Last year, 13 free agents received qualifying offers from their respective teams. Unsurprisingly, all 13 rejected the offers and chose to enter the market tied to draft pick compensation. This proved disappointing for four of the 13: Ervin Santana went into spring training without a team, but got a one-year deal equivalent to that qualifying offer from the Braves when their staff was hit with multiple elbow injuries. Nelson Cruz, a poor defensive outfielder and one-dimensional power hitter coming off a PED suspension, saw his market crater and was forced to take a one-year, $8 million offer from the Orioles. Shortstop Stephen Drew and first baseman/designated hitter Kendrys Morales didn't receive offers until well into the season, signing prorated deals in May and June, respectively. The long layoff seemed to take a significant toll on them, and both struggled mightily.
Which player will be the next to regret turning down a qualifying offer?
Once again, every free agent given a qualifying offer rejected it. Will there be another Stephen Drew or Kendrys Morales in this year’s crop?
You might think, then, that this year’s crop of free agents would have taken notice and behaved a little more cautiously. Of course, they did not, as all 12 (including both Santana and Cruz again) rejected the $15.2 million, one-year qualifying deals. All 34 free agents across three seasons who have received a qualifying offer have rejected it. This demonstrates two things: First, ballplayers and their agents are exceptionally confident in themselves and welcome some risk when faced with the chance of a huge payday. Second, major league teams are far too timid in handing out these qualifying offers, afraid they’ll get stuck with a high salary for a single year that might compromise their budgets.
But even Michael Cuddyer, considered the most questionable player to receive a qualifying offer this year, signed a two-year deal with the Mets before the deadline to reject the Rockies' offer, handing Colorado a free pick in next year's amateur draft. Now, with 11 of these players still on the market, the question is whether any of them will suffer the same fate as Drew, Morales, Cruz and Santana last year. Who will be the poster child for unrealistic expectations and hubris when the music stops, spring training rolls around and they're left without a chair?
David Robertson, RP, New York Yankees
David Robertson (Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports). After three straight years as an unbelievable setup man, Robertson is entering the market as a bona fide closer after saving 39 of 44 opportunities as Mariano Rivera's heir. Those gaudy save numbers and a bump in strikeouts hid that Robertson struggled more than usual last year, with a few extra walks and homers allowed. It was probably nothing more than a blip, as his velocity was fine, but how many teams out there are going to be willing to give up a draft pick and pay Jonathan Papelbon money for a closer who wasn't even worth more than two wins last year? Okay, yes, that sounds like something the Phillies would do, but then they already have Papelbon, don't they?
So far, Rafael Soriano is the only other closer to get tagged with a qualifying offer, and while he saved 75 games in two years for the Nationals, he finished 2014 out of that role and Washington refused to pick up his option. The Yankees could still re-sign Robertson, especially if they are worried they won't get compensation for him, and given their resources are probably the most likely landing spot. Still, it wouldn't be surprising if he were forced to take a one-year deal with a team that either had a protected first-round pick, or who had signed another free agent tied to compensation -- if there's one place teams might be conservative, it's in offering a closer a multi-year deal.
Melky Cabrera, LF, Toronto Blue Jays
With the decline of offense in baseball, the switch-hitting Melky Cabrera is the nouveau Jose Cruz Sr., who was criminally underappreciated in his career with the Houston Astros in the 1970s and 1980s. That said, Cabrera is a poor defender in a league that is increasingly interested in strong outfield defense, and has tested positive for PEDs twice in the past. As they did two years ago, when he was coming off of a career year and a suspension with the Giants, clubs might not view Cabrera as a wise long-term investment, afraid that they'll wind up a player short when it matters most. The Blue Jays stole him for two years, $16 million. If his reputation among GMs hasn't improved, he may have to take a similar below-market deal to avoid sitting out for a while.
Qualifying Offers
Francisco Liriano, Starting Pitcher, Pittsburgh Pirates
With a history of arm problems and a spotty track record over the long term, Liriano seems like the kind of guy who would leap at a guaranteed $15 million. Despite his effectiveness, there’s a feeling of impending doom surrounding the incredibly talented Liriano, as though there’s another shoe out there prepared to drop and end his career as we know it. That said, he’s bounced back so strong with the Pirates, trusting his slider and changeup far more while throwing his fastball less. He’s also 31 now, and this may be his last chance at a Matt Garza-esque contract, so his rejection of the offer makes sense. Still, I would be incredibly wary about sacrificing my future for a pitcher who might not be available to help me in the present.
Francisco Liriano ( Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports).
Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana, Outfielder and Starting Pitcher, Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves
This is amazing. I mean, you’d expect the guys who have been through this compensation system, and who have suffered from its effects, to have learned from the experience. Yet, here we are.
Cruz’s rejection makes sense. He’s coming off of a 40-home run season in Baltimore, where he seems to have put the whiff of PED use behind him and proved he can hit clean. At 34, this is also probably his last chance at a significant multi-year deal, though I can’t imagine anyone thinking he has a repeat performance in him.
Santana, on the other hand, followed up a strong 2013 with a middling 2014. Certainly he at least got no better, especially when you factor in all the extra pitchers he got to face. He also turned a year older, as did we all. There’s no reason to believe that Santana is any more in line for a big payday this offseason than he was last year. If anything, he’s even less likely to get a multi-year offer. Meanwhile, at 32 next season, he’s unlikely to pitch badly enough to see his market value erode significantly. Until he gets to the point where an overly cautious club refuses to offer him the qualifying deal and is freed, Santana seems like exactly the kind of respectable, durable and otherwise unremarkable player who should just keep taking these incredibly lucrative one-year deals for as long as they’re offered. At least then he’d know he’ll have a job when the new year begins.
