How MLB’s expired posting system may delay Shohei Ohtani’s arrival

Shohei Ohtani, one of the most sought-after baseball players to come out of Japan in years, is about to make the jump to the United States. Or at least he’s trying to, and there’s a whole bunch of money he’s about to lose because he’s not waiting a few years and avoiding the caps teams must abide by when signing young international players.

There are a few things that could hold an Ohtani deal up, but right now the most apparent one is the lack of a posting system in place between MLB and two major international leagues, one being Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league (NPB), of which Ohtani is a part.

The previous posting system recently expired, and officials from Nippon, MLB, and the MLBPA haven’t agreed on a new posting system as of yet.

But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. What, exactly, is the posting system, and why isn’t there one right now? Here, a brief explainer about this entire situation.

What is the posting system?

The posting system is a system that operates between two major international leagues and MLB: Nippon Professional Baseball in Japan and the Korea Baseball Organization in, well, Korea.

It was created after various loopholes and gaps were exploited in the ‘90s and early aughts that either disadvantaged international teams or screwed over players. So a system was created that provided the Japanese or Korean team with a lump “posting fee,” paid by the team that signs a player moving to MLB, so that they don’t send a player to the US for nothing.

The posting fee is chosen by the Nippon team where the player is coming from, and cannot exceed $20 million. The highest-profile player to have been posted under that system is Masahiro Tanaka, currently on the Yankees and posted for the max fee of $20 million.

Most fans may be more familiar with the previous system, which had teams anonymously bid, with no maximum, on a player in order to get the opportunity to exclusively negotiate with him. The updated, most recent system allowed players to possibly negotiate with multiple teams at once and helped small-market teams sign players thanks to the capped posting amount.

When did the last agreement expire, and what if a new one can’t get done right away?

Tuesday, Oct. 31st. There is currently no posting agreement in place, but any players that transfer before one is locked in again are expected to do so under the outlines of the previous agreement.

This would entail the same $20 million max posting fee, a posting period from Nov. 1st to March 1st, and the ability for multiple teams to negotiate with a player. Those teams — which right now look like the Rangers, Twins, and Yankees — would also still be subjected to the international bonus pool limitations when paying Ohtani, which should net him $3 million or less.

What are the possible outcomes for a new system?

Essentially, there are three parties that want different things out of an agreement.

The Players Association wants the players to benefit financially just as much from posting fees as the Japanese (or Korean) teams do and may advocate for the posting fee to be swapped to a percentage of a potential deal, so that the posting fee isn’t so starkly different than what the player is getting paid (Nippon would not want that). Or that once the posting fee is paid, there’s also no limit on what Ohtani can be paid.

MLB wants things to stay mostly the same, with players being able to choose when they want to come over but knowing that the money they can make will vary depending on when that is.

NPB teams want close to what MLB wants, which is the posting fee to stay the same because then they get up to $20 million when a star player leaves their club. But him getting free agent dollars or not doesn’t matter all that much to their bottom line, so they are presumably less concerned about that than MLB.

In the end, it will probably be close to what the previous agreement entailed, at least for Ohtani, if only so things can be in place sooner rather than later and his deal can get done with everyone happy. Even if it won’t say it out loud, MLB wants Ohtani in the league and will probably want to get this done soon so as not to drag out his transfer over.

Why does the posting system affect Ohtani’s transfer to an MLB team?

Because he isn’t 25 years old yet (he’s a fresh-faced 23) and hasn’t played six years of professional baseball, either of which would mean MLB’s spending caps wouldn’t apply to him. The posting system applies because he’s still under contract with his Japanese club. He’s still a few years away from that expiring. Waiting would net him a lot more money (like A LOT more money), but he is choosing instead to join an MLB team now.

How close to having this whole situation sorted are we, exactly?

Actually, pretty close! Reports arose on Wednesday that said Ohtani’s newly hired agents at CAA and representatives of the MLBPA are sitting down together to hash a few things out about his transfer. His lack of agents were putting a real snag in things, since there was no one at the table to negotiate for him. After that, it looks like the league and NPB will go back to the matter at hand and get a system in place that they both agree on.

There are also reports that MLB and NPB are close to an agreement to grandfather Ohtani in to the old agreement before the MLBPA meeting even happens, although the union also reportedly hasn’t been given a heads up about that, and nothing’s actually in place.