The Blue Jays sure are in first place all of a sudden

The Blue Jays are the new favorites to win the World Series, according to Bovada.

I remember the trade deadline like it was two weeks ago. The day before the Blue Jays made their huge trade for David Price, to complement their even huger trade for Troy Tulowitzki, they were .500 and seven games back in the AL East. They were as close to the Red Sox and the worst record in the American League as they were to the Yankees. And now they’re the betting favorites for the World Series. I had to lie down after writing those last three sentences and put a giant bag of ice on my head.

Ah, but Vegas odds are different than real life odds. The folks with the betting lines aren’t shoving ZiPS and PECOTA into a blender and coming back with what will happen. They’re taking a little bit of that, and they’re combining it with where people are putting their money. And right now, people want a piece of the Blue Jays. They’re making bets. They’re buying tickets.

The Blue Jays are so damned hot right now, and your team is sitting there, all stupid and not as hot. You want to know how your team can be this good. How can your team be the hottest in the land, the team putting off spend-your-gambling-money-on-us vibes?

We have a guide for that.

So you want to be the next Blue Jays? Here’s how to go from .500 and six games back to first place in two weeks:

The Blue Jays didn’t just give up a pile of excellent young pitchers to get a rental in Price, they also took on the substantial commitment of Tulowitzki. Giving up Jose Reyes helped minimize that commitment, but it was still a move that indicated the Blue Jays were willing to sacrifice the future for the present. Their willingness to take the risks energized the team, which energized the fans, which in turn energized the team, which in turn energized the fans and now we’re watching a big loop of positive energy that the Blue Jays are shooting out of their fingers like Emperor Palpatine to melt opposing pitchers.

So, the first step is to take some risks, get the stars when you need to and fire those fans up.

Except ... wait a sec, that doesn’t always work. The Dodgers were supposed to be the ones shooting positive energy out of various orifices when they traded for Hanley Ramirez and Adrian Gonzalez in the same month in 2012. In Gonzalez’s first game, he hit a three-run homer and Dodger Stadium shook. Then they watched their rivals win the division and the World Series on the back of Marco freaking Scutaro.

The Giants, for their part, will always regret giving up Zack Wheeler for Carlos Beltran, who immediately got hurt. They might regret giving up Keury Mella for Mike Leake, who immediately got hurt. The Phillies still regret dealing for Hunter Pence in 2011, the Indians wish they had used their prospects on a non-Ubaldo in that same deadline. For every CC Sabathia trade that works out even better than it’s supposed to, there are dozens of whopper trades that provided teams with negative, limited or simply fair value.

So, sorry, 2017 White Sox, who will think that trading for Albert Pujols is the same thing as trading for Tulowitzki, and that the fans will respond the same. It doesn’t work like that. At least, it’s not automatic. The fans respond to big trades, but they respond to winning even more. The winning comes from the big trades, unless it doesn’t.

Remember the Royals from last year. They went on a similar run, devouring everything in their path, rising from postseason afterthoughts to contenders with winning streak after winning streak. The fans were absolutely jazzed, just completely fired up. They were finally convinced that baseball is fun in Kans...

Yeah, that, exactly. What was the big move they made? Trading Danny Valencia for Liam Hendricks. They probably had to pull the “LIAM HEND-TIX” season ticket promotion after he appeared in just six games. But the point is that winning makes the fans excited. It takes a three-game losing streak after the deadline to fritter away the goodwill from an active deadline.

Also, note that Liam Hendricks is apparently Bruce Sutter for the Blue Jays now.

So, the first step if you want to build a winning team at the deadline is to make sure your team wins.

The Blue Jays, by runs scored and allowed, were probably one of the best teams in baseball even before they made their trades. Looking at runs scored and allowed works a lot better than just looking at a team’s record to figure out just how good they are.

Considering how well they were scoring and preventing runs, the Blue Jays were convinced that they didn’t just have a good team, but one of the best teams. That confidence allowed them to overlook how far back they were in the East and Wild Card races. So, if you’re looking to replicate what the Blue Jays have done in the last two weeks, trust in the Pythagorean record.

Except ... wait a sec, that doesn’t always work. If the A’s trusted in their Pythagorean record, they would have been buyers at the deadline. “Don’t mind us, we should really be 12 games over .500.” If the A’s fortunes were truly tethered to their Pythagorean record, they would have won the AL West by 10 games last year. Expecting the luck to even out is Gambler’s Fallacy, and even if the Blue Jays were a .600 team according to their expected record, they were going to need to play even better than that if they were going to catch the Yankees.

They were going to need to win 13 out of 14 games while the Yankees won just 4-of-13, in other words.

So, the second step if you want your team to be the Blue Jays is to look at what their record should be, and then assume they’ll be much, much better in a perfectly timed stretch? I guess?

Did you know the Blue Jays haven’t lost a game started by Tulowitzki? Not a one. They sat him for a night, and they lost, so they’ve learned their lesson. Except he isn’t a magic talisman. He’s hitting .231/.355/.442 in his 14 games, which is good -- great for a shortstop, really -- but it’s not like he’s carrying the team. Price has made two brilliant starts, but they came in games in which the Blue Jays didn’t have a ton of trouble scoring. They might have won those games with Kyle Kendrick pitching.

You want your team to be the Blue Jays? Here’s the right way to look at it: It’s the same thing as wanting your team’s ace to throw a no-hitter. You get the best pitcher. You put the best fielders in place behind him. You build the team’s confidence by building the best roster possible. And you cross your fingers after that.

There’s no lesson of the 2015 Blue Jays, other than “get the best players, hope for the best.” After the deadline, it looked like the Blue Jays had one of the better, if not the best, rosters in the American League. That was great and all, but then they needed a sprinkle of good timing and good fortune. They got exactly that, and even more.

Did you know that there are some people who find it hard to enjoy no-hitters because they’re usually too dependent on luck? There’s always a hard-hit out, always a spectacular play, always a wide strike zone, always a grounder right to the shortstop instead of just through the hole and there are fans who find it hard to give full credit for the accomplishment because of that.

Meanwhile, the people who just enjoyed the no-hitter can look back and think, “Man, what a great no-hitter! That actually happened!”

If we took the new Blue Jays back to July 29 and had them play their last 14 games again, I’ll bet they don’t finish 13-1. They might play well -- really well, enough to enjoy a 10-4 stretch, even -- but they won’t finish 13-1 every time. Of course, there’s probably a 14-0 permutation mixed in there, too. Just like how if you take Hisashi Iwakuma back to the start of Wednesday’s game and start over, the Orioles probably get a hit or six.

That doesn’t take away from what the Blue Jays, or Iwakuma, have done. It happened, and it was glorious. Just don’t read into it, other than (talent + timing = the most powerful force in the baseball universe). There doesn’t have to be a lesson. There doesn’t have to be a template.

Get good players. Hope for the best. It’s the secret of the no-hitter, and it’s the secret of the Blue Jays. You can appreciate the heck out of it. Just don’t plan your roster around it.

★★★

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