A converging set of circumstances seemingly set the table for what many thought would be a wild, wide-open regular season finale Saturday night at Richmond International Speedway.
NASCAR Sprint Cup championship is wide open
Six drivers have separated themselves from the pack this season, but of those six who should be regarded as the championship favorite?
Todd Warshaw
That craziness fueled by desperation never materialized, as the Federated Auto Parts 400 was largely devoid of action. The most tense and most stimulating moment of the night came when an intoxicated fan decided to climb atop the fencing surrounding the track.
"It's going to be tough. You're going to have to put together some damn good races." -Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Eventually the patron was coaxed down, arrested, and the race resumed. Not that it was much of a race, thanks to the utter dominance exhibited by Brad Keselowski, who led 383 of 400 laps en route to victory.
Richmond was Keselowski’s series-best fourth victory of the season, earning him the No. 1 seed in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, and it was the kind of win that most years would garner him the status as the prohibitive playoff favorite.
But if there has been a recurring theme in 2014 it’s that there is no clear-cut title favorite. At various points, and almost on a rotating basis, Keselowski, Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson and Joey Logano have all looked worthy of being considered the favorite to drive away with the Sprint Cup trophy.
On multiple occasions all have shown ability to reach Victory Lane, an all important characteristic in a Chase format where winning guarantees advancement to the next round and ultimately, the championship. Together, Keselowski, Gordon, Earnhardt, Johnson, Logano and Harvick won 70 percent of the regular season races (18 of 26).
“I don’t think you could guess who them four guys are going to be,” Earnhardt said Saturday night. “With the way the structure is, the eliminations, you know, everybody’s got an equal shot. So I don’t think there’s any favorites. I know there’s some strong teams obviously that are running really good right now.
“It’s going to be tough. You’re going to have to put together some damn good races.”
NASCAR’s revised Chase format calls for four rounds -- featuring three races -- with four participants eliminated after the third, sixth and ninth races. A driver who wins automatically advances to the next round. And the season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway will be staged where the highest finishing driver among the final four is crowned champion.
However, while winning will be paramount, consistency will still be essential. Especially true in the early rounds, where one bad race can be overcome if not by a victory outright, then by solid finishes assuring advancement via points.
“Certainly the first two rounds, everybody has this focus on you got to win, you got to win,” Gordon said Saturday night. “That’s not true. You got to be solid. ... Put solid races together, you’re going to move forward.”
That element of consistency is something Keselowski, Gordon, Earnhardt, Johnson, Logano and Harvick each possess. And when it comes to pairing winning with week-to-week steadiness no one has done it better than Gordon.
During the course of the 26-race regular season no one accumulated more points, top-10s (17) or had a better average finish (10.0) than the four-time Cup champion. But that label of favorite is dismissed by Gordon, who dismisses such a notion saying “everybody’s in it.”
Although not exactly true, as few believe AJ Allmendinger or Aric Almirola -- both of midlevel teams with limited resources -- have much of a shot to make it to Homestead, the new Chase format does lend itself to a team getting hot and knocking off a couple of victories to secure advancement. And in a standalone, winner-take-all race, maybe that’s a recipe for a Cinderella to emerge.
More likely, the final four will consist of some combination of Keselowski, Gordon, Earnhardt, Johnson, Logano and Harvick.
“No matter what the structure is, I still believe the best team wins,” Gordon said. “I’ve always believed that and I still believe that. If it’s meant to be because you’ve prepared and you have the strong cars, the best team, I think you’re going to make it to Homestead and you’re going to win the championship.”
All that’s left to sort out is which of the six co-favorites will make it to Homestead with a chance to win the championship. Who that is exactly is anyone’s guess.
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