Talladega is all-or-nothing for Dale Earnhardt Jr., Brad Keselowski, Jimmie Johnson

On the surface it all seems so straightforward. If Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr. or Jimmie Johnson can win Sunday they will advance in the Chase for the Sprint Cup and put a near-disastrous Round 2 behind them. If they don’t, their playoffs are likely over far sooner than expected.

There is, however, nothing simple about that quandary, as things are never uncomplicated involving any race at Talladega Superspeedway. Not this year in the new championship format, not this week coming off a tumultuous race at Charlotte Motor Speedway, and not ever at NASCAR’s most unpredictable track.

That Keselowski, Earnhardt and Johnson find themselves on the brink of elimination is a scenario few envisioned when the Chase began. Along with high-level consistency, the trio won nearly 40 percent of the races in the regular season. It was expected that at least two, if not all three, would advance to the final race of the year with a shot at the championship.

But an assortment of issues has hindered them in the Chase’s second round. All three crashed in the Round 2 opener at Kansas Speedway, and none of them secured the solid result they needed last week at Charlotte.

Earnhardt was slowed by a broken gear shifter and finished 20th. Johnson gambled on pitting late and dropped from fifth to 17th. Meanwhile, Keselowski’s night came undone due to a run-in with Matt Kenseth that carried over to a post-race scuffle between the two in the garage. He finished 16th.

So it comes down to Talladega to decide their respective playoff fortunes. Although they could theoretically move on by climbing high enough in points, that scenario is unlikely. Eighth-place Kasey Kahne is 19 points clear of Keselowski and 26 ahead of Earnhardt and Johnson. That deficit is significant enough that the only viable means of advancing is a victory in the Geico 500.

“We can do it; we have won there a lot of times,” Earnhardt said. “I know what we need to do. We will just have to build a fast car and hope that we don’t have any gremlins and try to go out there and win it.”

But winning at Talladega is fraught with challenges.

Foremost is that just about everyone has an equal chance of victory due to the draft and use of restrictor-plates, which sap engine horsepower and result in large packs of cars forming. And those packs provide no means of escape, often producing wrecks that swallow vast numbers of drivers, many of whom were just in the wrong place at the wrong time. Talladega is often described as NASCAR’s version of the lottery, an apt description given that circumstances out of one’s control dictate the outcome.

“One mistake or one parts failure or something on any of those cars could affect you,” said Carl Edwards, who can clinch a spot in Round 3 by finishing 18th or better Sunday. “You’re not just subject to your own mistakes or your own problems, but being in a pack like that makes it very easy to finish 40th even if you’re doing everything right. It is a tougher race to guarantee a good finish.”

To find success at Talladega, a driver must avoid trouble, put oneself in a position to be near the lead in the closing laps, and have luck on their side. It’s a formula Earnhardt has used many times en route to eight career restrictor-plate wins (five at Talladega and three at Daytona International Speedway), second only to Jeff Gordon (12 wins) all-time.

But despite his restrictor-plate prowess, even Earnhardt isn’t infallible at Talladega. In the May race he sacrificed track position to pit for fuel, dropping from the lead with 38 laps remaining. Then, mired in traffic and not comfortable running mid-pack in a gaggle of cars, Earnhardt elected to drop back and concede defeat.

It was a conscious conclusion made with the security of knowing he had already qualified for the Chase. He wanted to preserve a strong car and avoid a repeat of Oct. 2012, when he sustained a concussion in a last-lap crash at Talladega. Earnhardt later admitted he regretted the decision, but it highlights how circumstances can quickly conspire against a driver and turn certain success into failure. It’s a lesson Keselowski knows all too well himself.

In that same spring Talladega race, Keselowski crashed while leading after cutting across the nose of Danica Patrick’s car. Following repairs Keselowski returned to the track multiple laps down, insisting on running up front in an attempt to claw back into contention. Instead, he triggered a 14-car Turn 4 pileup that included Johnson and Matt Kenseth, Keselowski’s Charlotte antagonist.

The stakes are considerably higher this go-around. Unlike in May, one of 26 regular season races, Keselowski, Earnhardt and Johnson will not be afforded additional opportunities to atone. Sunday is all about one thing: winning. Anything less and a once-feasible championship becomes just an unfulfilled goal with no hope of turning into reality.