With seven days remaining in the regular season, we officially know seven of the 10 playoff teams in Major League Baseball. There are still two divisions yet to be clinched, and the wild card matchups need to be finalized. That will all happen in the next week, or if we’re lucky maybe a little bit longer.
MLB playoff spots up for grabs in the regular season’s final week
Three playoff spots and two divisions still to be decided
Here is what to pay attention to this week in MLB.
Who’s in?
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals have clinched divisions in the National League, and the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the NL Wild Card Game at Chase Field in Phoenix on Tuesday, Oct. 4, a game that will be televised by TBS.
In the American League, the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros have won the Central and West, respectively. In the AL East, the Boston Red Sox lead the New York Yankees by five games, with both teams having already clinched playoff spots.
Most likely to join the party
The Chicago Cubs took three of four weekend games on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers and lead the National League Central by 5½ games over Milwaukee and six games over the St. Louis Cardinals. Chicago’s magic number to seal the division over both teams is just two, with a clinch possible as early as Tuesday.
The Minnesota Twins, who lost 103 games in 2016, swept the reeling Detroit Tigers in four games over the weekend and lead the Los Angeles Angels by 4½ games and both the Texas Rangers and Kansas CIty by 5½ games for the second American League wild card spot. Minnesota can potentially clinch a playoff berth — which would be its first postseason appearance since 2010 — by Tuesday.
The one real race remaining
While October could feature a number of promising matchups, the races down the stretch have not been very compelling, to say the least. But there is one chance for some final-week drama, thanks to the three-team melee that is the National League wild card race.
Arizona has already secured the top wild card spot, so this race is to see the team that will head to Phoenix on Oct. 4. The Colorado Rockies have been in playoff position for literally every day this season either leading the division or holding one of the two wild card positions, and they are in the driver’s seat here, leading the Brewers by two games and the Cardinals by 2½.
The Rockies are trying to return to the postseason for the first time since 2009.
Colorado is home for the final six games of the regular season, but the key to the race just might be that final weekend series.
Second NL Wild Card race
Team | W-L | Pct | GB | Remaining games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado Rockies | 84-72 | 0.538 | --- | 3 vs. Marlins, 3 vs. Dodgers |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 82-74 | 0.526 | 2 | 3 vs. Reds, 3 at Cardinals |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 81-74 | 0.523 | 2½ | 4 vs. Cubs, 3 vs. Brewers |
The Brewers and Cardinals face off for three games beginning Friday at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. If the Rockies keep the door open a little longer, that final series could be huge.
This race is also our best chance at seeing a potential tiebreaker game on Monday, Oct. 2, the day after the regular season ends and what is now an off day. We haven’t seen a tiebreaker game in four years, after a relatively steady stream with four such games in seven years (2007-2009, 2013).
The dream scenario is a three-team tie, which would give us even more extra baseball, explained by Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com on Thursday:
In the three-team tie, we’d have to have the three teams choose/receive A, B and C designations, with Club C traveling to face the winner of the game between Clubs A and B to determine who advances to the Wild Card Game. These designations would be based off winning percentages against the other tied teams. As of this writing (subject to change, because the Brewers and Cardinals face each other in the last series of the season), in the event that the Rockies, Brewers and Cardinals were all tied at season’s end, the Brewers (12-11 vs. Cards and Rox) would have their first choice of A, B or C, and the Cardinals (11-11) would choose second (the Rockies went a combined 6-7 vs. the Brewers and Cards).
The race for seeding
The Dodgers own the best record in baseball (99-57), with a 4½-game lead over the Nationals (94-61) for the top seed in the National League, and a Division Series against the wild card game winner. Los Angeles’ magic number over the Nationals is just three, meaning we will likely see Washington matched up with the Cubs in the NLDS.
Cleveland has won an absurd 29 of their last 31 games, and at 98-57 paces the American League, 2½ games ahead of the Astros (95-60). The Indians’ magic number to clinch the top seed in the AL is just four.
The All-Star Game no longer determines home-field advantage for the World Series — now that is decided by record — so how these teams finish could affect things come the Fall Classic. Just one game separates the Dodgers and Indians for the best record in baseball.
Coincidentally, the Dodgers, Indians, Astros, and Nationals all still have a chance at 100 wins. There has never been more than three teams win 100 games in the same season, and there hasn’t been a season with three such teams since 2003.
In the American League wild card race, the Yankees (86-69) — if they don’t win their division — have a magic number of only two to ensure they would be the home team against the Twins (82-74). The AL Wild Card Game will be played on Tuesday, Oct. 3 and will be televised by ESPN.
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