MLB playoff picture: What does Tigers-Red Sox mean for AL playoffs?

Game update: With the Tigers’ 2-1 win over Boston, Detroit has clinched at least a Wild Card spot.

They remain in the running for the AL Central crown, but will need some help.

The 2025 Major League Baseball season enters its final weekend today.

And with three teams battling for two spots in the American League, two teams fighting for the final spot in the National League, and a host of division titles and seedings left to determine, the final weekend of play could be one for the ages.

Arguably the biggest game of the day gets underway at 4:10 p.m. at historic Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox host the Detroit Tigers. Boston clinched a playoff spot in dramatic fashion on Friday night, when Ceddanne Rafaela laced a triple off the wall in center field to bring the winning run home and send Boston to the postseason in walk-off fashion.

But the Red Sox are still uncertain of their seeding.

As for the Tigers, despite looking like a lock for the playoffs earlier this season, with two games left, they are still fighting for their postseason lives.

Let’s dive into the playoff implications of Tigers-Red Sox.

Last night’s dramatic win put the Red Sox into the postseason, and they are going to be one of the bottom two Wild Card teams. If the playoffs began today, the 88-72 Sox would be the No. 5 seed in the AL and would face their bitter rivals, the New York Yankees.

But with the AL East undecided, Boston could end up facing the Toronto Blue Jays, if the Yankees end up winning the East and the Blue Jays settle for the top Wild Card slot.

There is also a scenario where the Red Sox slide down to the final Wild Card spot. If the Tigers and the Cleveland Guardians each win their final two games, that would mean Boston, Detroit, and Cleveland all finish with matching 88-74 records.

The Guardians have already clinched the tiebreaker over Detroit, so in this scenario, Cleveland would be the AL Central champion. Detroit, with two wins over Boston this weekend, would clinch a tiebreaker over the Red Sox, so they would slot in as the #5 seed, dropping Boston to #6.

To avoid that scenario, the Red Sox need to keep winning.

On September 11, Detroit’s odds of winning the AL Central stood at 99.8%.

As the final weekend of the 2025 MLB season begins, those odds are down to just 30.7%.

Detroit can still avoid a collapse for the ages, but they do not control their own destiny in the AL Central. As noted above, the Guardians have already clinched a tiebreaker over the Tigers. With Detroit and Cleveland currently tied with matching 86-74 records, the Tigers need to get some wins and get some help in the form of losses by Cleveland.

Where the Tigers still control their own destiny, however, is in the Wild Card chase. Detroit has a one-game lead over the Houston Astros for a Wild Card spot, and the Tigers have clinched the tiebreaker over Houston already. That means a win today against Boston, or an Astros’ loss to the Los Angeles Angels later tonight, and the Tigers are at least in the playoffs.