Clayton Kershaw’s 29 pitches of doom

Clayton Kershaw, genetic freak and carbon-based wonder, was shelled on Friday. In the seventh inning, with a 6-2 lead, Kershaw allowed five singles and a double -- none of them cheap -- and he left the game with the Dodgers trailing by one. Harold Reynolds claimed loudly and confidently on Fox Sports 1 that the Cardinals were stealing signs. Danny Graves claims to have figured out exactly how Kershaw was tipping his pitches.

Before Kershaw’s season-saving or season-ending start on Tuesday, let’s look at another possibility. Maybe he was just bad?

All of these images are going to show the same thing: Where A.J. Ellis set up, and where the ball actually went.

First pitch: 92-mph fasball

Perfectly placed. It probably should have been a strike, but it was called a ball. An ominous beginning.

Pitch #2: 87-mph slider

Another borderline pitch, another call going against Kershaw. Ellis was looking for a back-foot slider, but Kershaw missed on the outside corner.

Pitch #3: 92-mph fastball

Another set inside, and another miss to location. Spoiler: You’re going to see both a lot. Holliday had a good swing. I’d like to think that if Kershaw were tipping pitches, this one would have gone 450 feet, but considering hitters foul off batting practice pitches every day, it’s not as if Holliday’s foul ball is proof of anything other than a foul ball.

Pitch #4: 92-mph fastball

Every fastball to right-handed hitters is supposed to be in. When we get to poor Pete Kozma, we’ll see why, but for now Kershaw’s having trouble hitting that spot.

Pitch #5: 93-mph fastball

Kershaw finally hits the spot on his third attempt, but he’s behind in the count and Holliday was waiting for it.

Pitch #6: 93-mph fastball

Peralta isn’t exactly Vladimir Guerrero, but if Kershaw is tipping his fastball before this pitch, Peralta screws himself into the ground trying to hit a homer. He was probably looking for a fastball, though, and he held up at the last second.

Pitch #7: 94-mph fastball

Sets up in. Pitch is a meatball. That’s six fastballs so far, with just two going where they’re supposed to.

Pitch #8: 88-mph slider

It’s hard to imagine Molina looking for a slider here, and his lower body was a bit early. But the difference between Kershaw’s slider and fastball was between 3-to-5 mph for most of the inning -- not exactly enough to make hitters look horrible if the slider is in the middle of the plate.

Pitch #9: 94-mph fastball

Perfect pitch. This is the Kershaw that I’m used to watching, unfortunately. What is Adams supposed to do with that pitch, hit it into the stands on the third-base side?

Note: This is the first lefty that Kershaw has had to face in the inning, but Ellis doesn’t move. He sits on the same corner of the plate. The gameplan isn’t to harass hitters inside; it’s to hit that same spot with the fastball and force the hitter into a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t decision.

Pitch #10: 94-mph fastball

Adams was late. Ellis set up outside, but I have no idea if he wanted the ball low or high. The result was great, either way.

Pitch #11: 95-mph fastball

Kershaw’s fastest pitch of the inning, but it wasn’t close, and Adams wasn’t tempted.

Pitch #12: 90-mph slider

Another miss in the middle of the plate, and Adams hit it for a line drive single. Look at how Adams is swinging without his lower body. He was looking fastball, but he could still react to a slider in the middle of the plate, just like Molina. This is the at-bat that convinced me it wasn’t the Cardinals stealing signs from second or Kershaw tipping his pitches with a glove-wiggle. He’s missing in the middle of the danged plate.

Pitch #13: 95-mph fastball

Poor Pete Kozma. He stepped into the box and Kershaw’s everything calmed down. This was one of two thoroughly dominant sequences for Kershaw.

Except it started with a fastball miss. It was a good location miss -- just above the strike zone -- but it’s still away from where Ellis wanted it.

Pitch #14: 93-mph fastball

That’s the pitch Ellis wanted all inning, to both lefties and righties. Kozma probably made a Charlie Brown noise after that pitch. Just perfect.

Pitch #15: 95-mph fastball

For the first time all inning, Ellis asks for the fastball away to a right-hander. He gets it in a perfect spot, and Kozma is absolutely helpless. He can’t get a swing off. At this point, it looks like Kershaw is back in a groove. The Kozma Effect. If you could bottle it, you’d make billions.

Pitch #16: 95-mph curveball

Another big miss in location. Jay was sitting fastball and he just missed. The extra velocity probably saved Kershaw on this one.

Pitch #17: 74-mph curveball

This is the first curveball of the inning, and it’s absolutely gorgeous. Look at how fooled Jay is. Unfortunately, look at how fooled Jerry Meals is, too. It was called a ball, when Jay should have been down 0-2.

Pitch #18: 94-mph fastball

It’s up and away from the target, but still a tough pitch to hit. At no point in the inning, though, did Ellis ask for a fastball in on a lefty. Only once did he ask for a fastball on the first-base side of the plate. If Jay was looking fastball, he had a pretty good idea of which side of the plate it would be on. He put on a nice swing and slapped it for a single.

Taveras got the Pete Kozma treatment, unfortunately. Kershaw hits the spot Ellis asked for perfectly. If he did that all inning, it would have been over two batters ago, at least.

It’s at this point that Tom Verducci starts chastising Taveras for not swinging at the first pitch. Harold Reynolds corrects him, taking every ounce of strength to not yell, “Did you see that damned pitch? It was perfect! What’s he supposed to do with it?”

Pitch #20: 89-mph slider

A perfect slider ahead in the count. Taveras is helpless.

Pitch #21: 89-mph slider

Same pitch, same result. It looked like Taveras was a nincompoop and had never held a bat before, just like Kozma before him. The only problem was they were the only two batters to face the actual Clayton Kershaw.

Pitch #22: 95-mph fastball

Ellis sets up outside, gets the ball outside. It caught a little bit of the plate, but Carpenter couldn’t do anything with it.

Pitch #23: 95-mph fastball

Same pitch, same result. Those were two good fastballs, located well. That’s how Kershaw is supposed to live. Now for the curve or slider ...

Pitch #24: 94-mph fastball

Or fastball even farther off the plate. That’s good, too. Except Kershaw missed again, getting too much of the plate.

Pitch #25: 89-mph slider

There’s the breaking ball, but it’s a waste pitch. Carpenter isn’t tempted.

Pitch #26: 88-mph slider

I haven’t seen every slider Kershaw threw all year, but that has to be one of the five worst. It was supposed to dive below the strike zone, but it sailed way above it. Carpenter didn’t flinch.

Pitch #27: 94-mph fastball

Another fastball to the same location, another miss to the middle of the plate. Carpenter had a good swing. Well, shucks, back to the breaking ball.

Right around here, Reynolds talks about how the Cardinals couldn’t possibly have hit so well with runners in scoring position in 2013 without runners at second stealing signs. Which is a neat theory, except it suggests that the Cardinals were hanging out in the clubhouse a couple weeks ago, and someone said, “Hey, remember when we used to steal signs and hit really well with runners in scoring position?” and the rest of the team said, “Ohhhhh, yeah, that was awesome, we should do that again!” Why would the sign-stealing help them in 2013 and not 2014?

Pitch #28: 89-mph slider

That right here was the other pitch that convinced me there weren’t any shenanigans going on, either with tipping pitches or sign stealing. Carpenter was well in front of this one and looked off-balance, just getting a piece of the ball and dribbling it up the first-base side. He was looking for a fastball, just like the entire Cardinals team seemed to be.

Which makes sense. You’re not going to make a living off Kershaw’s breaking balls.

That will probably be the most hittable pitch Carpenter will see in the playoffs. It might have been the most hittable pitch he’s seen all year. Look at how badly Kershaw missed. That’s a pitch that deserved to be a grand slam. If anything, Kershaw got a little lucky.

It was a mess of factors. Meals blew a couple important calls. Kershaw missed with fastballs and sliders, both. Ellis was predictable, calling for a fastball on the first-base side just once. And throughout it all, Kershaw threw just one measly curveball. It was beautiful and called a ball.

The big question is this: Why was Kershaw missing so badly? If it’s a mechanical hiccup that would have corrected itself the following inning, well, there’s nothing to do about that. But if Kershaw was getting tired and he just couldn’t repeat his delivery, that’s a bad omen considering he’s pitching on three day’s rest for Game 4.

The Dodgers are hoping it was one of those things. The Cardinals are hoping that Kershaw’s worn out after a long season (that started with him on the disabled list after the start in Australia, remember.) Either way, neither team is worried about glove-jostling and sign-stealing. At the end of the chase, we pull off the mask, and it was Old Man Location, all along. He would have gotten away with it, too, if it weren’t for the meddling Cardinals looking for pitches in the middle of the plate.