Zack Cozart thinks ‘bullpenning’ will cost starters money, and he’s not wrong

The Rays have received a lot of love the past few days from MLB’s sabermetrically inclined commentariat, much by way of bullpenning aficianado, Brian Kenny. Sergio Romo, relief pitcher, started back-to-back games for the Rays, and this set off a conversation you do not want to wade into — just trust me on this, the CliffsNotes version has far less blood splatter — about whether the act of bullpenning was good strategy, good baseball, or anti-labor.

Angels’ third baseman Zack Cozart, whose team faced Romo in his consecutive starts, has come down on the side of bullpenning being anti-labor. He said as much to the OC Register on Tuesday:

“I feel like teams have an ulterior motive when they are doing this,” Cozart said before the Angels’ game on Tuesday night. “Less starting pitching means you don’t have to pay guys as much.

“It’s not like I don’t get it. I just don’t want to get where guys aren’t getting paid as much because there’s a ton of bullpen guys coming in one and after another and then all of the sudden there’s one or two guys on the staff who start.

“I’m more concerned about the financial aspect of three or four years down the road, if your whole staff is bullpenning except a couple guys, your payroll is going to go down because you don’t have to pay starters anymore.”

Cozart is not wrong! Sure, the Rays bouncing some relievers between the majors and minors is costing them money they wouldn’t spend if they just had a standard bullpen, but they’re going to prevent some starters from accruing the innings and experience that would get them raises and significant arbitration payouts. You might not see a problem in 2018, when it first begins, but this will quickly turn into a cycle of paying relievers to do the work of starters, without paying them like starters — and at the cost of starters earning starter money.

As Cozart notes, there is a strategy at play here on the field: this is an optimization plan the Rays have been trying for the first two months of the season, and it’s helped them, to a degree, stay competitve. They’re trying to win games, but they’re trying to win games without spending money, which just brings us back to the entire plan for the 2017-2018 offseason for many teams. Lowering arbitration costs will in turn lower free agent costs, as the two are intertwined: the former is an estimate based on the expected value of the latter. Teams already were devaluing mid-rotation arms this past offseason, going for relievers instead because even expensive relievers are cheaper than mid-rotation arms. Cozart isn’t just imagining a future scenario: he’s seeing the second step in a plan that’s already in motion, and the steps that come after.

You could argue the Rays aren’t doing this for the monetary reason Cozart suggests. However, please remember the Rays are one of the teams the Major League Baseball Players Association have already filed a grievance against for their failure to spend revenue-sharing funds, and that the Rays spent their offseason shipping out as much payroll as they could. It’s not a stretch to believe the Rays are trying to win while also trying not to spend money.

It can be optimal strategy while also being anti-labor. Cozart gets this. You, hopefully, also get this. And if not, and you’re happy to be riding this bullpenning train, well, enjoy this inferior, tedious version of baseball that hates its players, you’ve earned (?) it.