Shohei Otani plans to play in MLB in 2018

Yes, yes, the Dodgers snapped their losing streak and the Indians increased their winning streak and other important late-season things happened in MLB on Tuesday. We’ll get to that.

The huge news in the baseball world this morning isn’t about a game that was played. It’s about games that will be played in 2018 in MLB: games that will feature Japanese superstar Shohei Otani, as his intentions to come to MLB for next season are now public.

There was the possibility that the 23-year-old Otani would wait until he was a free agent two years from now to come to MLB, as it would help him avoid the posting system and the puny contract offers that the new collective bargaining agreement will limit him to. As Jeff Passan notes in the linked story above, Otani is leaving millions and millions on the table here:

Instead, MLB’s new collective-bargaining agreement limits the teams to hard-capped bonus pools between $4.75 million and $5.75 million to spend from July 2 until June of next year. A team can trade for up to 75 percent of its bonus-pool value, meaning the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, both of whom have acquired international bonus money, can have a maximum of $8.3 million. The eight teams with $5.75 million to spend can deal for up to $10.1 million total, though three of them are restricted from signing any player for over $300,000 because of penalties from exceeding past pools.

The Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Astros are among the 11 teams that cannot exceed that $300,000 threshold for a signing bonus. The Red Sox and Yankees are not two of them, and while they can’t offer the largest contracts, they’re also the Red Sox and Yankees, which might end up mattering in a market where other historic (and currently successful) clubs like the Cubs and Dodgers are potentially out of the bidding.

You might be wondering if a team could secretly agree with Otani that, once his minor league contract is purchased (because that’s what he would be signed to under this system) by the big league club, he could then negotiate an extension that would allow both sides to essentially bypass the international free agent limitations. The answer would be no, as MLB has made it clear it’s on the lookout for violations of the spirit of the rule, and, as Passan says, expects the threat of punishment for violations to keep everyone on the up and up here.

It’s a shame, too, because Otani seems like he’s going to be worth a whole lot more than he’ll be paid, whether he pitches or plays the field or does both. He hasn’t been on the mound much in 2017 due to injury, but he posted a 2.16 ERA with over 11 strikeouts per nine a year ago, and he has slugged over .500 every season since he was 19. So don’t discount the possibility of “both.”