Corey Kluber’s only problem is that postseason baseball is merciless

Let’s take a moment and think back to 2016. Cleveland was in the World Series, and they were there in large part due to their ace Corey Kluber, who seemed basically unstoppable. Through his first five postseason starts, including his first in the World Series, Kluber threw 30-1/3 innings while allowing just three runs, thriving despite pitching on short rest.

Then, he made his second World Series start, and everything unraveled. The Cubs would win that Game 7 and their first World Series championship since 1908 in part because Kluber lasted just four innings while allowing four runs and six hits — two of them homers after he had given up just one homer the entire postseason. Kluber also somehow didn’t strike out a single Cubs batter that evening, despite 35 punch outs already in the playoffs.

That seemed like a blip, the result of Kluber being ridden so hard just to get to the World Series in the first place. When he led the American League in ERA the following season, throwing 203 innings with the best walk-rate in the AL to go with a 202 ERA+, that Game 7 start seemed even more like a result of fatigue.

Then the 2017 postseason began, though, and Kluber once again was susceptible to the long ball: he lasted just 2-2/3 innings against the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALDS while allowing two homers and six runs, and then managed just 3-2/3 frames while allowing another two homers in the decisive Game 5, which Cleveland would go on to lose.

There was concern Kluber was pitching hurt during the postseason, but if he was, there wasn’t any trace of it during the summer of 2018. Kluber didn’t lead the league in ERA again, but he did lead in innings with 215, while once again allowing the fewest walks per nine innings of anyone in the AL. He’s a candidate to repeat as the Cy Young winner, even, but just like last October, you wouldn’t have known it watching the Division Series.

Kluber looked like his usual self early against the powerful Astros, but then everything came apart at the seams in a hurry. Kluber allowed three homers and failed to get out of the fifth inning after George Springer and Jose Altuve both went deep that frame. Since that initial five-start run of absolute brilliance in his postseason career, Kluber has managed just 15 innings of work in the next four starts, with a 10.20 ERA, 12 strikeouts, and nine homers allowed.

Nothing seems quite right in those last four starts, despite being spread out over three seasons. Kluber is walking more batters (five in 15 innings, which for the AL’s skimpiest starter, is a lot), allowing more hits, and, most noticeably, giving up dingers at a damaging rate. There’s no clear, easily seen reason why, either: Kluber dominated in the postseason until he did not, and he’s an unstoppable force during the regular season in between those instances of did not.

It’s just four starts, but he’s also very aware of them: a story ran at MLB’s website earlier this week headlined “Putting past behind, Kluber ready for redemption,” and it’s full of quotes from the Indians’ starter. The takeaway, though, is that Kluber remains dismissive of the idea that anything was wrong with him, health-wise, last postseason.

And maybe nothing was wrong with him in 2017. Kluber might be fantastic, but he was facing the Yankees, a team full of patient, powerful sluggers. Kluber might not give up a ton of homers usually, and he might be stingy with the walks, but the Yankees hit 241 dingers a year ago and had team on-base percentage of .339. The former led the majors, the latter led the American League.

Similarly, on Friday, Kluber failed in Game 1 against the Astros, but that victory for Houston was number 104 of the year, and three of their best players — two of them two of the best hitters in the game — went deep. This is the postseason, where the very best face the best. Kluber made opposing lineups look like amateurs for most of October 2016, and opposing lineups have made him look that way since.

Maybe Kluber is a little more fatigued in October, just by nature of the volume of innings he throws. He’s 32, and this is his fifth consecutive season with at least 203 innings pitched in the regular season, never mind the extra workload of the last three Octobers. Justin Verlander, as dominant as he’s been all year at age 35, looked pretty mortal in the sixth inning against Cleveland on Friday, too, but his bullpen bailed him out before his line for the day took too much of a hit, so it’s not as noticeable in the boxscore. Getting tired happens — it’s something to manage.

My money, though, would be on the competition aspect, rather than Kluber being hurt or exhausted. Baseball is won by pitching until it’s won by hitting, and right now, against Kluber, the hitting side of things is winning. That doesn’t mean he’ll be unreliable in his next ALDS start, should Cleveland last long enough to get him the ball again, nor does it mean Kluber has trouble under the bright October lights.

Baseball is hard, and postseason baseball is even harder. It’s not a cop-out: it’s just a fact. Ask Kluber about it, like MLB reporters have, and he’ll tell you the same thing.