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UFC 209 picks and predictions: Woodley favored by most experts

Will Tyron Woodley get through Stephen Thompson in their rematch for the welterweight championship?

UFC 205: Woodley v Thompson
UFC 205: Woodley v Thompson
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Tyron Woodley’s first UFC Welterweight Championship defense didn’t go exactly as planned, but it could have been a lot worse. One fight into his title reign and he still has the belt, though he only held onto it by virtue of fighting Stephen Thompson to a majority draw at UFC 205 in November 2016.

Now Woodley and Thompson are set to rematch for the title at UFC 209 on Saturday. The event will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, and was also set to feature an Interim Lightweight Championship matchup between Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov, but that fight was cancelled due to weight cutting issues from Nurmagomedov.

All of the fighters involved with the two marquee matches on the card have impressive records in the UFC. Woodley has won his last three fights (not counting the draw to Thompson), including the knockout victory over Robbie Lawler that saw him win the title. Thompson has just one loss in his career, back in 2012, and has won his last seven fights.

Other main card fights include a middleweight showdown between former champion Rashad Evans and Dan Kelly, a lightweight bout between Lando Vannala and David Teymur and the main card will get started with a heavyweight fight between Alistair Overeem and Mark Hunt.

As far as experts are concerned, there are varying opinions. Over at CBS Sports, they have four experts picking the main card fights, and they have it 3-1 for Woodley, 3-1 for Evans, 4-0 for Vannata, and 3-1 for Hunt.

Over at Fox Sports, they’re going with Overeem, Vannata, Evans, and Woodley. The folks at Bleacher Report have it 2-2 for Overeem, 4-0 for Vannata, 4-0 for Evans, and 3-1 for Woodley.

Here at SB Nation, we’re also going with the majority on these fights. Vannata is a much more complete fighter than Teymur and can win the fight in a number of areas. Evans is a long time removed from his prime, but his competent striking and stifling wrestling should be able to hold him through the match with Kelly.

The Overeem vs. Hunt fight is harder to call. Overeem, despite being a striker, isn’t known for his strong defense and Hunt hits as hard as anybody out there. But he is the more varied and complete fighter and if he fights smart, he should get the win.

Woodley has all the tools to hold down Thompson and if he fights smart, he can be much more dominant than he was in the first outing.

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