The Red Sox will trade Yoenis Cespedes eventually
Cespedes has a new agent and the Red Sox have outfielders aplenty. He’ll have a new home soon.
Elsa
The Red Sox are going to trade Yoenis Cespedes. It's not what they initially wanted to do after sending Jon Lester to the A's for him in July, but that's what's going to end up happening. It's not necessarily a failing that will cause it, either, and you can likely dismiss any rumors about the Red Sox coaching staff disliking him as being the source of a deal, either. Cespedes will be traded for the same reason Lester was dealt: the Sox won't be able to come to an extension they are comfortable with, leaving them with a highly desirable trade chip.
The New York Daily News’ Bill Madden reported this weekend that the Red Sox tried to negotiate a long-term extension with Cespedes earlier this year. Cespedes’ then-agent Adam Katz discussed a deal in the four-to-five year range with Boston, but obviously, as Cespedes only remains signed through 2015, nothing came of those talks. Cespedes will be 29 in 2015, so a four- or five-year deal would have been great for both sides: the Sox would get the remaining years of Cespedes’ prime, and Cespedes would still be young enough coming out of the contract to sign another lengthy, lucrative deal with someone else afterward.
Cespedes wants more for himself, though, and that’s fine too: It’s his right as a ballplayer to build up all the security he can when he can. The dream of another big money contract at 32 or 33 sounds lovely, but what if he ends up hurt between now and then? What if his bat suddenly slows and his value plummets before he can sign on somewhere else? These are reasonable concerns for any player, and it’s implied that Cespedes was considering them when he replaced Katz with Jay Z’s agency, Roc Nation.
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Roc Nation, as you might remember, is the one representing Robinson Cano, that brought him from the Yankees to the Mariners on a 10-year, $240 million contract. Cespedes isn't going to get one of those, but with Roc Nation behind him looking to make yet another major splash to lure clients to them, the chances of something in the six- or seven-year range for over $100 million seems like a realistic goal. That's not something the Red Sox will want to commit to -- they declined to give Lester something similar, bringing Cespedes aboard in the first place -- so the only thing left to do is trade him.
The Red Sox don't necessarily need Cespedes on their team in 2015, anyway, or possibly even beyond then. He's a great player, and even somewhat underrated because his on-base percentages are weak, but he's also an outfielder. The Red Sox are flush with those thanks to the performance of Mookie Betts and the signing of another Roc Nation client in Rusney Castillo. Betts was something of a curiosity less than two years ago, but after an excellent 2013 and an even better 2014 -- in which he trounced pitching in both Double- and Triple-A before batting .291/.368/.444 as a 21-year-old in the majors -- he's suddenly a potential franchise cornerstone. There are questions about just how good he'll end up being, of course -- nothing is guaranteed in the prospect game -- but there is no denying the immense potential Betts has in the Sox outfield and in their future.
Betts and Castillo could make up two-thirds of the Sox outfield for the rest of the decade. (Photo credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
Castillo is maybe not a star, but he has real power, an aggressive but disciplined approach, incredible speed and can play a quality center in the majors. The Cuban import signed a seven-year deal with the Sox that began in 2014, and batted .333/.400/.528 in his limited major-league time before the season ended despite not playing professionally since 2012 because of a failed attempt at escaping Cuba. Like Betts, it’s unclear just how good he’ll be, but the Red Sox had obvious reasons to make his future their future, and he’ll likely be a part of the Opening Day outfield in 2015 regardless of where Cespedes ends up.
Then there's Allen Craig, whom the Sox hope returns to form after an offseason of normal rest -- a year ago, he spent all winter dealing with the fallout from a foot fracture that ruined the end of his 2013 season, and it might have messed with his swing in an off 2014. Remember that in the three years prior to that injury, Craig had a 136 OPS+ and slugged .500 despite a pitcher-friendly home park. Shane Victorino, arguably Boston's best player in 2013, is still under contract for one more year, and Daniel Nava's on-base percentage remains under team control for a few years more. Cespedes might be preferable to any of Craig, a Victorino returning from back surgery, or Nava, but with Betts' and Castillo's potential already in place, concerns about the outfield's performance sans Cespedes are lessened.
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So, the Red Sox don’t necessarily need Cespedes, but someone else will for the same reasons the Sox would have been happy to lock him up for four or five years. Cespedes has a .316 career on-base percentage, but he also has 71 homers and a .201 Isolated Power despite playing about half of his home games in the canyon that is O.co Coliseum the last three years. His power is significant, and in today’s game, a rarity. A right-handed presence in the middle of a lineup with 30-homer potential is something every team could use, so even though he has just the one year left on his deal, the Sox will find a suitor, and likely a worthwhile return.
He could be dealt to someone for the pitching the Red Sox need to rework their rotation: the Mets could use a bat, for one, and are overflowing with young pitching, especially with Matt Harvey returning from Tommy John surgery in 2015. The Reds desperately need bats if they are to be relevant in the NL Central again: they could move one of Mat Latos or Johnny Cueto in a deal that involves more than just Cespedes. The Marlins could decide they need another hitter to pair with Giancarlo Stanton (yes, they have a full outfield, but this is also Cespedes we're talking about), the Mariners could come calling to address their season-ruining offense... possibilities are in place, and when the Red Sox officially put Cespedes on the market, they're going to get some calls.
The Sox have other needs besides the outfield, and Cespedes can get a longer deal elsewhere courtesy of his new, splash-making agents. He’ll be wearing a new uniform before the offseason is over -- maybe even before the winter meetings -- and if both sides play things right, everyone will be happier and better for it. It’s certainly not as simple as extending him would be, but simple isn’t always better, either.
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