If the MLB trade deadline were moved to Aug. 31, here’s what every American League team would have done

Back in July, I wrote about how moving the trade deadline to August was a mistake. The first argument was that teams wouldn’t pay as much for a four-, five- or six-week rental, hurting the selling teams. The second argument was that allowing the teams that just slipped out of the race to be on even footing with the truly awful teams only hurts the latter kind of team. There’s more supply to go with the demand, and prices drop.

Now it’s September 1, and we’ll have to compare and contrast with what yesterday’s deadline would have looked like in an alternate reality.

It’s a flawed premise because there’s no way to quantify the we’re-going-for-it bump. After the Blue Jays traded for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the current players would have eaten a scoreboard, piece by piece, if management asked them to. After the Royals traded for Ben Zobrist and Johnny Cueto, they kept winning and winning and winning. How much did the vote of confidence, the feeling that reinforcements were going to help everyone get through the long pennant race, help those two teams? Seems like a lot. But there’s no way to tell.

We’ll make our best guess, though. Here, then, at what some teams would have done differently at the non-waiver trade deadline if it were Monday afternoon instead of July 31.

At the actual deadline: Two games out of the wild card
Currently: 1 1/2 games up in the AL East
What they would have done differently if the non-waiver trade deadline were Aug. 31: Not a whole lot

The only difference with what the Blue Jays did at the trade deadline would have to do with the prospects they gave up. With fewer teams in the mix for a top-tier pitcher -- the Giants would have far less interest in just one starter, considering they’re 4 1/2 games out and roughly half the starting lineup is broken -- the Price trade would have gone down. Unless the Jays wanted to maximize their return and give up additional premium prospects to get that extra month of help. We don’t know what the dynamic pricing would be for teams looking to beat the August deadline.

They still would have made a splash, even after their memorable run valued them to the top of the AL East. The only question is if the memorable run would have happened at all if they were still futzing around with a trade deadline.

At the actual deadline: Six games up in the AL East
Currently: 1 1/2 games down in the AL East, four games up in the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Made more moves

According to Giants announcer Mike Krukow, when a reliever is in a real mess and the pitching coach goes out to talk to him, the discussion isn’t about strategy or moral support. Instead, the pitching coach walks up, says, “Wake up and pee. The world’s on fire,” and then trots back to the dugout. I’ve always liked that image. There’s a poetry to it.

The Yankees would have woke up and peed on Monday because the world was on fire.

This assumes that the Blue Jays still made their serious run, even though they might not have had David Price or Troy Tulowitzki. I’m torn on that, mostly because the reason the Jays have been so successful is that everyone else on the team has been electric. I’ll assume, though, that the Yankees’ precious six-game lead is way, way down. There was a bit of prospect-clutching from the Yankees at the deadline, and that probably had to do with the padding they had in the East.

Without that lead, though, I’m guessing they would have been very active on the starting pitcher market. This might be the team with the biggest regrets at the deadline. They still have good odds to get to the play-in game, but a team this old shouldn’t want to rely on a single-game miracle to get to the real postseason.

At the actual deadline: Two games out of the Wild Card
Currently: 5 1/2 out of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Sell, sell ,sell

Chris Davis would have been the best power bat on the market. It’s possible the Orioles would have tried their luck and traded relievers away for prospects, then reloaded the bullpen in the offseason. It would have been a much different vibe, and they would have kept Zach Davies, who was the pretty okay prospect traded for Gerardo Parra.

Note: The Blue Jays and Orioles had the same record at the trade deadline.

At the actual deadline: Three games out of the Wild Card
Currently: 3 1/2 games out of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Not a danged thing

The Rays were mostly quiet at the deadline, selling off a valuable-but-minor parts in David DeJesus and Kevin Jepsen, but not touching the rest of the roster. They were never in full-rebuild mode, and they didn’t really have the pending free agents to get there. They’ll be back next year, and their deadline strategies would have hinted as much in August as they did in July.

At the actual deadline: Nine out of the Wild Card
Currently: 7 1/2 out of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Nothing

They would have had more time to buy costumes and wigs for Hanley Ramirez and try to pass him off as a hot young prospect, but that’s about it.

At the actual deadline: Two games up in the Wild Card
Currently: One game out of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Something/anything?

The Twins weren’t aggressive at the deadline, possibly because they were thinking the same thing we were: “There’s no way this team is really this good.” They couldn’t come out and say as much, but that’s what their deadline strategy indicates. It was a subtle hint that 2016 might be where the real prize is.

Except they stuck around. They were leading the Wild Card race just a couple days ago. The obvious upgrade, once Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano became an internal trade deadline of sorts, would have been the rotation. While I’m not sure what they would have given up for the month of help, every little bit would push them toward the postseason they weren’t supposed to sniff.

They seem like a total Mike Leake team, you know.

At the actual deadline: 3 1/2 games out of the Wild Card
Currently: Eight games out
What they would have done differently: Nothing

There would have been a lot less would they/could they/should they about the deadline, and the prospects might have been less impressive with just a month less in the season, but that’s about the only change. They aggressively dismantled the 2015 team to reload for 2016, and they did a fine job of it.

If you’re looking for evidence that the Blue Jays and Royals were helped with their respective votes of confidence, you might find it with the Tigers. They collapsed into a twitching heap after giving up on the season, even if it was the right decision.

At the actual deadline: 3 1/2 games out of the Wild Card
Currently: 6 1/2 games out of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Everything

You fools. If you’re looking for evidence that the psychological effects of buying and selling are impossible to quantify, look at the White Sox. They gave their team a vote of confidence, and the team bullied and made fun of the vote of confidence until it cried. They would have traded Jeff Samardzija when his value was at its lowest, but at least it would have been something. They’re probably not even going to get a draft pick for him because they won’t want to risk the $16 million.

At the actual deadline: Six games out of the Wild Card
Currently: Four games out
What they would have done differently: Not a whole lot

Pretty sure that the Indians wouldn’t have turned into buyers, even though they’ve just finished an excellent month (17-12). They didn’t trade away any of their vital pieces, so it’s not like holding on to Michael Bourn would have gained them a game in the standings.

At the actual deadline: Eight games up in the AL Central
Currently: 13 games up
What they would have done differently: Nothing

The Royals were already making moves like it was August. They might have given up less for Cueto and Zobrist (who weren’t cheap), but the strategy would have remained the same: Get an ace, get a super-utility player.

At the actual deadline: Two games up in the AL West
Currently: Three games up
What they would have done differently: Nothing

Carlos Gomez is pressing, and with the benefit of hindsight, maybe the Astros wouldn’t have given up quite as much for their new centerfielder, but the overall strategy would have been to buy, buy, buy. The extra month of trade-deadline happiness wouldn’t have changed that.

At the actual deadline: Six back in the AL West, four back in the Wild Card
Currently: Three games back in the West, one game up in the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Been more active?

The Rangers had the oddest sensible strategy at the deadline, preferring to part with prospects to acquire a subsidized Cole Hamels for the 2016 pennant race. Except the team went berserk in August, going 18-10 and climbing into postseason contention. If the deadline were on Monday, the Rangers probably would have been more active, not necessarily settling for whatever made it through waivers (like Mike Napoli).

At the actual deadline: Two back in the AL West, four games up in the Wild Card
Currently: 7 1/2 back in the West, 3 1/2 back in the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Panicked in the middle of the slide and made a huge move

This one takes some imagination, but here goes. The Angels were okay making minor moves for players like David DeJesus because they had the safety net of the Wild Card. They were in the front spot, with a safety net of the second Wild Card under the safety net of the first Wild Card, and they were still in a division race.

At some point, probably after getting swept by the White Sox in Chicago, they would have freaked out and made some serious moves. They would have been limited by the relative depth of their farm system, but there would have been a sense of urgency that wasn’t there at the end of July.

It might have been too late by then, and this team might not be very good -- they were the only team in baseball not to score 100 runs in August, and only the Mariners and Braves allowed more runs -- so it might have been a blessing that the sense of panic came too late. They probably saved whatever prospects they still have.

At the actual deadline: Very far back
Currently: Very far back
What they would have done differently: Nothing

At least they’re inching closer to an under-.500 Pythagorean record. It was truly horrifying to see them with a top-tier imaginary record. If Billy Beane is willing to sell important players when he’s expecting to contend, nothing would have changed in a month’s worth of non-contending misery.

The biggest difference probably would have been that the Royals might not have given up as much for a month of Ben Zobrist, although that’s questionable considering the Royals were retooling for a postseason run, not for help making the postseason.

At the actual deadline: Eight games back of the Wild Card
Currently: Eight games back of the Wild Card
What they would have done differently: Nothing, apparently

It’s not like the Mariners were overstuffed with tradeable pieces. I suppose there’s some fanfic to write about a possible Nelson Cruz trade, and the bounty of prospects that might have come back from the Royals, but if the Mariners weren’t ever going to consider that. They had one chip, Hisashi Iwakuma, and they held on to him because they want to keep him after the season. Which is reasonable, if boring.

The Yankees were the team that would have benefited most from an August deadline, with the White Sox right behind them for different reasons. The Angels would have been hurt, most likely, along with every last team trying to peddle veterans for prospects. A month less of David Price really shouldn’t cost as much, and the Tigers would have felt it.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the National League. Are the Padres still in the thick of a pennant race? We’ll just have to take a critical look.

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