The Cubs winning the NL Central was starting to feel inevitable, given how much more they’ve looked like the terrifying Cubs of 2016 in the second half of the season. It feels a little less inevitable now, even if it’s still the most likely course of action, thanks to the Brewers and the Cardinals.
Brewers sweep Cubs, remind us NL Central race isn’t over yet
Monday’s Say Hey, Baseball looks at the increasingly tight NL Central race, the Indians’ win streak, and the Dodgers’ losing streak.
Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
The Brewers did the hard work themselves, sweeping the Cubs over the weekend to cut their NL Central deficit to just two games. The Cardinals took advantage, winning three in a row against their weekend opponent as well, which also has them just two behind Chicago.
The postseason odds don’t seem to care much about this sweep, as the Cubs are still projected to win the division at 84.5 percent. The Cardinals have a 10 percent chance, while the Brewers are down at just five percent. However, before the weekend began, Chicago was at 95.1 percent odds to win the NL Central, so Milwaukee and St. Louis did chip away at that a bit.
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The reason the Cardinals are listed as a better shot to usurp the NL Central crown is because of the schedule: they play the Cubs seven more times in 2017, even with just three weeks of regular season ball left, whereas the Brewers have one more series of four games left against Chicago. The Cardinals could beat the Cubs enough to vault over them, or they could beat them just often enough to give the Brewers the chance to leapfrop them both. Or, Chicago could handle their business and send both teams out of the division race as well as the chase for the NL’s second wild card.
It’s worth remembering, too, that these are just odds: it’s likely the Cubs don’t continue to falter and cede the division to one of the Brewers or Cardinals. However, likely is not the same as what will happen: Chicago very well could continue along their merry way and win the division by a game or two games or five games or however many games. They also could fall just short, which would mean the Brewers or Cardinals defied the odds, like the Rays did in 2011 when they felled the Red Sox despite it being seemingly impossible Boston would lose their postseason spot based on the odds.
“Seemingly impossible” isn’t the same as “mathematically impossible,” and the distinction is relevant more often than some fan bases wish it were. Remember that over the next three weeks, whether you’re a fan of any of these three teams or just the potential of chaos.
- Aaron Judge hit two homers on Sunday, making him just the second rookie in MLB history to reach the 40-homer mark. He’s got a ways to go to catch Mark McGwire for the record, though, as Big Mac hit 49 dingers in his initial campaign.
- The Indians have now won 18 games in a row, and Eric Stephen has all the details, from what’s powering the winning to how close Cleveland is to the longest win streak in MLB history. Spoiler: pretty close!
- The Indians, by the way, now have the best record in the AL to go with their home field tiebreaker over the Astros. That doesn’t mean Houston’s fans should worry about the postseason.
- Speaking of streaky details, here are eight facts about the Dodgers now 10-game losing streak.
- The Dodgers are losing too much to win the NL West, and the Cubs, as noted, are still fighting in the NL Central. The NL East, though, has been offiically decided, as the Nats clinched on Sunday.
- The A’s Double-A team is three wins away from their fourth consecutive championship, which hasn’t happened since before Double-A was even a thing.
- Clint Frazier is working his way back from injury, but his playing time isn’t guaranteed when he returns.
- It seems like the Tigers did well for themselves with the Justin Verlander trade by waiting as long as they did.
- The Angels avoided being swept by the Mariners thanks to Justin Upton’s timing, and they sit just one back of the second AL wild card.
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