On paper, there’s little to suggest that Virginia stands much of a chance against Vanderbilt in the national championship series. The Commodores have a significant lead in nearly every meaningful statistic, they’re loaded down with top-shelf MLB draft talent and they’re deeper and better rested on the mound.
College World Series 2015, Virginia vs. Vanderbilt: Time, TV schedule and live stream
The star-laden Vandy team is the heavy favorite to repeat as champs, but the Wahoos have been defying the odds all postseason.
Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
But anybody still betting against Brian O’Connor’s club at this point is already deep in debt.
Nothing about Virginia’s improbable run back to the College World Series finals makes sense. This is a squad that played the bulk of the regular season without its ace pitcher and top two hitters, and entered the final weekend on the cusp of being left out of the ACC Tournament, never mind the NCAA. But they swept North Carolina to punch their ticket to both, then, as a two-seed, fought through a regional on the West Coast. They needed late-inning rallies to win both of their super regional games against Maryland, then beat national title favorite Florida twice in Omaha to reach the finals.
Virginia couldn’t beat Vandy in the finals last year as a favorite, so perhaps they can do it as an underdog. Just how much of an underdog are they? Check these season stats.
(National rank in parentheses)
| Virginia | Vanderbilt | |
|---|---|---|
| AVG | .273 (150) | .292 (50) |
| SLG | .376 (172) | .462 (11) |
| OBP | .359 (140) | .382 (33) |
| HR | 34 (106) | 69 (5) |
| SB | 44 (191) | 106 (10) |
| Runs per game | 5.4 (143) | 6.8 (25) |
| ERA | 3.54 (59) | 2.89 (9) |
| WHIP | 1.32 (63) | .123 (23) |
| Field % | .970 (97) | .978 (10) |
In fairness, Virginia is actually outhitting Vandy in Omaha, but there’s no question that the Dores are the more talented team. Vandy had six players drafted in the first six rounds, including No. 1 overall Dansby Swanson. Five of their total eight players drafted are pitchers, which is where they really hold an advantage in the championship series. No. 8 overall pick Carson Fulmer takes the mound in Game 1.
Virginia will throw sophomore Connor Jones on Monday, but question marks abound after that. Top option Brandon Waddell threw 87 pitches against Florida on Saturday, so he’s unavailable. Nathan Kirby, the staff ace who missed nine weeks with a muscle sprain, looked rusty in his return last week and its unclear whether he has the stamina to come back on short rest. The most likely option in Game 2 may be reliever Josh Sborz, but moving him to the starting role hurts the bullpen.
But O’Connor has managed to piece this staff together for this long, so there’s no reason to start doubting him now.
How to watch
First pitch: 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Online: WatchESPN.com
See More:
