Every year, I write an article about the kind of team that can be cobbled together from the remaining free agents. Every year, I start that article by explaining some silly hypothetical scenario that would force a team to sign a dozen free agents or two. Every year, that little touch seems necessary.
Is there a team that could sign all of the free agents and become a hilarious, collusion-busting super team?
Well, not all of them. But lots of them.
Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images
This is not every year. Someone took the briquettes out of the hot stove and replaced them with a severed hand that’s frozen into an obscene gesture through rigor mortis. Everyone is blaming everyone else for putting the severed hand in there. The end result is that this is a much different exercise than normal. You aren’t just going to build a team to make you giggle in January. You’re going to build a team of All-Stars and dreams.
C - Jonathan Lucroy, $9M
1B - Eric Hosmer, $22M
2B - Neil Walker, $11M
SS - J.J. Hardy, $1M
3B - Mike Moustakas, $17M
LF - Carlos Gomez, $7M
CF - Jarrod Dyson, $6M
RF - J.D. Martinez, $22M
Bench - Brandon Phillips, $2M
Bench - Cliff Pennington, $1M
Bench - Chris Stewart, $1M
Bench - Rajai Davis, $2M
Bench - Jose Bautista, $5M
SP - Yu Darvish, $22M
SP - Jake Arrieta, $22M
SP - Alex Cobb, $17M
SP - Lance Lynn, $17M
SP - R.A. Dickey, $6M
RP - Greg Holland, $12M
RP - Tony Watson, $7M
RP - Sergio Romo, $5M
RP - Peter Moylan, $3M
RP - Robbie Ross, $1M
RP - Chad Qualls, $1M
RP/SP - Francisco Liriano, $4M
That’s a $223 million payroll, which...isn’t ideal. And it might be a little more, considering that I pulled some of those numbers from unspeakable places, and I might be underestimating what Scott Boras still thinks he can get for his All-Stars. But if you wanted to cut some salary to get under the luxury tax threshold — maybe go with Eduardo Nuñez instead of Moustakas, Jason Vargas instead of Alex Cobb, etc. — it’s possible, and you could still have a solid team. If you add up the projected WAR of that 25-man roster, according to Steamer, you have a team that’s roughly as promising as the Twins, Diamondbacks, or Rockies.
The problem with this exercise is there isn’t a team looking to fill 25 different roster spots. There are teams looking to add some pieces here and there.
So what this article is suggesting is that there should be one team that picks and chooses the best $100 million spending spree from the above if it can afford it.* That team can use the best of the remaining free agents to supplement the roster it’s already comfortable with.
* They can all afford it.
Which team(s) should do it?
The super-rich team that doesn’t want to go over the luxury tax
Team: Giants
Needs: Two starting pitchers, a reliever, and a defensive whiz in center
Current payroll: $190 million
Players acquired in hypothetical spending spree: Yu Darvish ($22 million), Lance Lynn ($17 million), Tony Watson ($7 million), and Jarrod Dyson ($6 million).
Why they wouldn’t do it: [spits] Because they’re yella.
Or because they don’t want to go over the luxury tax threshold. The Giants are keen on resetting their luxury tax penalties for next offseason when they can at least tempt Bryce Harper like they wanted to with Giancarlo Stanton. This hypothetical $52 million spending spree would cost them $78 million in real money after the penalties, and their first-round draft pick would be moved back 10 spots next year. They would also lose $1 million in international spending money. Not to mention that they’re already going to owe $130 million to just six players in two years, and that’s without an extension for Madison Bumgarner. More long-term deals probably aren’t their thing.
But they would have a front four that would feature Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Yu Darvish.
Still, this probably isn’t the team we’re looking for.
Unless they wanted to just sign Darvish.
I’d be cool with that.
The completely awful team that wants to not be completely awful
Team: Phillies
Needs: Starting pitching, relievers, maybe one more hitter
Current payroll: $44 million
Players acquired in hypothetical spending spree: Yu Darvish, one of Lance Lynn/Alex Cobb/Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, maybe J.D. Martinez.
Why they wouldn’t do it: [spits] Because they’re yella.
But, sure, maaaaaybe they’re a little wary of handing out big contracts to veterans who are almost certain to decline. Maaaaaaaaaaybe there’s something in the back of their mind that’s preventing that.
But as of right now, according to Spotrac, the Phillies have the lowest payroll in baseball. That seems off. Even if they were one of the only teams to spend (on Carlos Santana) this offseason, they can afford more.
Imagine a lineup like this:
Cesar Hernandez - 2B
Odubel Herrera - CF
Carlos Santana - 1B
J.D. Martinez - RF
Rhys Hoskins - LF
Mike Moustakas - 3B
J.P. Crawford - SS
Jorge Alfaro - C
And it’s backed by a rotation that now features Darvish and at least one other name-brand starter. Nick Williams kind of gets hosed in this scenario, but on the other hand: J.D. Martinez. The Phillies’ payroll goes all the way up to, like, $110 million, which puts them in the same company as the Braves and Orioles.
In two or three years, there would be the same kind of dead weight on the roster that they just got out from under, and the Phillies are likely trying to set themselves up for a big deal to someone like Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, so maybe this isn’t the year to go bananas and build a team through free agency. Maybe they’re right to be patient.
But if they wanted to, they could be incredibly fun, and they could do it in a way that wouldn’t have any consequences at all for me, who is the only person that matters in this scenario. I think it would be fun. I wouldn’t face any of the consequences if it failed. Therefore, I think the Phillies should try it.
The low-payroll team with dreams of contending
Team: Twins
Needs: At least two, if not three or four, starting pitchers
Current payroll: $96 million
Players acquired in hypothetical spending spree: Darvish, Arrieta, and, hell, just throw Martinez onto the pile, too.
Why they wouldn’t do it: They should totally do it.
But the players the Twins would be messing around with are the ones who will come with the longest deals and most years attached. Darvish is going to get five years. Arrieta is going to want what Darvish gets. And I’m not sure if the Twins really need Martinez, though they’re one of several teams that could absolutely use him.
PECOTA pegs Twins for 82 wins in 2018
You don’t think that an extra six to 10 wins from a $300 million spending spree could help the Twins as currently constructed? It has to be at least tempting for a team that doesn’t have to worry about any long-term contracts right now. Here, take a look at the payroll they have guaranteed to players in 2019 or beyond:
That is, they don’t have any money committed beyond this year. They’ll have to pay Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano at some point, but they certainly don’t right now. This is why I figured they were going to spend a lot of money this offseason. The Brewers proved me right. Where are the Twins?
The Twins should do it.
Do it, Twins.
C’mon, Twins. Do it. No, no, no. Do it.
Buy them all.
It’s settled. The Minnesota Twins are going to save this offseason and create a hilarious, collusion-busting super team. They’re going to get two or three of the best starting pitchers on the market. They’re going to get the best hitter on the market, just because.
And we’re going to be forever grateful to them.
And when it all collapses in a heap of fire in a couple of years, we get to whistle and walk away.
Still, do it, Twins. Do it.
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