Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski fall from contenders to brink of Chase elimination

In the past two weeks, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski of Team Penske have combined to lead 662 of a possible 834 laps, a kind of superiority indicating each is on the path to delivering Roger Penske his second Sprint Cup championship in four years.

Neither Logano nor Keselowski, however, won at Martinsville Speedway or Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. Consequently, each enters the penultimate race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoff facing almost certain elimination unless they win -- giving Penske a high probability none of its driver will have championship eligibility in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

“It isn’t pressure, it is opportunity and I am happy to have those opportunities with a great team,” Keselowski said. “We know we need to win the next two to win the championship. The good news is we have that opportunity. That’s the way I look at it.”

NASCAR Power Rankings

1. Kyle Busch (Last week: 2)

His history of playoff ineptitude is long documented, but after consecutive top-fives at Martinsville and Texas, Kyle Busch is positioned to enter the final race of the season with a shot at the title for the first time in his career. Regardless of what anyone else does, if he finishes in the top-10 Sunday he’s a virtual lock to race for the title at Homestead.

2. Kevin Harvick (LW: 4)

With his transmission repeatedly popping out of fourth gear, what did Kevin Harvick do? Merely drive roughly the final 45 laps with one hand on the wheel and the other on the shifter, somehow still finishing third. And now it’s off to a track where he’s won four straight and five of the past six, and all he needs is a top 10 finish to make the championship round.

3. Joey Logano (LW: 1)

After sweeping Round 2, it seemed like a forgone conclusion Logano would continue either his winning ways or accumulate enough points to earn a spot in the final four. Except neither of those scenarios has transpired; a potential victory was taken away by Matt Kenseth at Martinsville and a Lap 10 tire explosion on Sunday ended his race before it ever really got started. Logano’s title hopes hinge solely on finding a way to win in Phoenix, because anything short of win will result in elimination.

4. Carl Edwards (LW: 6)

While his teammates have taken turns garnering attention for reasons both good and bad throughout the Chase, all Carl Edwards has done is quietly register good results on a near-weekly basis. He owns top 10s in six of eight playoff races -- including a fifth at Texas -- and his worst result was 15th, which came in Round 1.

5. Martin Truex Jr. (LW: 8)

Lined up second on a restart with 18 laps remaining, Martin Truex Jr. kept pace with Keselowski when the green flag dropped and looked as if he might bid for the victory. But a loose right front wheel, a lack of power steering and contact with Keselowski contributed to Truex sliding back to eighth. Nonetheless, he provisionally holds the final transfer spot, seven points ahead of Edwards and up 19 on Keselowski.

6. Jeff Gordon (LW: 5)

Having already secured his spot in the final four, Jeff Gordon and the No. 24 team used Texas as a glorified test for Homestead, as both tracks share similar characteristics. And while he lagged for much of the race, Gordon did improve as the race moved along (he finished ninth), giving promise that he should be competitive for a fifth series crown in the Nov. 22 finale.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (LW: 7)

Despite smacking the wall twice, Dale Earnhardt Jr. still rode a fast car to a sixth-place finish. Had he not overdrove and were he able to keep the No. 88 machine underneath him and out of the fence, it’s not farfetched to think he may have celebrated his first victory on a mile-and-a-half track since 2005.

8. Kurt Busch (LW: 9)

A seventh in a race where assorted issues (mostly tire related) hampered countless competitors is usually a good thing. Not so when you’re buried in points like Kurt Busch and needed a victory to skirt Chase elimination. The good news is there’s reason to think he can contend Sunday, as he ran near the front in the spring Phoenix race and netted a fifth-place finish.

9. Brad Keselowski (LW: 11)

Those closing laps are going to be something Keselowski thinks about for some time. Because on a day when he led 93 percent of the race, he failed to lead the one lap he absolutely needed to. Perhaps he could’ve attempted to throw a decisive block on Johnson down the backstretch, but even then the 48 car was faster and would have passed him eventually. To his credit, Keselowski handled the disappointment considerably well, even though barring something miraculous he will likely be dropped from the Chase Sunday.

10. Denny Hamlin (LW: 3)

Twice in three weeks mechanical gremlins have plagued Denny Hamlin, this time in the form of a fuel pickup issue. A trip to the garage for repairs meant he could only return to finish 38th, which equals his second-worst result of the season.

11. Jimmie Johnson (LW: Unranked)

Although Martinsville or Dover are commonly associated with tracks where Johnson is almost always at his utmost best, it might be time to add Texas to that list. Sunday was his sixth overall victory, fourth consecutive in the fall event and third consecutive overall (he won the sprint race earlier this season).

12. Matt Kenseth (LW: 10)

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kenseth home as the AAA Texas 500 unfolded and Team Penske, Kenseth’s frequent nemesis, saw both its drivers suffer title-crippling moments. First, Logano popped a tire and spun, incurring damage that sent him to the garage for repairs. Later, Keselowski, who led 312 of 334 laps, lost the lead to Johnson with four to go and finished second. That places both Logano and Keselowski in a virtual must-win at Phoenix, and in likelihood ensures neither will compete for the championship at Homestead.