NASCAR Talladega 2014: Strategies vary on how to avoid the ‘Big One’

On a track where trouble hovers like an overbearing mother-in-law, the question facing every driver in Sunday’s Geico 500 is how they can best avoid the wreck that often consumes a multitude of cars in its wake.

What’s maddening is there is no one conclusive strategy to assure victory and a trouble-free race at Talladega Superspeedway. Some drivers insist on running at the front of the field, with the hope they will be ahead of the inevitable. Others prefer the back. That way they afford themselves enough time to escape the carnage.

Both game plans present pros and cons.

“I’ve put a lot of time and thought into my approach for this weekend,” Jimmie Johnson said. “There really isn’t a clear vision for how to make it work. Racing for it can get you in trouble. Riding can get you in trouble.”

Drivers near the lead tend to be more aggressive and protective of their position. As being the leader requires one to play defense and look more in the rearview mirror than out the windshield. Brad Keselowski wrecked in May while leading when he cut across the nose of Danica Patrick, who was moving to Keselowski’s inside.

But dropping too far back can also be problematic. A new rules package has made it hard for drivers to pass, making track position more critical than years past. In May, Dale Earnhardt Jr. led 26 laps and was in control before a late pit stop dropped him mid-pack. Unable to maneuver effectively through traffic, Earnhardt coasted to a 26th-place finish.

Competing for a spot in the third round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, Earnhardt vows not to make a similar mistake Sunday. If he is to advance, Earnhardt in all likelihood needs a win, and has said he will be aggressive in that pursuit. His plan of action is to maintain a presence among the leaders.

“We need to be in the front and we need to be controlling the restarts at the end of the race -- being able to choose the inside or outside line and who’s going to be pushing you on those particular starts,” Earnhardt said. “With this particular package, the leader is not impossible to pass, but he really has the upper hand. With our cars and how capable I know our cars are and have been throughout the season at plate tracks, I know we can fend off pretty much most challenges that we’re presented with.”

Along with Earnhardt, Keselowski and Johnson are in must-win mode, unlikely to make it to Round 3 of the Chase without a victory. Not wanting to tip his hand, Keselowski won’t disclose how he’ll approach Talladega. Johnson, meanwhile, isn’t certain.

“I don’t know. I really don’t,” Johnson said. “Maybe being cautious early will buy us some time and keep us on the road. From the halfway point of the race on, you have to fight for track position if you want to win.”

Said Keselowski: “Talladega is very easy to over think. I would rather over think it than under think it.”

That fear of the “Big One” whenever NASCAR pays a visit to Talladega is both understandable and overriding. Only two of the past seven races have not featured a wreck involving six or more cars. The May Talladega race saw a 14-car pileup knockout heavy hitters like Johnson, Tony Stewart, Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon.

Adding to the sense of dread lurking in the garage is the knowledge that “Big One” is nearly unavoidable. Be it in the front, middle or the back of the field, one bobble can set off a chain reaction combining chaos and calamity.

“I know what could happen here, I’ve been on every part of it,” Ryan Newman said. “I’ve had a car lying on top of me and finished third; I’ve landed on top of a car and not finished. I’ve had a little bit of everything happen to me. And I’m not saying I’ve had everything because something else will happen.”

Even those with little to lose have debated on what’s the best strategy to utilize. Securely in Round 3 based on a win last week at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Kevin Harvick could park on Lap 1 and still move on.

But after conversations with crew chief Rodney Childers throughout the week, the pair finally settled on racing for the win Sunday. The reasons: Childers doesn’t want to break his team’s rhythm, and if Harvick can win it could prevent Keselowski or Johnson, both potential championship contenders, from transferring.

“The mindset went to completely aggressive after the win last weekend,” Harvick said. “Obviously, there are some people who are in a pretty vulnerable spot unless they win. Being aggressive, trying to lead laps, taking those points away, winning the race and not allow that automatic bid going forward is really the main goal.

“If it works out, it works out. That’s the thing that comes out of last week. If it works out, fine. And if doesn’t, fine. Just race hard.”