2013 NASCAR Daytona 500 weather forecast: Still scattered showers Sunday

The weather forecast for Sunday’s Daytona 500 hasn’t changed much in the last 48 hours. The forecast continues to show a chance of scattered rain showers and even an isolated thunderstorm for Sunday afternoon.

The reason we have this threat of rain is due to a cold front that pushes south Saturday night and then stalls across Florida. This stalled boundary will be the focus of scattered rain and thunderstorm activity. The main questions I have with this forecast are how far south does the front stall, and will one of these showers or storms hit the track and cause delays for the Daytona 500?

The above graphic shows the forecast for 1 p.m. Sunday afternoon and 7 p.m. Sunday evening from two of the main forecast models meteorologists use. They pretty much say the same thing: a chance of showers during the afternoon and evening. Where they differ is on placement of a cold front that will stall across northern or central Florida and how much precipitation is possible. When I look at these forecast models I don’t see the solid area of light green; I see the chance of a shower or two in that highlighted area. If the area over Daytona was as dark of green as you see in the bottom right corner, then I would be more concerned of a very wet day.

The above image is a still from a forecast model and depicts what it thinks the radar will look like at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday. This has the stalled cold front farther north with the scattered precipitation. I think this gives a really good idea of what could happen. There is a lot of dry area, and the showers that are shown are broken. The only thing we don’t want to see is that front stalled right over Daytona International Speedway.

DO WE RACE SUNDAY? Yes, I think we race Sunday and it will be official, meaning we don’t race on Monday. That could also mean a rain-shortened race, but at this point I am still around 70 percent confident we see a complete Daytona 500.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS WE HAVE A TOTALLY RAIN-FREE RACE? This is a little harder to answer. It’s possible, but based on the forecast I’d say the odds of a totally rain-free race are somewhere between 30 percent and 40 percent.

WHAT’S MONDAY’S FORECAST? I honestly don’t think there is a need for this forecast, but people have asked so I thought I’d mention it. It looks about the same as Sunday. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms.

SATURDAY:
10:30 a.m ET
Sprint Cup Series Final Practice – Partly sunny, warm and humid – temp: 78
11:30 a.m ET
Sprint Cup Series Final Practice – Partly sunny, warm and humid – temp: 82
1:15 p.m ET
Nationwide Race – Partly sunny, warm and humid – temp: 84

SUNDAY:
11 a.m ET
Daytona 500 Pre-race – Mostly Cloudy, chance of a shower – temp: 74
Noon ET
Daytona 500 Pre-race – Mostly Cloudy, possible shower, chance of isolated t’storm – temp: 75
1 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly Cloudy, scattered shower, chc. of isolated t’storm – temp: 75
2 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly Cloudy, scattered shower, chc. of isolated t’storm – temp: 76
3 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly Cloudy, scattered shower, chc. of isolated t’storm – temp: 76
4 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly Cloudy, scattered shower, chc. of isolated t’storm – temp: 74
5 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly Cloudy, scattered shower, chc. of isolated t’storm – temp: 73

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