forth in form. Rookies. I’m wondering about something a little more out there.
I think the European side’s going to have a chip on their shoulder about the hype around this American team — and deservedly so. All we’ve heard from American golf writers is how much of a rout this particular Ryder Cup’s going to be. If you think guys like Sergio, Ian Poulter, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton, Rory aren’t paying attention to that, well, heh.
Playing with a chip on your shoulder is great, but different guys handle it better than others. Add to that a home crowd and that massive grandstand on the first ... is it possible to be too jacked up to play? I think I’m worried about the Euros trying too hard to not just win, but make a statement. We’ll see.
Who or what is your biggest concern for the American side?
Kyle: They don’t win in Europe! Ever! Since moving to the full-European side in 1979, Americans have won in just twice, and not at all since 1993. And it’s not always close losses either. Two of the last three Ryder Cups in Europe have been complete American meltdowns. The 2006 American team at K Club will go down as one of the most woefully impotent sides in Ryder Cup history, and 2014 gave us the Phil steamrolling of Tom Watson. The bright spot of the last 20 years of US Ryder Cup teams in Europe is Jeff F***ing Overton screaming ‘BOOM BABY’ from the top of a hill in the Welsh countryside in another eventual loss. Go Hoosiers.
Anyway, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Bryson DeChambeau’s ages were all measured in months the last time it happened. Taking the Ryder Cup on the road is a completely different experience, and it’s why I thought deeming the Task Force a smashing success and assuming Americans would win the next 6,000 Ryder Cups because of the relative talent depth was a little, uh, shortsighted.
Brendan: I think Phil could mess around and screw up some points. I don’t think he’s going to play more than one match per day though. This is like saying your biggest weakness in a job interview is that you take on too many things or work too hard, but honestly, I think a concern is that Team USA might be too deep and have too many playing options that it scrambles the board. It looks like the Spieth/Reed team is breaking up, which is puzzling, but understandable given all the young talent around them on the roster.
I just think the depth here leaves the USA with fewer role players, you know, lunch pail, utility players, grit, hardhat guys — OK I’ll stop now. On the serious side, I just think the depth presents Furyk with a ton of tough decisions. Choose wisely!
Who will have the most awkward celebration or reaction?
Kyle: I’d like to place money on the Zach Johnson, assistant captain, birdie dance. Thank you for your time and I’m sorry to place this thought in your head. It will be shown as anti-American propaganda for years and we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves.
Brendan: Bryson DeChambeau, God love him, is gong to have some horribly awkward outburst of a reaction. It may be spontaneous in the moment, but it will look anything but natural.
Who from each team is most likely to be involved in a confrontation of some sort?
Brendan: I think Hatton could have a run-in if he’s a little hot under the collar. Or Rory could get feisty with his U.S. counterparts. I think he’s just frustrated with his season, has the resume that permits it, knows several of Americans well enough to go at it, and would be quick to maybe snap at someone. So he’ll be my Euro choice. On the U.S. side, I could see Brooks Koepka channeling that inner Tallahassee bar scene experience and challenging the Euros on something he didn’t like up around the green.
Does Bubba make it through the week without an outburst or complaining about France?
Brendan: I think Bubba is a new-ish man. He’s still completely unpredictable, but the lashing out and public whining have receded and I think he’s just happy to be here after his assistant captain’s role in 2016. No disparaging remarks about that “tower thing” they got in Paris.
Who do you expect, either as a single or a pairing, to either carry or lead the Americans?
Brendan: Tiger Woods and Patrick Reed, babay. It’s going to be wild.
Who do you expect, either as a single or a pairing, to either carry or lead the Europeans?
Brendan: I think Tommy Fleetwood is going to be a menace. There are also rumblings that he will partner with some combination of Ian Poulter and Francesco Molinari. All of these combos sound lethal, as well as Fleetwood individually.
Whether it’s realistic or not, what’s a pairing you absolutely want to see more than any other?
Kyle: SERGIO AND POULTS, LET’S GET WILD. Age and form be damned, there’s nothing I need more than the two wily ol’ European vets who’ve owned this competition putting a buzzsaw on the American hype. Even Patrick Reed would struggle stealing these points.
Brendan: Listen, I think Tiger and Phil would be cool. The mania around it and the coverage of it would be nauseating. But it would be very cool to see them play together in what could be their last ever Ryder Cup together, especially in Europe. It’s not the smartest idea and it does not sound like it will happen, but they’re both at a point in their careers where they now seem open and even desirous of it.
Tiger Woods is back. He’s not exactly been a huge help in his Ryder Cup career. What is his impact this year?
Kyle: I think it’s more positive energy than anything else. Think of the boost it’s got to give to the rest of the roster to have Tiger Woods winning the last event coming into this team. The Americans were already riding high on a wave of American press-driven hype. Tiger hitting the apex of his return right before the Ryder Cup’s got to change things.
I’m curious to see who he’ll pair with, and the effectiveness of the duo. Trying to beat Tiger is one thing. Will the young guys feel pressure playing alongside him? I don’t know.
Brendan: He has a massive impact. Tiger has an entirely different outlook on these team events. Before, he saw his teammates as threats to all he was trying to accomplish in his career. Now he’s been off these teams, thrown himself completely into assistant captain roles, and feels less threatened by a younger generation.
He wants to be there. He wants to kick some ass and put points up on the board. And he’s also playing like a top-five player in the world right now, striping it over the entire summer and peaking at the end. That will play well on a course where that second shot into greens is paramount.
The Americans are the favorites. Who takes the Cup and what’s the final tally?
Kyle: OK. I’m personally skeptical that the Americans are the favorites here, when you really dig into to things. Grade a Ryder Cup projection on four items: Form, experience, course setup, and location. The U.S. gets a milder-than-you-realize upper-hand on form, sure. Maybe offset that completely with the location of the event in Europe. Experience is a push. What does that leave? Setup. Le Golf National will favor ballstrikers, not bludgeoners — and to me that favors guys like Fleetwood, Rose, Molinari, Noren, Garcia, and, if he’s healthy, Stenson. Euros, 15.5-12.5. And, boooooooy, we’ll have to eat some crow here in the States.
Brendan: It will not be a walk, but the USA ends the 25-year drought on European soil as this new, younger roster begins a run of dominance in this competition. Both teams are loaded and to say one is a heavy favorite or should win is stupid. I just think Europe has more weak points — a couple unpredictable rookies, a couple inconsistent legendary vets — that could be the difference in a 16-12 loss.
