NASCAR 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup driver previews: Separating contenders from pretenders

Twelve months ago on the dawn of the Chase for the Sprint Cup, NASCAR found itself embroiled in a scandal unlike any the sport had ever seen.

Uncovering evidence of teams conspiring to manipulate the outcome of the regular season finale at Richmond International Raceway, and therefore who qualified for the Chase, NASCAR reacted with unprecedented sanctions. Record fines were issued, drivers who had seemingly made the playoffs were ejected and, Ryan Newman and most controversially, Jeff Gordon, were inserted into the Chase.

One year later there is no hullabaloo, only uncertainty about what’s to transpire over the next 10 weeks. Reacting in part to the machinations that ensued at Richmond, as well as an effort to generate more excitement, NASCAR radically restructured its playoffs during the offseason.

The Chase now features a larger field (four additional participants), incorporates eliminations where four drivers are taken out of contention after every three races (Dover, Talladega, Phoenix) and the season finale will see four contenders enter level in points with whoever finishes best at Homestead-Miami Speedway winning the championship.

How the new wrinkles unfold is anyone’s guess. The only certainty at this juncture is the proceedings are far less controversial than last year and the race to the championship is as wide-open as any in recent memory.

Regular season synopsis: A year ago Keselowski’s title defense was short lived as he suffered the indignity of failing to qualify for the Chase. Twelve months later, the 2012 Sprint Cup champion is not only in the playoffs, he’s the No. 1 seed on the strength of a series-best four victories.

The Chase will be a success if: Keselowski continues his winning ways en route to a second title in three years.

The Chase will be a failure if: With as strong as Team Penske has been throughout the season, anything short of a second championship will be deemed a disappointment.

Prediction: Keselowski makes it interesting and makes it to the final four, but comes up just short.

Regular season synopsis: Unmatched consistency and renewed chemistry with crew chief Alan Gustafson have converged to make Gordon a legitimate title contender for the first time since 2007. With three victories and the best average finish (10.0), Gordon has led the standings 18 of the past 20 weeks.

The Chase will be a success if: Thirteen years after his last championship, Gordon finally, finally claims his fifth Cup title.

The Chase will be a failure if: The high level of success that marked Gordon’s regular season disappears. Accordingly, he goes winless and fails to advance to the championship round at Homestead.

Prediction: The consistency isn’t there and a win never materializes, leaving Gordon -- to the surprise of everyone, including himself -- knocked out early.

Regular season synopsis: In his last year working with crew chief Steve Letarte, Earnhardt has excelled, posting multiple victories for the first time in 10 seasons. Not only is he winning races at a clip not recently seen, he is tied with Keselowski for the lead in top-five finishes (11) and led the points for five weeks.

The Chase will be a success if: Although a championship is not quite attainable, Earnhardt and Letarte end their union with a Chase victory and Earnhardt in serious title contention for the first time since 2004.

The Chase will be a failure if: After enjoying a carefree 2014 with little pressure thanks to a season-opening Daytona 500 victory, the No. 88 team is unable to find the needed intensity to elevate its game. Consequently, Earnhardt lays an egg and is chopped early.

Prediction: To the chagrin of Junior Nation, Earnhardt and the 88 team seem to be a step behind Keselowski, Gordon and Harvick, which means a championship is just not going to happen. Without a win and without enough points, Earnhardt is eliminated at Phoenix.

Regular season synopsis: Featuring the obligatory multiple visits to Victory Lane, 2014 was business as usual for the defending and six-time champion. Although he didn’t have the pervasive dominance of years past, Johnson still had his moments, including a statement triumph in the Coca-Cola 600 and a first career win at Michigan.

The Chase will be a success if: Only a record-tying seventh championship will be suffice for a driver who is bidding to become not just the greatest of his generation, but perhaps all-time.

The Chase will be a failure if: The dents in the armor that have cropped up periodically throughout the season become more pronounced in the Chase, making a seventh title out of reach.

Prediction: Until proven otherwise, the 48 is the team to beat. Johnson grabs a pair of wins and emerges with yet another championship.

Regular season synopsis: In his second season with Team Penske, Logano exuded the talent that earned him the nickname “Sliced Bread” (as in best thing since). He grabbed career highs in wins and laps led and with 10 races to go, is on pace to surpass previous marks for top-five and top-10 finishes.

The Chase will be a success if: The regular season was just the initial step in Logano’s ascent up the NASCAR hierarchy. That doesn’t translate into a championship, but the 24-year-old makes his presence felt with a top-five points finish.

The Chase will be a failure if: Not able to handle the playoff pressure, Logano regresses and is a complete nonfactor.

Prediction: Usually a driver has to be in contention before they take that proverbial next step, and that’s what Logano does this year. He wins once and finishes in the top half of the standings, leading to an even bigger 2015 campaign.

Regular season synopsis: Quickly adapting to new his new surroundings, Harvick wasted little time making his presence felt winning the second race of the year at Phoenix and then a few weeks later the Southern 500. However, as good as Harvick was, it was the races he didn’t win that defined his regular season, as several self-inflicted mistakes by driver and crew alike prevented the No. 4 team from reaching its full potential.

The Chase will be a success if: Having jettisoned his mistake-prone pit crew in favor of Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship-winning crew guys, Harvick turns those near misses and all those laps led into actual victories.

The Chase will be a failure if: Even with a revamped team, the blunders don’t go away, and although Harvick scores another win and advances to the finals, that first championship continues to be elude him.

Prediction: The biggest weakness has been addressed, which in theory should vault Harvick to a higher plane. He may not win the championship, but Harvick is in the hunt until the very moment the checkered flag waves at Homestead.

Regular season synopsis: Though Roush Fenway Racing was immersed in a brutal almost yearlong slump, Edwards still managed to twice find the winner’s circle. That both victories came on tracks where a driver’s skill is paramount (Bristol, Sonoma) and not on speedways where aerodynamics are everything, speaks to Edwards’ ability, while underlining just how far Roush has fallen.

The Chase will be a success if: Before departing for Joe Gibbs Racing, Edwards coaxes one more victory out of a car at decided disadvantage, surviving until Round 3.

The Chase will be a failure if: With a championship far-fetched, Edwards and retiring crew chief Jimmy Fennig are looking ahead, paying little mind to the playoffs.

Prediction: Thanks to a reorganization of its engineering department, Roush has made gradual gains this season. That effort is especially noticeable on the intermediate tracks, which make up half the Chase schedule and where Edwards usually thrives. But just as Roush has improved so have other teams, meaning Edwards is going to be hard-pressed to get one last win.

Regular season synopsis: Moments of brilliance mixed with bouts of inconsistency and pettiness -- so in other words a typical Busch year.

The Chase will be a success if: An increase in horsepower and format that plays to his strengths becomes the catalyst Busch needs to finally evolve into a playoff force. It all culminates with him entering the season finale with a chance to win the championship for the first time in his career.

The Chase will be a failure if: The driver-crew chief relationship is too fractured, prompting further infighting within the 18 team. Amid the testiness, Busch’s immaturity shines through and 2014 becomes just another season where he fails to realize his vast potential.

Prediction: Busch and crew chief Dave Rogers are saying the right things publicly, but their union is in its final months. Although JGR has closed the gap on the Penske and Hendrick cars, and teammates Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin have been more competitive as of late, you wouldn’t know it looking at Busch’s performance. This is a team headed in the wrong direction at the wrong time of the year.

Regular season synopsis: A peculiar season filled with a mysterious object in the eye, a noticeable lack of zip in the engine and a crew chief serving a six-week suspension also included a caution-aided win at Talladega. And, despite all the oddities surrounding him, Hamlin is back in the Chase following a year’s absence.

The Chase will be a success if: JGR and Toyota solve its motor woes, allowing Hamlin to end the year with a fury -- much like 2009 when he had two wins, a second and a third in the final five races.

The Chase will be a failure if: Hamlin fails to win another race and continues to be hounded by a lack of consistency, leading to him exiting the playoffs sooner than expected -- perhaps as early as the first round.

Prediction: No one is harder to project than Hamlin, whose Chase can go myriad ways and none would be all that surprising. But as Bristol and Atlanta demonstrated, the No. 11 team is performing better so a single victory seems reasonable, though Hamlin still doesn’t make it past Round 2.

Regular season synopsis: After two years with mid-pack teams Busch linked up with Stewart-Haas Racing and expectations were that driver and team would find success. An April victory at Martinsville reinforced those hopes, but despite fast cars Busch never doubled up with good runs often undone by misfortune and/or mistakes.

The Chase will be a success if: The No. 41 team finally puts together a stretch of solid finishes -- Busch has placed in the top five in consecutive weeks just once -- and wins and makes it to Phoenix before being eliminated.

The Chase will be a failure if: Poor finishes at Chicagoland and New Hampshire put Busch in a serious points hole, and needing a victory at Dover to advance, he self-destructs.

Prediction: Through the early rounds a lack of consistency shouldn’t be crippling if Busch can mix in a couple of high finishes as a balance. But eventually his inconsistency will get the better of him, and he seems likely to be eliminated by Talladega.

Regular season synopsis: As teammates Gordon, Earnhardt and Johnson habitually found success, Kahne became mired in a slump that had him on the verge of not making the playoffs. But a determined effort at Atlanta where Kahne drove through the middle on a late restart to snatch the lead and eventual victory assured him a spot in the Chase for a third straight season.

The Chase will be a success if: With go-big-or-go-home as his mantra, Kahne gets hot and surges to the winner’s circle twice. His run isn’t enough to get him into the final four, but more than enough to serve as a reminder that he shouldn’t be the forgotten man within the Hendrick camp.

The Chase will be a failure if: Proving Atlanta was nothing more than a fluke, Kahne fails to do anything of consequence in the first round and gets bounced right away.

Prediction: Always capable of rolling off some wins, Kahne could conceivably play the role of spoiler. But 2014 doesn’t seem to be his year, and with Gordon, Earnhardt and Johnson all harboring realistic title hopes, Kahne takes a backseat. He squeaks through to the second round, but not to the third.

Regular season synopsis: On the cusp of getting his first career victory for a couple of years, Almirola broke through, winning the rain-shortened July race at Daytona. And it’s a good thing Mother Nature intervened as Almirola was never in real contention elsewhere.

The Chase will be a success if: With the consensus that Almirola won’t make it past the first round, anything beyond that would viewed as an accomplishment.

The Chase will be a failure if: Continuing the yearlong theme of being in the wrong place at the wrong time -- accidents have taken him out in five races -- Almirola wrecks consecutively at Chicagoland and New Hampshire. His Chase over really before it ever begins.

Prediction: Driving the iconic No. 43 for Richard Petty Motorsports, Almirola is the sentimental favorite. But sentiment doesn’t equate to speed and an ability to run up front and contend. It’s hard envisioning Almirola surviving the Dover cut.

Regular season synopsis: JTG Daugherty Racing is a single-car team without the wealth of resources afforded other organizations. As such the team wisely decided to focus on road courses where Allmendinger, due to his open-wheel background, would hold an advantage. The strategy paid off with Allmendinger punching his Chase ticket by taking the checkered flag at Watkins Glen.

The Chase will be a success if: Respectable finishes at Chicagoland and New Hampshire followed by a top 10 at Dover -- one of Allmendinger’s better tracks -- propels him to an unlikely spot in Round 2.

The Chase will be a failure if: Overmatched by NASCAR’s elite, Allmendinger and JTG struggle just to be competitive.

Prediction: Unfortunately for Allmendinger, there are no road courses in the Chase. Which means a win is out of the question, as is getting out of Round 1.

Regular season synopsis: A year removed from racking up seven victories, Kenseth is somehow winless entering the Chase. Nevertheless, he still turned in a very fine regular season, especially in light of the lack of power in the JGR motors. He easily clinched a playoff berth with one to go, and in fact, Kenseth finished with the third-most points, ahead of names like Keselowski, Logano and Harvick, and tied for second in both top fives and top 10s.

The Chase will be a success if: A horsepower shortage may preclude Kenseth from winning a second Cup trophy, but collecting a couple of wins and challenging for a spot in the final four should be viewed as an accomplishment.

The Chase will be a failure if: Kenseth gets shut out of Victory Lane completely and fails to match the performance he showed in the regular season.

Prediction: With better engines and JGR solving its intermediate track woes, Kenseth has found his stride recently. A championship may be too much, but a win and a serious push for a berth in the final four seems sensible.

Regular season synopsis: Whereas Roush teammate Edwards was able to overcome the team’s engineering difficulties and record two wins, Biffle wasn’t and had to race his way into the Chase the old fashioned way: by points. Showing significant improvement in the latter summer stretch, the No. 16 rolled off seven straight finishes of 15th or better, giving Biffle just enough cushion (seven points) to grab the final Chase spot.

The Chase will be a success if: Biffle can avoid an early elimination and with some breaks, maybe grab a win somewhere along the way.

The Chase will be a failure if: Having exhausted themselves just to gain Chase eligibility, Biffle and company do nothing in the playoffs.

Prediction: Four drivers are going to get eliminated after Dover, and with little proof to think otherwise Biffle seems a likely casualty.

Regular season synopsis: Using trademark consistency Newman wasn’t flashy -- just effective. Steadily finishing in the top half of the field just about every week -- Newman only finished 21st or worse four times in 26 races -- paid dividends as he garnered enough points to qualify in what was his first season with Richard Childress Racing.

The Chase will be a success if: The sole RCR car in the Chase means Newman becomes the focus of RCR, and he responds by quietly advancing past the first two rounds.

The Chase will be a failure if: His consistency isn’t enough in a format where winning is critical, and Newman meekly bows out of the Chase following Dover.

Prediction: Maybe he pulls a surprise and scores a win early; however, the more realistic scenario sees Newman exiting rather quickly.