MLB trade rumor grades: Ian Kinsler to the Brewers?

The Brewers are reportedly interested in adding Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler to their team, and you know what that means: it’s time for us to check into how believable and likely this rumor is!

ESPN’s Buster Olney is the one who originally reported that the Brewers are “digging into the possibility of acquiring” Kinsler, which, man, that’s a lot of couching in part of a single tweet. That’s the name of the game in July, though, and it’s why we’re here to break things down for you.

Ian Kinsler isn’t the hitter he used to be, and don’t laugh: time will ravage you and your skills someday as well. Kinsler is a 35-year-old second baseman with a 94 OPS+, which doesn’t sound all that impressive until you realize second basemen do not typically age even this well. The power he showed last year isn’t there, but aside from the .244 batting average, he’s actually not that far off from the early-30s version of Kinsler who did pretty well for himself with the Tigers after coming over from the Rangers.

Maybe more important than how below his norm Kinsler has been, though, is emphasizing just how much better he would be than the guy the Brewers have had soak up the most plate appearances at the keystone. Jonathan Villar has hit .223/.287/.350 in 80 games and 329 plate appearances, which is roughly half as effective as he was a year ago for them. Eric Sogard has done his best to offset this in the 23 games he’s started at second base, but, as good as he’s been this year for Milwaukee, he’s been as bad as this year of Villar in almost every other season of his career.

That’s where Kinsler comes in: he might not be as good as he used to be, but he’s reliable comparatively. Plus, it’s not like Sogard would stop playing, given the Brewers have primarily put him at second, but have also found space for him at third base, in left field, and at shortstop. The player who would end up missing the most time here is Villar, who again, is the reason the Brewers are looking for a second baseman in the first place. Filling the hole at second lets Sogard move around while also keeping the Brewers from relying on either a Villar rebound or Sogard continuing to tear the cover off the ball on the reg.

Not a whole lot, probably. That’s not to say they’ll get nothing for their second baseman if they deal him, but Kinsler is still owed whatever’s left of his $11 million from 2017, and has an $11 million option with a $5 million buyout for 2018 remaining. The Tigers could get more if they chip in financially — the Brewers’ roster is cheaper than it could be, but they’ll probably want to avoid absorbing too much money given they also still need a starting pitcher.

There is no obvious replacement for Kinsler on the Tigers’ big-league roster, but they already traded J.D. Martinez for prospects, so it’s not as if they’re holding on to hope for 2017. Getting whatever prospects they can — or shedding as many financial responsibilities for next year as they can — should be Detroit’s focus.

This one makes a lot of sense, given Sogard’s lack of production before 2017 mixed with Villar being responsible for the deepest hole in the Brewers’ lineup. Kinsler also isn’t in a situation like Justin Verlander where the money still owed to him is so huge that a deal seems unlikely even if it makes sense.

Kinsler to the Brewers is an A- rumor. It’s easy to believe it could happen, Kinsler is at a point in his career where the Tigers don’t really need to try to hold on to him any longer than they have, and the likelihood feels high given Milwaukee’s needs.