Weather forecast NASCAR 2014 Daytona 500: Will it rain?

The threat of rain continues for NASCAR’s first race weekend of the 2014 season. The front that brought rain to Daytona International Speedway on Friday, delaying the start of the Camping World Truck series race, will be the same system that keeps the threat of scattered showers and storms in the forecast for today’s Nationwide race and Sunday’s 56th running of the Daytona 500.

The weather forecast for today’s Nationwide race will features clouds with occasional breaks for sunshine, and the possibility of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. Showers and even isolated storms will form during the afternoon across north Florida today, because they are scattered in nature, there is no way to determine whether or not they will move over the track.

Imagine dropping a bag of marbles onto a checkered pattern floor, and then trying to accurately predict what checkered square will have a marble land on it. That is the scenario we face this afternoon for the Nationwide race. I think we have a 60 to 70 percent chance of getting an official race in today, but there is also a chance we get a few delays caused by the weather.

Sunday’s weather forecast is even more complicated than today’s. Not only do we have stalled front to deal with but we will also have weak weather disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico and moving right along the Florida/ Georgia border during the afternoon Sunday. Some of these showers and storms could drop farther south and move over Daytona International Speedway late Sunday afternoon and evening.

DO WE RACE SUNDAY? Yes, I think we race Sunday and it will be an “official” meaning we don’t race on Monday. That also means we could see a rain-shortened race, but I am still around 60 percent confident we see a complete Daytona 500, even if the finish takes place Sunday night.

WHAT ARE THE ODDS WE HAVE A TOTALLY RAIN-FREE RACE? This is a little harder to answer. It’s possible, but based on the forecast I’d say the odds of a totally rain-free race are somewhere between 30 and 40 percent.

WILL WE SEE ANY RAIN DELAYS? Anytime rain is in the forecast for a NASCAR race there is absolutely a possibility of a delay. I think at least one delay is very possible if not two. It will comes down to where the rain develops Sunday morning and how it moves across Florida Sunday afternoon.

COULD WE RACE ON MONDAY, AND WHAT IS THE FORECAST? I’m still leaning towards an official race on Sunday but there are a few weather scenarios that could push the Great American race into Monday. If that were to happen the forecast for Monday is similar to today and Sunday with chances of scattered afternoons showers.

SATURDAY:
10:00 a.m ET
Sprint Cup Series Final Practice – Mostly cloudy, chance of a shower – temp: 69
1:15 p.m ET
Nationwide Series Race – Mostly cloudy, chance of a shower – temp: 74

SUNDAY:
11:00 a.m ET
Daytona 500 Pre-Race – Mostly cloudy, chance of a showers – temp: 77
12:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 Pre-Race – Mostly cloudy, chance of a showers – temp: 77
1:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 78
2:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 79
3:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 79
4:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 78
5:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 77
6:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 75
7:00 p.m ET
Daytona 500 – Mostly cloudy, chance of sct’d t-storm & showers – temp: 73