Picks and predictions for The Players Championship

The strongest field in golf returns to the month of March and begins what the PGA Tour would like us to believe is now the “season of championships.” That is a cheeky bit of obfuscation that walks up to the line of “major championship season” or, hell, is maybe a complete end-around way of saying this is now, basically, major championship season.

However you characterize The Players Championship, and however the Tour wants to market it, the championship is undeniably one of golf’s best and most important events. It is also notoriously tough to predict, with random winners emerging based off no form and superstars playing at their best suddenly imploding. The move back to March will also present an entirely different challenge that much of this field, at least the under-40 set, has never really seen. So with all that uncertainty, we still hopelessly attempt to sort out what might happen this week and who we most want to watch at TPC Sawgrass. Here are some themes to watch for and picks for the week.

Brendan: I do not feel qualified to speak to the architectural merits of the course, but Sawgrass is a good-to-great venue for a championship of this caliber. It is not Augusta National or Riviera, but it’s among the top five venues we see every year on the non-rotating schedules of mens’s pro golf. They know exactly how to set it up for a party and it presents great on TV. There are holes that permit birdie and even eagle runs and those that provoke massive blowups at the most critical times. I think it’s what you want for an annual and reliable TV product.

Kyle: I’m not one to partake in handwringing about architecture, I think that’s well established. The things that make for great, memorable championships go far beyond layouts and, uh, architectural purity isn’t at the top of the list of the problems golf has. Totally fine if you’re into that sort of thing! I’m just not, and neither are 90 percent of the viewers of a given event.

That said! If you’re part of the BALL GO TOO FAR crowd and also lamenting Sawgrass, well, I’m not sure what I can do for you. Pete Dye’s swamp can be repetitive and overly-penal, sure — but if you’re looking for a course that demands shotmaking and can’t be mashed to death, it’s a pretty good option. I’ve always been a fan of this place and this championship. LONG LIVE SWAMP CARNIVAL GOLF.

Brendan: Ummm, I think I like the move back to March? I know the world demands definitive takes but can I wait until Monday, or maybe even a couple years of this thing back in March? It feels more appropriate to have a Florida event now, as opposed to mid-May. The event came up quick on the schedule — I know I did not feel quite ready for it. The course is softer but I am intrigued by these alleged March winds that will make these holes play dramatically different.

For instance, in practice rounds, per Will Gray of Golf Channel, Tiger Woods hit 3-wood and 3-iron on the 18th hole this week. He hit 3-iron and 9-iron before when it was in May. Jason Day went from a 2-iron and sand-wedge to having to hit driver and 5-iron in the March winds this week. Rory McIlroy went from a usual driver-wedge play to a driver-6-iron. Sign me up for that! I am not a fan of the PGA moving to May, but I think I’m good with the Players in March.

Kyle: I’m fine with The Players moving to March in a vacuum. May is probably a bit too late for a Florida event. It has always been associated with the early season and it’s historically been a great primer to kick into CHAMPIONSHIP SEASON. But, yeah, the move isn’t happening in a vacuum. I’m on record that the overall schedule change is bad, will be bad, and will continue to be bad because it’s going to shortchange certain areas of the country from top-level professional golf over the long term.

So: Players in March? Good! Reason it is in March? Bad.

Kyle: Don’t think The Players thing even registers on the scale anymore! Ball rollback, new rules, complaining about the USGA generally, Playoffs, architecture discourse — there’s a smorgasbord of tedium that all has a very deck-chairs-on-The-Titanic feel when it comes to the future of golf. I’m gonna get yelled at for this one, perhaps deservedly, but I would rather you shoot me out of an airlock than listen to one more day of the current Slow Play discourse. There’s lots of money on the line! Tournament golf has too many holes! The difference between a 5 hour and 6 hour broadcast is “too long” and “also too long.” The Players will be a major the second it moves to two-12 hole seeding rounds and a round-of-16 match play weekend. Make me commissioner.

Brendan: The one where we ask “who is the best at their best” in this post-Woods era of young talents is what I often find the most useless and exhausting discussion. While the topic is important with significant impacts, I also am just about out of energy indulging and listening to people yell at each other about a ball rollback. But given the instant week, I think the Players as a major debate has been fully exhausted. There’s nothing left to say or discuss. Nothing is changing and we don’t need to holler about it anymore.

Brendan: I am taking Kevin Kisner at 80/1. The softer conditions will make it play longer and put him at a slight disadvantage, but Kisner has played well on Pete Dye courses, including this one, where he pushed Rickie Fowler in that playoff a few years ago. He also entered Sunday at Bay Hill in the top five, despite an underwhelming putting performance. Improve that slightly this week and he should make the cut and contend again come the weekend. At 80/1, he’s worth looking at below that cluster of favorites.

Kyle: I think I’m heading toward being all-in on Sungjae Im. If you’re not familar, you should get familiar quick. At now just 20 years old, Im was the stud of the Web Tour last year — and already has three top-tens on this current PGA Tour season, including one last week at Bay Hill. He’s going to be a stud, and I won’t be stunned if he’s in the coverage on Sunday.

Brendan: The Englishman Tyrrell Hatton. He’s not exactly some random player down the world rankings. We’ve seen him in WGCs and Ryder Cups and even dabbled with him at majors. But the American audience still probably doesn’t know much about this diminutive ballstriker. His game is fun to watch but his temperament is the real source of entertainment. He’s a ticking bomb and you’re guaranteed at least a couple exasperated one-liners or an all-out tantrum when he’s in focus on the coverage.

Kyle: S E R G I O. I’m going to make Brendan have an actual stroke, but we’re entering a prime week for our ebullient temper-tantrum having boy to buck his head. Remove his [takes out Sergio Watercarrier talking points card] uhhhhh courageous protest for regime change in Saudi Aradia and the week of kissing babies on Instagram at Riv? You’ve got a man with eight-consecutive top-ten finishes worldwide! Is Sergio a bad guy? Perhaps! A lunatic that you have no business cheering for? Absolutely! Someone that’s going to vault himself into contention this weekend and send us all to the Nuclear Take Zone? YOU KNOW IT.

Kyle: The PR tour is working. I’m becoming infatuated with Brooks Koepka in a way that I’ve never been before, and the thought of him trying to navigate a Sawgrass that doesn’t particularly suit his strengths seems fascinating to me. I’ve bought into the idea that he might have legitimate cross-sport star power that can fill some sort of a void for the next decade. Winning at a place like Sawgrass would dispel the notion that he’s only a horse-for-a-certain type of course. I’m curious.

Brendan: Jordan Spieth. I think he’s must-watch right now and not because it is particularly good golf. I started the year insisting that Spieth will be fine, there’s no need to panic, and he’ll win majors again. You don’t enjoy seeing him struggle, but that doesn’t make it any less compelling and tension-filled to watch him right now. After an initial run in 2014, his record here is poor. That history combined with the present state makes him a primary subject of interest for me with the Masters bearing down on us.

Brendan: Woods’ biggest issue is his putter and that’s reportedly why he has new second-set of eyes in Matt Killen trailing him around this week. The putter is the thing that starts to go first as you age out in professional golf, and Killen trailing him around taking videos with his phone won’t change that. Setting that putting aside, Woods is still playing good golf this year! He’s back among the best ballstrikers in the world and has been better at each event. I fully expect him to make the cut, but slot somewhere around 30th as he tries to stay healthy and gear up for the Masters. Winning another Players at this point doesn’t do much in the grand scheme of things. Winning a green jacket does.

Kyle: Top 10? Top 15? Woods’ start to the year has been fine, just fine, and he’s going to be fine. I think the putting woes will normalize, the neck isn’t as bad as we’ve all speculated (or never was), and beyond that he’s had a really solid start to the year. Woods’ playing for four events, and he’s on track to head into the Masters I think in as solid form of last year — just with a bit less fanfare. I think this week’s results matter a lot less than if he just sees the ball start going in the hole with the flatstick. The ballstriking is there — and we’re all eyeing the second weekend in April.

Brendan: The Players is arguably hardest event in golf to predict. There are models that corroborate just how unpredictable it has been over the years, both in March and May. We’ve seen plenty of champions that did not come from the top of the world rankings. My pick ... is not that. I am going with a quite conventional choice in Justin Thomas, who may be the best golfer on the planet. Thomas has professed his love for the course, played well here immediately in his first showing, and he has posted top 10s in three of his last four starts. It would be shocking for Thomas to flame out here and given that he might just be the most reliable player in the world, I’m taking him in what is an event that’s a total crapshoot to predict.

Kyle: Models, sure, whatever — I’m doubling down on nothing but a gut feeling, part because I’m lazy, but part because it seems like the perfect storm. An in-form, confident Frank Molinari at a place like The Players seems like A capital-P-Problem for the rest of the field. He’s always played well here, including of late, he’s now a major champion, and he just won last week. Back-to-back is really, really hard — but this place fits Molinari, who’s the best ballstriker in the world right now, better than Bay Hill. So, why not?