Who will end their playoff drought in 2014?
The Royals haven’t made the playoffs since before Bo Jackson debuted. The Blue Jays haven’t made the playoffs since their back-to-back championships. Is this the year their fortunes change?


The 2012 Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs as one of the American League's two wild cards, ending a 15-year stretch without postseason play. While they would lose to the Yankees in the American League Division Series, they were victorious in the Wild Card round against the Rangers, and had brought hope back to a city that had finished higher than fourth place in the AL East just once in those 15 playoff-less campaigns.
In 2013, the Pittsburgh Pirates shed an even lengthier hapless streak by securing one of the National League's wild cards. They too didn't get all that far in their postseason run, falling to the eventual National League Champion Cardinals, but ending both their 20-year stretch of losing seasons and 20-year playoff drought with one season made up for the end to the year.
These playoff appearances had meaning for fan bases that had been beaten down emotionally to the point where failure seemed to be their teams' resting state. While neither the O's nor Bucs took home a World Series title, snapping their respective droughts signaled that things could be different, and that success was not as far away as it once seemed. The Orioles didn't make a repeat appearance in the 2013 postseason, but they did post a winning record, and are poised to do the same in this upcoming season, and at a time when they have high-quality prospects on the way to improve the club in both the present and future. The Pirates are in a position where they could make it to October baseball once more, and have even more to look forward to in terms of prospects and the future. Consider their drought-snapping playoff appearances to be the start of a new chapter for each organization, a time for them to turn away from decades filled with failure in order to focus on what was once thought false: a successful, winning future.
They’ve had their moment already, at least for our purposes. Even though the Pirates and Orioles ended their fruitless chases, at the least resetting the clock and at best taking the first step towards a bright future, there remain far too many organizations who have missed the playoffs for far more than just a few seasons. There are four teams who haven’t entered postseason play for at least 10 years now, and another five who haven’t been to October for a half-decade.
That second group is full of teams who have been disappointing, such as the Mets and White Sox. At least those teams have had semi-recent success, however, with the White Sox winning the 2005 World Series and the Mets making it to three championship series and one World Series between 1999 and 2006. The Astros remain terrible, but they've got a clear plan and are rebuilding, and the Padres have mostly been beset by injuries: they have a talented core and farm system, and should be back in this thing once bad luck finishes conspiring against them. The real tragedy for these clubs will come if their recent lack of success becomes an organizational norm instead of a temporary state.
The Cubs have also been away from the playoffs for five years, but no single playoff appearance is going to heal what ails that fan base. You know, speaking of organizational norms and all.
It's the first group we're most concerned with, especially since, with one exception -- the Marlins -- they're also the teams trying hardest in the present to end said droughts. The Mariners, who haven't been to the postseason since Ichiro Suzuki's rookie season in 2001, added Robinson Cano and a slew of complementary pieces in the hopes of changing that. The Blue Jays haven't seen October playoff baseball since 1993, when they won their second-straight World Series, but they still have much of last winter's acquisitions in place, and a chance of making good on their rebuild the second time around.
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Then there are the Royals. Their last trip to the postseason came in 1985, when they defeated the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games. In case the idea of 28 playoff-less years doesn't hit you with the appropriate impact, consider that six of the Royals' projected starting nine for 2014 hadn't even been born the last time Kansas City played a meaningful October game: catcher Salvador Perez (born 1990), first baseman Eric Hosmer (1989), third baseman Mike Moustakas (1988), shortstop Alcides Escobar (1986), center fielder Lorenzo Cain (1986), and designated hitter Billy Butler (1986) all came into this world after Bret Saberhagen and George Brett got things done against the Cards. Neither was rookie starter Yordano Ventura, first line of defense Danny Duffy, and basically anyone of merit in the bullpen.
That same depressing factoid is also to the Royals' benefit in 2014, however: that's a club loaded with peak-years talent, one that posted an 86-76 record in 2013 despite an offense that took the entire month of May off and featured a Chris Getz-shaped hole at second and yet another chance for Jeff Francoeur in right for far too long. With the additions they've made to the offense, there is reason to believe a legitimate, competitive year is in the works in Kansas City. They dealt from their bullpen strength to bring in right fielder Norichika Aoki from the Brewers, and opened up their wallets to sign Omar Infante for four years to man the keystone.
Aoki’s bat isn’t his strongest point, as his fantastic glove is the main attraction. Royals right fielders were so terrible in 2013, however -- they collectively hit like shortstops at one of the most offense-heavy positions on the diamond -- that even Aoki’s average-ish bat is a significant upgrade, and that’s without bringing up his superior glove. The same goes for Infante at second: if he’s around his three-year averages, in which he produced a 97 OPS+, he’ll be light years ahead of Getz and Co., who batted .243/.296/.304 as a group in 2013.
There are still question marks on the roster, mostly in the rotation. Ventura is reportedly good to go for 200 innings, but the quality of those innings is in question. If he hits the ground running, the Royals will have found their Ervin Santana replacement. If it takes time for him to acclimate to the major-league environment, following his brief stint in the upper minors last year, then the Royals' rotation could be in trouble after James Shields and Jeremy Guthrie.
Free-agent acquisition Jason Vargas could be around the league average, something the Royals sorely missed in the back-end of their rotation in 2013. Like with fifth starter Bruce Chen, however, he has very little wiggle room between being average and being a drag on the rotation. Danny Duffy could step in for Chen if he's ineffective, and might even do a better job of things, but Vargas just signed a four-year deal and isn't going anywhere this summer.
The pieces are here for a playoff run, thanks to the collection of peak-years youth, hole-plugging offseason acquisitions, a young, strong bullpen, and a rotation that features Shields, Guthrie, Ventura, and what the Royals hope are two good enough arms in the back. They could easily make it 29 years without a postseason berth by year’s end, but 2014 represents the best chance they’ve had in decades to end that futile streak. With Shields a free agent at season’s end, that’s both an uplifting and mildly depressing thought for Royals’ fans.
The Mariners are the longest shot among realistic contenders to win the AL West, but they have as good a chance as anyone in the division to take home a wild card. Robinson Cano is the jewel of their winter, as he's one of the greatest hitters in the game and a quality defender at second. Their secondary additions are the questions, as both Logan Morrison and Corey Hart are players looking to bounce back from injury, and in Morrison's case, poor performance. They're loaded with talented youth, though, thanks to the presence of third baseman Kyle Seager, shortstop Brad Miller, first baseman Justin Smoak -- who might finally be figuring things out at the plate -- and whatever they end up converting Nick Franklin into through trade.
The rotation features one of the game's best in Felix Hernandez, as well as Hisashi Iwakuma, who quietly finished third in the AL Cy Young ballot in 2013 by throwing 219 innings and striking out 4.4 times as many batters as he walked. One of the game's top pitching prospects, Tajiuan Walker, will join the rotation full-time, and while he's not as highly touted, James Paxton should also get an extended look.
Both Walker and Iwakuma need to prove themselves healthy, though, much like Morrison and Hart. If they’re all physically sound and they all play up to their abilities, the Mariners are going to be in this thing all year long. If Walker and Paxton both struggle in their first extended big-league stints, though, and the lineup doesn’t give Cano the support it needs to either through the young players or the rebound candidates, it’ll be evident early on that 2014 is nothing but the 13th-straight season without a postseason appearance.
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The Blue Jays are the longest shot of this trio, since they're in the American League East and have little in the way of depth and backup plans. The team they're putting on the field has a chance to be impressive, as it features sluggers like Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, all-around highlight reels like Jose Reyes and Colby Rasmus, and promising young players like Brett Lawrie. Second base and catcher, two of the Jays' most problematic positions in 2013, have been given a measure of competence by Ryan Goins and Dioner Navarro, respectively. The rotation once again features R.A. Dickey, who was his old self in the second half of the year, as well as the seemingly ageless and average Mark Buehrle.
It's the rest of the roster that's problematic. Brandon Morrow is the question mark he's always been, as he's never been both durable and productive at the same time. Some combination of two arms needs to succeed at the back-end of the rotation, where Drew Hutchison, J.A. Happ, Dustin McGowan, Esmil Rogers, and more are fighting to stick. If top pitching prospect Marcus Stroman joins the rotation, the Blue Jays will need him to provide the mid-rotation innings they just might not be able to get out of anyone else vying for them. The lineup once again lacks viable alternatives almost everywhere should an injury occur, unless it's a position Maicer Izturis can slot in at. Considering his poor 2013, that might not be a good thing, either.
If they have as much good luck as they did bad a year ago, they could end their postseason drought at 20, much as the Pirates did last fall. That’s an absurd amount of luck, though, so while we might be underselling their chances a bit overall, they still aren’t all that great.
The Royals represent the top chance to end their postseason-less streak, thanks to the weakest divisional competition of the bunch combined the most upside in their lineup and rotation. Even they won’t have it easy in 2014, though, meaning we might not see any of these streaks of significant length come to an end. It was easy to think that about the Orioles and Pirates before they managed the feat, however, so as always, it’s just best to remember that baseball kind of hates you and your predictions and will do what it wants when it wants to. Hopefully, the baseball gods notice they’ve been unfairly stacking the deck against these three organizations -- or hey, at least one of them -- for just a little too long.
















