Let’s predict Bryce Harper’s career

Bryce Harper was designed in a laboratory setting by his agent to break free agency. There will be no extension. There will be no hometown discount. There will only be a trail of blood-soaked $100 bills at the 2018 Winter Meetings. It might be the Yankees who get to watch him for a decade. It might still be the Nationals, who will certainly plan accordingly. It might be the Dodgers or the Red Sox or the Tigers or .... They’ll all line up to pay Bryce Harper. It’s been the plan all along.

The only thing missing from this scenario was Harper breaking out and becoming one of the best players in baseball. That’s a minor detail, I suppose. Since coming into the league, Harper has been excellent, making two All-Star teams, but he hasn’t been excellent. He hasn’t been the perennial MVP candidate we’ve been expecting since he was 15.

I think we’ve reached that tipping point.

Don’t read too much into the three-homer game, although if you’re looking for a quick bat, that video might highlight the quickest in the majors. Don’t read too much into early season stats, as there’s always an extended slump around the corner for every player. Just read the player. Read the swing, the obvious talent. And don’t forget to read the birthday. He’s so young. So good.

Our job today is to put a prediction in stone, to use this moment in time, when we’re drunk on the highlights from a single game, to look 15 years down the road and predict the career that Harper will have. These predictions are binding and will follow you around the Internet for the rest of your life. Pick just how well (or how poorly) Harper’s career will progress. Choose from one of the following:

Alternate category: The Hank Blalock. In which a preternaturally young and talented player stalls because of injuries or no good reason at all. This is the choice of haters, and you might be a card-carrying member of that particular club. You don’t like Harper’s stupid hair. You don’t like his stupid eye black. You don’t like his general insouciance.

You’re willing to go against logic and predict doom and a short career for Harper. You should really talk to someone about all this festering hate, but I’m not the boss of you. At least you’re taking it out on baseball players you’ll never meet.

Moments in the sun. A couple excellent seasons. Enough accrued time in the majors to get veteran status. But nothing that ever lives up to the hype. This is the spot for the people who think Harper is overrated.

The scary part is that this might be where the majority of baseball fans land. Every time I write about Harper, it leads to comments, emails and tweets about him being the most overrated player in baseball. Oh, goodness, the comments and hot takes. They’ll be here, too, if we’re lucky. It’s not just us normals who have these hot takes, either.

Who is the most overrated player in MLB?

Bryce Harper - 41 percent

ESPN asked 117 major leaguers to answer that question anonymously. Almost half of them said Harper was overrated. Maybe I’m the dummy here. Maybe he really will fade away and not get a single Hall of Fame vote. It’s happened before.

When Powell was Harper’s age, he had his huge breakout season, hitting 39 homers while showing off a flashy batting average and OBP. He would make four All-Star teams and win an MVP, playing 17 seasons. He also fell off the Hall of Fame ballot after one year. He was excellent for a while, and he’s still popular with Orioles fans, but he wasn’t an all-time great.

If you’re a rational sort, this is probably where you should hang out. It’s so hard to make the Hall of Fame. The path to the Hall of Fame is like a level of Paperboy. Hamstrings are random breakdancers. Knees are the little jerks on Big Wheels. Slowing reflexes are the sentient lawnmowers. Almost everyone crashes into something at one point.

There’s no shame in having the Boog Powell career. It’s better than the careers of almost everyone who’s ever played the game.

This is just a notch above the previous category, and it’s meant to represent a career that’s just good enough to get into the Hall of Fame. If there are inner circles of the Hall, Cepeda is in the outer circle on the other side of the outer circle. He’s in the lobby, perhaps. But that’s okay. He’s still a Hall of Famer, still a legend.

In this scenario, Harper plays a long time and hits about 300 or 400 home runs. Again, this is still an optimistic prediction for Harper, just because it’s still an optimistic prediction for anyone.

Pretend A-Rod didn’t use any performance-enhancing drugs. Pretend he was normal and gave boring post-game quotes, before going home to watch the TV and fall asleep. Pretend there’s absolutely nothing controversial about him. Now look at his stats. He’s an inner-circle Hall of Famer, one of the best players ever.

You can put Frank Robinson here if you can’t get over those icky parts, maybe Jimmie Foxx. In this scenario, Harper plays well for an extraordinarily long time, and he threatens milestones and records along the way.

Before you vote, don’t forget that if Harper hits against Daniel Norris when the Nationals play the Blue Jays in June, it will be the first time Harper has ever faced a pitcher younger than him in his professional career. Don’t underestimate just how young he is, and just how much time he has to improve.

Harper is a player who will hit free agency at an age when most prospects are settling in. Just wait and see what happens when you mix a player like that with Scott Boras.

Good gravy. Not literally. That’s not what I ... look, the plan has been for Harper to make hundreds and hundreds of millions, but that plan was based on him turning into an excellent player. The early returns on 2015 suggest that it’s happening. Now you get to predict his career.

Give me the A-Rod. Give me the inner circle guy. It’s bold, it’s oblivious, it’s probably dumb, and it’s definitely too soon. But when I watch Bryce Harper, I see a player with near limitless talent, someone we’re already taking for granted, even if he hasn’t done that much yet. Don’t let the existence of Mike Trout influence how you evaluate the start of Harper’s career. Harper has a chance to be one of the best players in baseball history, and it’s a better chance than we’ll see from another prospect for a while. If you’re smart, you’ll pick the Boog Powell. But I’ve spent a good chunk of my career actively avoiding the smart opinions, so there’s no reason to change directions now ...

In the meantime, watch those three homers again. With any luck, that will be one of the earliest highlights of a player we’ll enjoy watching for a long, long time. Unless Harper signs with the Dodgers, that is. I wouldn’t enjoy that so much.

Oh, god, he’s going to sign with the Dodgers, isn’t he?

Forget all that. Give me the Jefferies. GIVE ME THE JEFFERIES, QUICK. Over-rated clap clap clapclapclap. Over-rated clap clap clapclapclap ...