Searching for an American League Cy Young Award tiebreaker

Before we get into a discussion about the American League Cy Young, let us note that what Chris Sale does in U.S. Cellular Field is underrated. Baseball-Reference has it as a neutral park, but it’s certainly one of the best parks for home runs in baseball. He just might be the best pitcher in baseball, much less the American League, but he just didn’t throw enough innings. The eight starts he didn’t make had to go to someone like Andre Rienzo, who didn’t pitch well because he is a sculptor or muralist.

No, the Cy Young is almost certainly a two-man race between Corey Kluber and Felix Hernandez. Folks have been debating the merits of both for weeks, and they’ll debate the eventual decision for years. If there were ever a year to bust out the Mike Cuellar/Denny McLain machine and cut the award in half, this is it. As is, we have to pick one. That means we’re looking for tiebreakers.

Leonard Nimoy voice: This is the search for tiebreakers.

Hernandez threw 236 innings. Kluber threw 235⅔. Hernandez struck out 248 and walked 46. Kluber struck out 269 and walked 51. Hernandez led the league in ERA. Kluber led the league in FIP. They will be stupid tiebreakers. That’s how close this race is. Stupid tiebreakers are all we have. Here we go.

Okay, not that stupid. But, quick, which letter comes first, H or K? Now you’re singing a song for children, you dummy. In this tiebreaker, Felix Hernandez wins, which means this tiebreaker is just as good as any, considering that Hernandez is quite worthy of the award.

Ugh. I mean, I like WAR. Use it all the time. I’m partial to the Baseball-Reference version because it’s easy to search for things with Play Index, but both versions have their place. I’m still uneasy about using it to determine which pitcher was better when the numbers are this close:

Baseball-Reference WAR
Kluber: 7.4
Hernandez: 6.8

FanGraphs WAR
Kluber: 7.3
Hernandez: 6.2

The extra win for FanGraphs is a big deal. It’s also an attempt to separate pitching and defense, which is exceptionally tricky. The more and more innings we have in a sample, the more likely it is for ERA to outperform FIP in terms of predictive powers. In a sample of 236 innings, ERA and FIP are about dead even. Which means that Kluber might have pitched much better than Hernandez, unless he didn’t.

As for the .6 difference in the Baseball-Reference WAR, get outta here. WAR is great for distilling everything into a single number that’s park-, era-, and league-adjusted. But if you use it as if it’s a tool precise enough to cut diamonds, you deserve all the one-sentence-paragraph columns that 60-year-old columnists can throw at you.

This is a desperation tiebreaker, tough, so we’re looking for whatever edge we can get. At least both systems agree Kluber was incrementally better. As a blunt object to beat the opposing side into submission, WAR shouldn’t be used. As something to throw on the tiebreaker pile, why not? Throw it on. It’s Kluber, if barely.

Oh, welcome back, 60-year-old columnists. Apologies for besmirching your honor up there. This category is for you.

I’ve shamefully admitted liking pitcher wins in the past, but only as a curiosity that needs to be supplemented with other statistics. Still, here you go: Kluber led the league with 18 wins, and Hernandez had 15.

That tells me a few things. One, that the Indians hit better than the Mariners. Two, that it’s possible Hernandez had worse luck with his bullpen. Three, it ... no, that pretty much covers it. But when you strip away the statistic and just use each team’s record when their respective ace was pitching, both the Mariners and Indians were 22-12. Team wins don’t help at all, even if you’re interested in them. And pitching wins are a lousy tiebreaker, based on things out of the pitcher’s control.

Still, it’s Kluber here, too. For what that’s worth. Which is very, very, very little.

This is a tiebreaker that exists in quantum superposition. Hernandez has a Cy Young. Kluber does not. Do you give the tiebreaker to Kluber because you’re interested in spreading the wealth around? Or do you give it to Hernandez because you’re used to him being a fiery ace of the underworld, whereas you just got used to Kluber this year? I don’t think there’s a wrong answer, which is the theme of this award, apparently. I lean toward the new blood, if ever so slightly.

On the other hand, a second Cy Young might be something a Hall of Fame voter needs to send him over the edge on Hernandez, whereas Kluber probably isn’t likely to have that kind of career.

On the other other hand, maybe this is the closest Kluber will ever get to glory. Hernandez has an award and is about 60 percent of the way down a Hall of Fame path. Just give it to the new guy.

I don’t know. I’m confused.

I’ll go with Kluber here, though.

I FOUND ONE. I FOUND A REAL TIEBREAKER THAT MIGHT ACTUALLY MAKE SENSE.

Kluber had three complete games and one shutout this year.

Hernandez had none.

This would be the second time in a row that the AL Cy Young winner didn’t throw a complete game. That kind of bugs me. It shouldn’t. It’s not like I grumble when a pitcher on my favorite team throws eight outstanding innings, which is something Hernandez did 10 times this season. And what does a two-out, ninth-inning double from Albert Pujols mean when comparing Hernandez to Kluber? It’s a non-sequitur. If Pujols had a poor at-bat and waved at three pitches, would Hernandez magically be better? Not really.

Still, it bugs me. This isn’t a tiebreaker about value. It’s a tiebreaker about aesthetics.

All told, when you add the arbitrary tiebreakers up, it’s a battle of raw ERA and a third of an inning edge (Hernandez) vs. WAR, FIP, pitcher wins, complete games, shutouts, and strikeouts. I care about each of those so very little. When you keep tossing them on the scale, though, it moves, ever so slightly.

Corey Kluber should be the 2014 American League Cy Young winner, by the teensiest of margins, even if we have little idea of who he is or how he got here.