After a pair of consecutive poor finishes Joey Logano’s only means of advancing to the championship race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup playoff is by winning Sunday at Phoenix International Raceway. Anything short, his title hopes end.
NASCAR Phoenix preview: Team dynamics complicate Chase playoffs
Three teams each with a pair of drivers are fighting for three remaining spots in the championship race.
Although mathematically Brad Keselowski could transfer to the Nov. 22 season finale without a Phoenix victory, it would require a sequence of fortuitous events that make such an occurrence doubtful.
It would seem then that if Logano and Keselowski found themselves holding the top two positions in the final laps Sunday, all bets would be off. Perhaps Logano will shove Keselowski out of the lead much like he did to Matt Kenseth last month at Kansas Speedway? Or maybe Keselowski will attempt an audacious three-wide pass similar to the one he tried on Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon during the 2014 Chase race at Texas Motor Speedway?
Either option would certainly fit the theme of this year’s playoff where cutthroat tactics and ruthless maneuvers have become commonplace.
Except any aggression that may arise is tempered by Logano and Keselowski each driving for team owner Roger Penske, and despite the high stakes involved, wrecking a teammate is almost always frowned upon.
“Racing teammates is tough, there’s nothing easy about it,” said Phoenix pole-sitter Jimmie Johnson. “The way those two cars have become so successful and fast is the way they’ve worked together, I’m sure Roger is going to continue to preach that the only way one of them will have a shot at Phoenix to advance is if they continue to work together.”
If anyone knows the difficulty going head-to-head with a teammate for a championship it’s Johnson, who did so in 2007 vs. Jeff Gordon and two years later against Mark Martin. Both times Johnson prevailed and sidestepped any contentious moments.
“If you really are duking it out for the win, you’re supposed to leave your teammate an extra inch or two,” Johnson said. “Championship’s on the line, your career is on the line. It will be interesting to see how that goes, how everybody handles the pressure.”
Thus far Logano and Keselowski have dismissed the possibility of what they would do if faced with the situation where their respective Chase fate hinged on beating the other for the win. And while Kevin Harvick, the winner of four straight Phoenix races and five of the past six, is the favorite to prevail Sunday, it’s not farfetched to think Logano and Keselowski will each be in contention.
Having swept all three races in the second bracket, Logano was on a roll that seemed set to continue as he led the most laps in Round 3 opener at Martinsville Speedway. Then a revenged-minded Kenseth intentionally wrecked him. And a blown left rear tire last week at Texas Motor Speedway cemented Logano’s current must-win predicament.
“The last three times we didn’t have an issue in the race we won,” Logano said. “That makes us pretty confident about what we can do together. We obviously know our situation, what we have to do, but we don’t change what we do every weekend because we know the recipe to go out there and win.”
Keselowski also crashed at Martinsville, only to rebound by leading 312 of 334 laps at Texas. But victory proved allusive as Johnson, already eliminated from the Chase, passed Keselowski with four laps to go and never relinquished the top position.
The Penske duo recognizes Harvick is the driver to beat at Phoenix, yet remain optimistic their playoff isn’t destined to end Sunday. Since the beginning of the second round the No. 2 (Keselowski) and No. 22 (Logano) cars have consistently been the fastest, which along with Keselowski, who’s recorded six top-six finishes in the past seven races on the one-mile track, having a successful test last month, further buoys their spirits.
“We have an equal opportunity to win the race, just like everyone else does, and to win these championships you have to win races,” Keselowski said. “Our opportunity is there. It’s a short race and it’s a track I feel comfortable on and now we just have to put it together.”
The dichotomy between racing hard for championship round berth and balancing intra-team dynamics isn’t a Penske specific issue. Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have two drivers apiece trying to remain in title contention.
If Harvick visits Victory Lane again, a distinct possibility, it would come at the expense of teammate Kurt Busch, whose only hope of advancement is contingent on winning.
Because of how good Harvick is at Phoenix, Busch is mirroring his chassis setup and the results are indicative of that. He qualified second and posted the fastest single lap in both practice sessions Saturday.
“For Kevin, he has his agenda and for us, we have our agenda,” Busch said. “The perfect day for Stewart Haas Racing would be for (his) 41 car to win and for Kevin Harvick to finish second. That would allow both of us to advance to the championship round at Homestead.”
The same dynamic is also applicable within the JGR camp. Kyle Busch, Kurt’s older brother, can move on to Homestead with a runner-up while Carl Edwards doesn’t require winning, but would need some help otherwise.
“Once the race starts, it’s every man for himself,” Edwards said. “I hope Kyle and I both make it -- that would be really fun to race him at Homestead. Like I said, once we get to the race on Sunday, it’s every man for himself.”
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