New NASCAR Chase format changes championship strategy

JOLIET, Ill. -- The path to the championship used to be straightforward. Over 10 weeks the formula called for a driver to avoid awful finishes, keep the wheels on the car, the engine running and tabulate more points than anyone else.

In essence, consistency was king in the Chase for the Sprint Cup.

But thanks to a radical redesign, NASCAR’s playoff structure has morphed into a complex entity, filled with great ambiguity.

The changes, which include multiple rounds featuring drivers advancing with a victory, eliminations at three different junctures and essentially a winner-take all final, has competitors reexamining whether consistency is as critical in previous Chase editions.

“I agree it is probably confusing for a lot of people, including myself for a little while, but basically you have to run each race with the right mindset to get through the next segment,” No. 5 seed Joey Logano said. “I think you have to look at your points and how you can get to the next round after each race.”

Under the old system winning a championship required almost steady brilliance throughout.

A year ago Dale Earnhardt Jr. experienced an engine failure in the Chase opener at Chicagoland Speedway, the site of Sunday’s MyAFibStory.com 400. Earnhardt would go on to record an average finish of 5.5 in the nine remaining races, yet could climb no higher than fifth in points.

If a similar fate awaits Earnhardt Sunday, the punishment won’t be nearly as severe.

Because the Chase is divided into four segments where points are leveled out after each series of eliminations, an early blown motor or getting caught in the “Big One” at Talladega -- the second elimination race -- is no longer the death knell to a driver’s titles hopes -- provided they were victorious in one of the other two events that make up the Contender bracket or accumulated enough points.

Unless something catastrophic occurs, posting successive top 15 finishes should be enough to guarantee advancement -- especially early.

“I think a [did not finish] in the Challenger round when there are 16 guys, there is still a chance you could recover and be in the top 12 of that group,” No. 7 seed Carl Edwards said. “I think DNF’s after that will be really hard to recover from.”

Said No. 8 seed and Chicagoland pole-sitter Kyle Busch: “If you have the 15ths or better for the first round, you’re going to move on. That’s pretty simple. Then, probably, you have to have 10ths or better in the next round to be able to move. Each round it’s going to get tougher.”

Unlike the regular season where a victory carried great incentive and points were of little consequence to most, the early stages of the Chase could feature diminished urgency to win due to the decreased threat of elimination.

But the strategy of being risk averse will change radically as the field shrinks, first from 16 to 12, then gradually to eight to four before it’s just a lone driver left holding the Sprint Cup trophy.

Eventually, as the stakes continue to rise, playing it safe gives way to a singular mindset of ruthless aggressiveness where winning is the utmost importance. The question then is at what cost? Just how far will a driver go when a spot in the final four and a slot in the championship round is within reach?

“The main goal is to win the championship, not finish fifth or eighth in points,” Logano said. “You do what you need to do to get to the next round.”

It’s a balancing act that drivers didn’t have to negotiate before but now must confront.

“At the end of the day nobody knows how this is going to go,” Edwards said. “It could go any number of ways.

“It really could come down to a must-win situation especially when you get to Phoenix or something. ... It will change not just race to race but green flag run to green flag run there will be a lot of stuff happening. You almost need some statisticians to help you figure out what you need to do.”