Handicapping the Chase for the Sprint Cup contenders

After nine races, surviving three rounds of eliminations and outlasting 12 other competitors, just four drivers remain in the Chase for the Sprint Cup. In what is essentially a winner-take-all race, one of Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin or Ryan Newman will emerge Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway as the 2014 champion -- a feat none of the four have accomplished in their respective careers.

Car: No. 22 Team Penske Ford

2014 wins: Five

Homestead wins: Zero

Homestead average finish: 20.8 (five starts)

Best points finish: Eighth (2013)

Impact a championship would have on legacy: When he burst onto the NASCAR scene expectations were high for Logano, who was given the unfortunate nickname of “Sliced Bread” (as in best thing since). After a rough and unfulfilled few years with Joe Gibbs, Logano moved to Team Penske last season and flourished. Now 24 years old and entering the prime of his career, a championship would justify the immense hype that accompanied his arrival.

Interesting note: At 19 years, 1 month, 4 days, Logano became the youngest winner of a NASCAR Sprint Cup race when he went to Victory Lane in 2009 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Reason to believe: Penske is at its best on mile-and-a-half tracks with Logano and teammate Brad Keselowski combining for five wins in 10 races this season. And in those 10 races no driver has scored more points that Logano, whose worst result is a crash-induced 14th at Atlanta.

Reason to doubt: Logano is expected to be Harvick’s stiffest competition, but unlike the 14-year veteran, Logano has never been in this position before. Until proven otherwise, nerves could be a factor.

Car: No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Chevrolet

2014 wins: Four

Homestead wins: Zero

Homestead average finish: 8.1 (13 starts)

Best points finish: Third (2010-11, ‘13)

Impact a championship would have on legacy: Long regarded as one of NASCAR’s top drivers with victories in every marquee race, the thing missing on Harvick’s résumé is a championship.

Interesting note: Harvick and his wife DeLana own a sports management company, which represents several notable UFC competitors and country artists, in addition to NASCAR driver Jeff Burton and PGA golfer Jason Gore.

Reason to believe: Since the green flag dropped on the season back in February, no team has consistently shown more speed than the No. 4 group. It also doesn’t hurt that Harvick has been in this position before and tends to thrive on pressure -- witness him delivering in a must-win situation a week ago.

Reason to doubt: While the No. 4 has been fast, what it hasn’t been is reliable. Several times Harvick lost races due to either parts breaking, mistakes on pit road or just fluke happenings. Although his luck has been better as of late, any recurrence Sunday would likely see someone else leaving with the Sprint Cup trophy.

Car: No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota

2014 wins: One

Homestead wins: Two

Homestead average finish: 11.2 (nine starts)

Best points finish: Second (2010)

Impact a championship would have on legacy: In 2010, Hamlin gagged away the championship in the final two races. That disappointment took some time to overcome, but following an up-and-down four years he returns to Homestead with an opportunity for redemption. If Hamlin can win Sunday, what happened in 2010 becomes a footnote.

Interesting note: To date Hamlin is the only rookie to ever qualify for the Chase, having done so in 2006 en route to a third-place points finish.

Reason to believe: In a one-race playoff where the highest finisher takes the big prize, Hamlin is the only driver among the final four to have been victorious at Homestead.

Reason to doubt: The No. 4 and 22 cars are clearly faster than the No. 11 Toyota, and it’s hard to envision Hamlin having the necessary speed to outrun both Harvick and Logano.

Car: No. 31 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet

2014 wins: Zero

Homestead wins: Zero

Homestead average finish: 17.0 (12 starts)

Best points finish: Sixth (2002-03, ‘05)

Impact a championship would have on legacy: With 17 victories, including wins in the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400, Newman has put together a very good career. A championship, however, would change the complexion of what he’s done and elevate him from a very good driver to a likely Hall of Famer.

Interesting note: Over the entirety of season not many can say they went head-to-head with Jimmie Johnson and came out ahead. But Newman is one of the few, having beat Johnson for Rookie of the Year honors in 2002.

Reason to believe: 1983 North Carolina State Wolfpack. 2007 New York Giants. 1969 New York Mets. Alan Kulwicki in 1992.

Reason to doubt: Not every Cinderella story ends happily. And with just four top-five finishes on the year, that will in all likelihood be the case for Newman on Sunday.