Charlotte is must-win for Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jimmie Johnson

In a scenario that seemed unfathomable when the Chase for the Sprint Cup began, a trio of prohibitive championship contenders find themselves facing a must-win proposition Saturday night at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

Following separate crashes a week ago at Kansas Speedway, Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are buried in points, likely needing a win to skirt playoff elimination. With two races remaining in Round 2, it would seem that there would be enough time to recover and advance.

That isn’t the case, however. Not with the schedule moving to Talladega Superspeedway next week. Nowhere are drivers’ fates less in their control, where the “Big One” doesn’t discriminate and calamity lurks on every second of every lap.

If Keselowski, Johnson or Earnhardt are to move on in the Chase, the most realistic option resides with them winning the Bank of America 500 on Saturday. Otherwise, all bets are off.

“For us, this is a very Homestead-like weekend,” Keselowski said. “We need to perform. This is our last chance to really control our destiny in the Chase for this round and we want to make the most of this opportunity.”

Said Johnson: “The mindset is really to come in and try to take a trophy out of here. That really solves our problem in the points that we have right now.”

With 10 combined victories, Keselowski, Johnson and Earnhardt were among the most prolific winners through the regular season. Each came into the Chase as viable contenders to reach the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway as one of four drivers eligible for the championship. Instead it’s now more probable that one, if not all three, will be bounced from the Chase by the time the checkered flag waves at Talladega.

“We would love to see them eliminated because they are our biggest threats going forward,” said Chaser Denny Hamlin, fifth in points. “If they’re eliminated then you don’t have to beat them.

“Definitely the road to the championship gets much easier when those type of guys are eliminated early.”

Even in spite of their uncertain situation, the trio remains optimistic.

Keselowski banks on the fact his team has consistently been at its best on mile-and-a-half tracks, which Charlotte is, as he and teammate Joey Logano are the only drivers with multiple victories this season. Whereas Johnson, the defending series champion, points to how well his team responds to challenges.

“This team loves adversity,” Johnson said. “This team thrives on it. And there is no quit in us, so we’ll keep digging.”

But it is Earnhardt who’s expressed the most confidence. Many times throughout the weekend, uncharacteristically, he has been outspoken about his team’s chance to win.

“We’re going to win this race,” Earnhardt said in an ESPN interview. “I really got a good feeling about it. This is what we’ve got to do anyway to try to get further points and try to win the championship. I just got a good feeling.”

Earnhardt better hope he proves prophetic. Otherwise, his playoff hopes hinge ominously on Talladega. And no driver wants to head to NASCAR’s most unpredictable track with his playoff fortunes hanging in the balance. Not even Earnhardt, who has five Talladega victories to his credit and is regarded as one of the best restrictor-plate drivers in the garage.

“You can’t really go into Talladega with the same confidence because it’s such a lottery there on how in the hell you are going to finish,” said Earnhardt. “I want to make it happen now. I feel like I’ve got a better chance today, this week than I do in Talladega even with the success we’ve had there.”