With the 2023 PGA Championship on tap this weekend, a lot of eyes will be on Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY. This year’s second major is about to unfold, so let’s make our PGA Championship predictions.
4 bold predictions for 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club
The 105th PGA Championship is back at Oak Hill Country Club as we predict what the best golfers in the world will accomplish.
After one of the best Masters in recent years, can the PGA Championship follow up with another epic major week? Oak Hill is no stranger to major championships and big golf events, as the East course has six majors on its record and hosted the 1995 Ryder Cup. This year marks the fourth PGA Championship for the venue, making the first return to Rochester, NY, since 2013, when Jason Dufner hoisted the Wanamaker Trophy.
The 156-man field will feature 16 LIV Golf players and 99 of the top 100 players in the world as they look to take on the par 70, 7,394-yard monster. Seven of the par-4s are 450-plus yards, and both par-5 holes are 615 and 623 yards long.
This track will favor the longer hitters, but accuracy is the biggest key to conquering the East course. Oak Hill will have the golfers playing smart to keep it in the clean stuff because if they don’t, the rough will have players questioning their sanity.
Can Jon Rahm win back-to-back majors? Will Scottie Scheffler win his second major? Could we see the golfers challenged by a major championship venue again, or will we see more low scores as we have in recent years?
So many storylines surrounding this event could give the golf world an entertaining week. Even without Tiger Woods in the field, the buzz surrounding Oak Hill and the 105th PGA Championship is hard to resist. Nevertheless, let’s move on to our PGA Championship predictions.
4. 7-under par will win the PGA Championship
Last year, Justin Thomas won the 2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills at 5-under. Phil Mickelson won at Kiawah with a 6-under, and Collin Morikawa took home his first major championship at TPC Harding Park in 2020 with a 6-under score as well.
So the last few PGA Championships have seen winners shoot similar scores. However, at Oak Hill, the winning scores have varied. In its three PGA Championships, the winning score was 10-under in 2013, 4-under in 2003 and 6-under in 1980.
While golf fans have grown accustomed to seeing low scores win championships in recent years, the carnage will be too much this week. The East Course will throw a lot at the players and make them work for it. If the course plays tough throughout the week, 7-under will be what it takes to win.
3. Tony Finau just misses out winning Wanamaker Trophy
Tony Finau is one of the hottest golfers on the PGA Tour right now. He doesn’t have a major championship yet, but Finau has two wins on the season and four in the last 18 months.
In years past, the PGA Championship is an event Finau plays well in, recording three top-10 finishes since his first one in 2015. In 2020 Finau recorded his best finish at a PGA Championship with a T4. His other top 10 finish came the following year at Kiawah, where he went T8.
Finau is long off the tee, which should help considerably. It won’t be enough to win it. However, he will finish in the top 3, if not the runner-up position.
2. LIV Tour golfers flop with none finishing inside top 10
At the first major of the year, three LIV golfers finished inside the top 10, and four finished inside the top 20. However, the rival golf tour won’t have that kind of success at the PGA Championship.
Brooks Koepka and Talor Gooch are playing incredible golf but will struggle with the East Course. Koepka is a two-time PGA Championship winner, going back-to-back in 2017 and 2018.
Mickleson’s impressive top-10 finish at the Masters is noteworthy, but this event is another beast within itself. Oak Hill gave him trouble in 2013 as he finished T72 at +12, so it’s hard to suggest another top 10 finish is in the cards.
The hype leading up to that first major championship provided a lot of unknowns about what the LIV guys would do, and they showed another day of golf doesn’t phase them. This week the PGA Tour players will silence the LIV guys by keeping them out of the top 10. There may be 18 LIV players in the field, but the highest finish will be a T15.
1. Rory McIlroy captures third PGA Championship by five shots
After a disastrous Masters for Rory McIlroy, he’ll redeem himself at Oak Hill to beat the field by five shots. McIlroy played well here before. He shot a 3-under in the tournament to finish T8, missing a chance at going back-to-back.
He won his second PGA Championship the following year, narrowly missing out on a three-peat. Thinking about that proves how good McIlroy is when his game clicks on all cylinders. While some may think his game isn’t where it needs to be after missing the cut at the Players and the Masters, that won’t be an issue at Oak Hill.
He likes this course, and it fits his game. If McIlroy can keep it clean off the tee, he should be able to run away from the field. That mental health break that he took likely got him in the zone to tackle this second major with success. Hopefully, McIlroy can play with the freedom that makes him the special player the golf world knows he is.
