Phoenix dominator Kevin Harvick is imposing, but not unbeatable

To honor the retiring Jeff Gordon, Phoenix International Raceway will be renamed “Jeff Gordon Raceway” for Sunday’s penultimate race of the season, which also closes out the semifinal round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoffs.

But while Gordon is getting the official recognition, in actuality Phoenix is very much the property of Kevin Harvick and the consensus within the garage is the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 is his to lose. Everyone else is merely racing for second-place.

“I do not think it’s a winnable race until Kevin Harvick gets beat,” Kyle Busch said. “He’s shown that he’s certainly got the stranglehold on the Phoenix racetrack.”

That he is the heavy favorite is not a revelation, a quick glance at Harvick’s record on the one-mile track verifies Busch’s assertion. Because if it feels like it’s Harvick and then rest of the field, well, it’s because in many ways it is.

The defending Sprint Cup champion has won four consecutive Phoenix races and five of the past six, a dominance that goes beyond just having a monopoly on Victory Lane, as he’s also led 76 percent of the laps over the past three races.

“It’s somewhere that you circle on the calendar every year as a race that you think you should have a chance at winning,” Harvick said.

If he were to win again, Harvick would not only extend his track-record to eight overall victories, but move into select company alongside Richard Petty and Darrell Waltrip as the only drivers to own five straight wins at one particular track.

Petty captured seven in a row at Richmond International Raceway (1970-73), with Waltrip accomplishing the feat twice -- seven successive at Bristol Motor Speedway (1981-84) and five consecutive at North Wilkesboro Speedway (1981-83).

Yet despite the foreboding shadow Harvick casts, one of the many lessons of this year’s Chase is there are no guarantees, even when a driver holds a distinct advantage at a particular track.

As superior Harvick is at Phoenix, Jimmie Johnson is equally so at Dover International Speedway, where he’s a 10-time winner. Accordingly, he was the favorite to win the Round 1 Chase elimination race. But instead of celebrating, a broken axel sent Johnson to the garage prematurely. Adding salt to the wound, the resulting 41st-place finish knocked him out of the playoffs.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., a maestro when it comes to restrictor-plate racing, entered the second round elimination race at Talladega Superspeedway needing a win. And just as he did in winning at Talladega in May and the July Daytona International Speedway event, he established himself as the driver to beat.

Except Earnhardt didn’t win; he finished a close second to Joey Logano and consequently was cut from the Chase.

Unlike Earnhardt, Harvick doesn’t need a win to remain in the playoffs and advance to the Nov. 22 title round at Homestead-Miami Speedway. A top-three finish along with leading a lap Sunday will ensure he transfers to the season finale.

But if the seemingly unthinkable does occur and Harvick doesn’t visit the winner’s circle, it could have a ripple effect on how the championship field is set. Depending on who triumphs, up to three of the four available spots would then be filled out via the point standings (Martinsville winner Jeff Gordon claiming one position). Provisionally Harvick is above the cut line, 10 points clear of Carl Edwards, the first driver out.

“We look at the points situation and guarantee Harvick winning that race,” said Busch, 11 points ahead of Edwards. “Then, you have to figure out who you’re racing after that to know what you have to do in order to point your way through.”

And there are indications of cracks in Harvick’s apparent invincibility.

Largely mistake free during the regular season, the No. 4 team has experienced a sloppy postseason including a cut tire that led to a subsequent crash in the Chase opener, running out of fuel while leading the following week, a pit road penalty and a sour motor in second round races at Kansas and Talladega, respectively, and two tire punctures and a broken gear shifter at Texas.

It’s not unreasonable to think Harvick could suffer a similar fate to what Johnson went through at Dover.

“The cars have been performing well,” Harvick said. “We’ve just had to overcome things week after week after week. I guess those are character-building moments, but we’ve managed to survive and advance and that’s what we’ve got to do (at Phoenix).”

And if the car remains intact, driver and crew alike avoid needless mistakes, there doesn’t seem much doubt regarding Sunday’s outcome. But even then, there are no guarantees.

“He is lights out at Phoenix,” said Kurt Busch, Harvick’s Stewart-Haas Racing teammate. “His set-up and the way he drives there, it’s a perfect combo. So, you hope he almost makes a mistake. Right now he’s been perfect it seems like over the last few years at Phoenix.”